佛罗里达州东北热带风暴“亚历克斯”(01L.Alex) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-6-1 10:30 1617

最新回复 (44)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 11

    Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
    A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion 
    of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of 
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern 
    Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level 
    winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or 
    tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the 
    northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during 
    the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, 
    the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor 
    the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings 
    will likely be required for some of these areas later today.
    
    Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely 
    across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during 
    the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida 
    and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern 
    Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to 
    numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
    2022-6-3 06:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 12

    WTNT21 KNGU 022100
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (91L) REISSUED //
    REF/A/FLTWEACEN NORFOLK VA/012100Z JUN 22//
    AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 012100)//
    RMKS/
    1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.4N 87.5W TO 24.8N 82.6W
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 21.3N 87.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
    2.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
    CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
    A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
    THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
    DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
    CARRIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS
    OF 30-35 KTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS RESIDE IN THE
    NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION. AS THE
    POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
    FRIDAY, EXPECT THE STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE FAR REMOVED AND
    EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
    WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
    LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY.
    3.THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    032100Z.//
    2022-6-3 06:54 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 13

    WTNT01 KNGU 022100    
    SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 001    
    1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 001    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       021800Z --- NEAR 21.3N 87.5W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 87.5W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       030600Z --- 22.3N 87.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       031800Z --- 23.5N 86.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       040600Z --- 24.8N 84.9W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       041800Z --- 26.5N 82.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       050600Z --- 28.7N 79.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       051800Z --- 30.6N 76.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       061800Z --- 33.5N 70.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       071800Z --- 36.0N 64.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
    REMARKS:
    022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 87.5W.
    02JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 369 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED
    NORTH AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WTNT41 KNHC 022057
    TCDAT1
    
    Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
    400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
    
    Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air 
    Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low 
    pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan 
    Peninsula of Mexico.  This system is currently producing poorly 
    organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects 
    of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The central 
    pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed 
    winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center.  Due to the 
    possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with 
    impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula 
    and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical 
    Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.
    
    The initial motion is 360/3.  The system should turn northeastward 
    during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the 
    mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should 
    continue through the end of the forecast period.  The guidance is 
    in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida 
    Peninsula on Saturday.  It should be noted that the guidance 
    suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to 
    convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track 
    superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.
    
    The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very 
    uncertain.  It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum 
    winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction 
    with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant 
    development over the Gulf of Mexico.  The guidance does suggests 
    slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity 
    forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in 
    about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h.  However, these winds 
    are likely to be well removed from the center.  Interaction with a 
    mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over 
    the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.  
    Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over 
    portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the 
    Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this 
    system.
    
    
    KEY MESSAGES:
    
    1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue 
    through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
    the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.  Life-threatening flash 
    flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 
    
    2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida 
    Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and 
    urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South 
    Florida and in the Keys. 
    
    3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in 
    western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch 
    area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and 
    Saturday. 
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  02/2100Z 21.4N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
     12H  03/0600Z 22.3N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
     24H  03/1800Z 23.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
     36H  04/0600Z 24.8N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
     48H  04/1800Z 26.5N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
     60H  05/0600Z 28.7N  79.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
     72H  05/1800Z 30.6N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
     96H  06/1800Z 33.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
    120H  07/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    2022-6-3 06:56 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 14
    AL, 01, 2022060300,   , BEST,   0, 215N,  876W,  30, 1003, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  200, 100,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
    2022-6-3 01:26 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 15

    WTNT01 KNGU 030300    
    SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 002    
    1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 002    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       030000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 87.6W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 87.6W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       031200Z --- 22.5N 87.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       040000Z --- 23.9N 85.7W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       041200Z --- 25.6N 83.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       050000Z --- 27.6N 80.6W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       051200Z --- 29.9N 77.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       060000Z --- 31.6N 74.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       070000Z --- 34.2N 67.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       080000Z --- 35.9N 62.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        ---
    REMARKS:
    030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 87.4W.
    03JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 367 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED
    NORTH AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WTNT41 KNHC 030247
    TCDAT1
     
    Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
    1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022
     
    Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad 
    area of low pressure centered near the coast of the northeastern 
    portion of the Yucatan Peninsula has changed little in organization 
    this evening. Strong southwesterly shear continues to keep the
    associated deep convection confined to the east and northeast of the 
    estimated center of the system. There have been very little new 
    data to provide clarity of the system's intensity since the 
    previous advisory. However, based on the system's consistently 
    ragged appearance, it is assumed that there has been little change 
    from the 30 kt analyzed from the previous advisory. The 1003 mb 
    central pressure is based on surface observations.   Another Air 
    Force reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the low 
    overnight.
    
