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Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later today. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2022-6-3 06:53 回复 -
WTNT21 KNGU 022100 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (91L) REISSUED // REF/A/FLTWEACEN NORFOLK VA/012100Z JUN 22// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 012100)// RMKS/ 1.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.4N 87.5W TO 24.8N 82.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS. 2.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS RESIDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION. AS THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY, EXPECT THE STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE FAR REMOVED AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. 3.THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 032100Z.//
2022-6-3 06:54 回复 -
WTNT01 KNGU 022100 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 001 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 21.3N 87.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 87.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 22.3N 87.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.5N 86.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.8N 84.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.5N 82.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.7N 79.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.6N 76.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.5N 70.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.0N 64.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 87.5W. 02JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.// BT #0001 NNNNWTNT41 KNHC 022057 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas. The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion. The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast. Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South Florida and in the Keys. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven2022-6-3 06:56 回复 -
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WTNT01 KNGU 030300 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 002 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 87.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 87.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 22.5N 87.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.9N 85.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.6N 83.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.6N 80.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.9N 77.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.6N 74.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 34.2N 67.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 35.9N 62.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/EXTRATROP --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 87.4W. 03JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.// BT #0001 NNNNWTNT41 KNHC 030247 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad area of low pressure centered near the coast of the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula has changed little in organization this evening. Strong southwesterly shear continues to keep the associated deep convection confined to the east and northeast of the estimated center of the system. There have been very little new data to provide clarity of the system's intensity since the previous advisory. However, based on the system's consistently ragged appearance, it is assumed that there has been little change from the 30 kt analyzed from the previous advisory. The 1003 mb central pressure is based on surface observations. Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the low overnight. The system still does not have a well-defined center, and for this reason it is not yet being classified as a tropical cyclone. There have been a few low-level swirls evident in satellite images rotating around a larger mean center, and this center appears to have been slowly meandering northward for the past several hours. Models are in good agreement that the system should begin to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed overnight and Friday as it encounters mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one due to an overall increase in forward motion by most of the models. It should continue to be noted that most model solutions indicate that the center will likely re-form due to convective bursts during the next couple of days, which may cause some jumps in the track not indicated in the official forecast. Based on the latest NHC forecast track, the center of the the system should cross the southern or central portion of the Florida peninsula on Saturday. The broad nature of this system combined with strong shear should limit its development before reaching the Florida Peninsula. However, the deep convective bursts will likely result in consolidation of a low-level center sometime or the next 12 h or so resulting in genesis, with some slight strengthening into a tropical storm indicated by late tomorrow. After crossing Florida, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-trough which could allow for some additional strengthening. By 120 h, the storm is forecast to encounter cooler waters and should be interacting with a baroclinic zone, thus transforming it into an extratropical cyclone. Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. The main impact from this system will be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of Florida Friday night and early Saturday, and are possible in the watch area elsewhere in Florida Friday night through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.8N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1200Z 22.5N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/0000Z 23.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 25.6N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 27.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 31.6N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 34.2N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 35.9N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi2022-6-3 01:29 回复 -
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WTNT01 KNGU 030900 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 003 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 86.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 86.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.5N 85.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.3N 83.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 27.1N 80.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.1N 77.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.0N 74.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 32.5N 70.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 34.1N 62.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/EXTRATROP VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 34.8N 57.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/EXTRATROP --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 86.6W. 03JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// BT #0001 NNNNWTNT41 KNHC 030856 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 The disturbance near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula appears slightly more organized this morning, with persistent deep convection ongoing near and to the east of the estimated center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system a couple hours ago, and although they found a sharp low-level wind shift, there was not yet conclusive evidence of a west wind to close off a circulation. The plane did, however, measure peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt, which along with believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt, suggests that the disturbance is producing tropical-storm-force winds. The system does not get the designation of a tropical storm until we have evidence that a well-defined center has formed, and another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance in a couple of hours to see if that has happened. Although there is uncertainty in the system's center location, the disturbance appears to have turned toward the northeast with a motion of 040/4 kt. As the system gets picked up by mid-latitude westerlies to its north, it is expected to accelerate toward the northeast or east-northeast during the next few days, bringing it across Florida within the next day or two and then over the waters of the western Atlantic. There is very little cross-track spread in the guidance, which usually means there is high confidence in the forecast track. However, given that a center has not yet formed, it's entirely possible that the entire suite of track models could shift north or south on subsequent forecast cycles if a center forms farther north or south than we're expecting. The track guidance has sped up a little on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast in an attempt to catch up to the model consensus aids. The disturbance is not expected to break free from the grasps of strong 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear, which is expected to limit the amount of intensification in the coming days. More or less in line with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which should have a decent handle on a sprawling system like this one, the NHC intensity forecast only shows the system strengthening slightly during its approach to Florida and exit to the western Atlantic waters. Global model guidance suggests that the system could become involved with frontal boundaries in about 4 days, and the new forecast now shows extratropical transition being complete by that time. Based on the latest forecast and its inherent uncertainties, additional Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the east coast of Florida, western Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 22.3N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1800Z 23.5N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 27.1N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 05/1800Z 31.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 32.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 34.1N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 34.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg2022-6-3 07:11 回复 -
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WTNT01 KNGU 032100 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 005 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 22.7N 86.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 86.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.4N 84.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.4N 81.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.5N 78.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.5N 75.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 32.0N 70.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.1N 66.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 34.0N 59.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 35.5N 54.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 85.7W. 03JUN22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (01L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY_WEST, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. // BT #0001 NNNNWTNT41 KNHC 031446 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the disturbance has become a little better defined over the Gulf of Mexico north of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, and that the central pressure is near 1002 mb. However, the associated convection is poorly organized, with radar data from Cuba and Mexico showing that the strong convection over the northwestern Caribbean Sea more resembles a