    The system still does not have a well-defined center, and for this 
    reason it is not yet being classified as a tropical cyclone. There 
    have been a few low-level swirls evident in satellite images 
    rotating around a larger mean center, and this center appears to 
    have been slowly meandering northward for the past several hours. 
    Models are in good agreement that the system should begin to turn 
    northeastward and increase its forward speed overnight and Friday as 
    it encounters mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should continue 
    for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is 
    a little faster than the previous one due to an overall increase in 
    forward motion by most of the models. It should continue to be noted 
    that most model solutions indicate that the center will likely 
    re-form due to convective bursts during the next couple of days, 
    which may cause some jumps in the track not indicated in the 
    official forecast. Based on the latest NHC forecast track, the 
    center of the the system should cross the southern or 
    central portion of the Florida peninsula on Saturday.
     
    The broad nature of this system combined with strong shear should 
    limit its development before reaching the Florida Peninsula. 
    However, the deep convective bursts will likely result in 
    consolidation of a low-level center sometime or the next 12 h or so
    resulting in genesis, with some slight strengthening into a tropical 
    storm indicated by late tomorrow. After crossing Florida, the system 
    is forecast to interact with an upper-trough which could allow for 
    some additional strengthening. By 120 h, the storm is forecast to 
    encounter cooler waters and should be interacting with a baroclinic 
    zone, thus transforming it into an extratropical cyclone. 
    
    Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings have been 
    issued for portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys.  
    The main impact from this system will be widespread heavy rain 
    that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the 
    southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern 
    Bahamas during the next couple of days.
    
     
    KEY MESSAGES:
     
    1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue 
    through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
    the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.  Life-threatening flash 
    flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 
     
    2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida 
    Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and 
    urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys.
     
    3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
    the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of Florida Friday night 
    and early Saturday, and are possible in the watch area elsewhere in 
    Florida Friday night through Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions 
    are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and 
    Friday night, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  03/0300Z 21.8N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
     12H  03/1200Z 22.5N  87.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
     24H  04/0000Z 23.9N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
     36H  04/1200Z 25.6N  83.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
     48H  05/0000Z 27.6N  80.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
     60H  05/1200Z 29.9N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
     72H  06/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
     96H  07/0000Z 34.2N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
    120H  08/0000Z 35.9N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     
    $$
    Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
    2022-6-3 01:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 16
    AL, 01, 2022060306,   , BEST,   0, 219N,  869W,  35, 1003, DB,  34, NEQ,   50,   50,    0,    0, 1008,  250,  45,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
    2022-6-3 07:09 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 17

    WTNT01 KNGU 030900    
    SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 003    
    1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 003    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       030600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 86.9W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 86.9W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       031800Z --- 23.5N 85.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       040600Z --- 25.3N 83.2W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       041800Z --- 27.1N 80.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       050600Z --- 29.1N 77.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       051800Z --- 31.0N 74.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       060600Z --- 32.5N 70.2W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       070600Z --- 34.1N 62.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       080600Z --- 34.8N 57.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
        ---
    REMARKS:
    030900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 86.6W.
    03JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 322 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED
    NORTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WTNT41 KNHC 030856
    TCDAT1
     
    Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
    400 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
     
    The disturbance near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula 
    appears slightly more organized this morning, with persistent deep 
    convection ongoing near and to the east of the estimated center.  An 
    Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system 
    a couple hours ago, and although they found a sharp low-level wind 
    shift, there was not yet conclusive evidence of a west wind to close 
    off a circulation.  The plane did, however, measure peak 925-mb 
    flight-level winds of 46 kt, which along with believable SFMR winds 
    of 30-35 kt, suggests that the disturbance is producing 
    tropical-storm-force winds.  The system does not get the designation 
    of a tropical storm until we have evidence that a well-defined 
    center has formed, and another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled 
    to investigate the disturbance in a couple of hours to see if that 
    has happened.
    
    Although there is uncertainty in the system's center location, the 
    disturbance appears to have turned toward the northeast with a 
    motion of 040/4 kt.  As the system gets picked up by mid-latitude 
    westerlies to its north, it is expected to accelerate toward the 
    northeast or east-northeast during the next few days, bringing it 
    across Florida within the next day or two and then over the waters 
    of the western Atlantic.  There is very little cross-track spread 
    in the guidance, which usually means there is high confidence in 
    the forecast track.  However, given that a center has not yet 
    formed, it's entirely possible that the entire suite of track 
    models could shift north or south on subsequent forecast cycles if 
    a center forms farther north or south than we're expecting.  The 
    track guidance has sped up a little on this cycle, and the updated 
    NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast in 
    an attempt to catch up to the model consensus aids.
    
    The disturbance is not expected to break free from the grasps of 
    strong 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear, which is expected to limit 
    the amount of intensification in the coming days.  More or less in 
    line with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which should have a 
    decent handle on a sprawling system like this one, the NHC 
    intensity forecast only shows the system strengthening slightly 
    during its approach to Florida and exit to the western Atlantic 
    waters.  Global model guidance suggests that the system could 
    become involved with frontal boundaries in about 4 days, and the 
    new forecast now shows extratropical transition being complete by 
    that time.
     
    Based on the latest forecast and its inherent uncertainties, 
    additional Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the east 
    coast of Florida, western Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas.
    The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy 
    rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the
    southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern
    Bahamas during the next couple of days.
     
     
    KEY MESSAGES:
     
    1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western 
    Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are 
    possible. 
     
    2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South 
    Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. 
    Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South 
    Florida and in the Keys.  Flash and urban flooding is also possible 
    across the northwestern Bahamas.
     
    3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
    western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, 
    and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm 
    conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba 
    today and tonight.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  03/0900Z 22.3N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
     12H  03/1800Z 23.5N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
     24H  04/0600Z 25.3N  83.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  04/1800Z 27.1N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
     48H  05/0600Z 29.1N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
     60H  05/1800Z 31.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  06/0600Z 32.5N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
     96H  07/0600Z 34.1N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  08/0600Z 34.8N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     
    $$
    Forecaster Berg
    2022-6-3 07:11 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 18
    AL, 01, 2022060312,   , BEST,   0, 222N,  870W,  35, 1002, DB,  34, NEQ,   50,   50,    0,    0, 1008,  250,  45,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
    2022-6-3 10:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 19

    WTNT01 KNGU 032100    
    SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 005    
    1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 005    
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       031800Z --- NEAR 22.7N 86.3W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 86.3W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       040600Z --- 24.4N 84.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       041800Z --- 26.4N 81.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       050600Z --- 28.5N 78.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       051800Z --- 30.5N 75.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       060600Z --- 32.0N 70.9W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       061800Z --- 33.1N 66.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       071800Z --- 34.0N 59.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       081800Z --- 35.5N 54.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
    REMARKS:
    032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 85.7W.
    03JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED
    NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
    //
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WTNT41 KNHC 031446
    TCDAT1
    
    Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
    1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
    
    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
    that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a 
    little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the 
    northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is 
    near 1002 mb.  However, the associated convection is poorly 
    organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the 
    strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles 
    a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band.  In 
    addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds, 
    although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection.  
    Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical 
    storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory.
    
    The initial motion is an uncertain 035/4 kt.  The system is about to 
    encounter the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the 
    guidance is in good agreement that a faster motion toward the 
    northeast should begin later today and continue through about 72 h. 
    Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system 
    across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 
    72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western 
    Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement with this 
    scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the 
    previous forecast.  It should be noted that due to the poor 
    organization, there is the possibility of the center re-forming due 
    to convective bursts, which would cause some erratic motion to 
    occur.
    
    Although 20-30 kt of westerly shear is forecast to continue until 
    the system reaches Florida, it is likely that convective bursts near 
    the center will create enough organized convection for the system to 
    become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h.  This could also cause 
    slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little 
    more strengthening is forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to 
    interaction with a mid-latitude trough.  This interaction will 
    eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be 
    complete at about 96 h.  The new intensity forecast has only minor 
    tweaks from the previous forecast.
    
    The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy 
    rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the 
    southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern 
    Bahamas during the next couple of days.
    
    
    KEY MESSAGES:
    
    1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western
    Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
    possible.
    
    2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South
    Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday.
    Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
    Florida and in the Keys.  Flash and urban flooding is also possible
    across the northwestern Bahamas.
    
    3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
    western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday,
    and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm
    conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
    today and tonight.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  03/1500Z 22.3N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
     12H  04/0000Z 23.9N  85.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
     24H  04/1200Z 25.8N  82.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
     36H  05/0000Z 27.7N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
     48H  05/1200Z 29.7N  76.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
     60H  06/0000Z 31.4N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
     72H  06/1200Z 32.7N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
     96H  07/1200Z 34.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  08/1200Z 35.5N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    最后于 2022-6-4 06:52 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
    2022-6-3 10:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 20
    AL, 01, 2022060318,   , BEST,   0, 227N,  863W,  35, 1003, DB,  34, NEQ,  150,  150,    0,    0, 1009,  250, 150,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        ONE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 005, 
    2022-6-4 06:47 回复
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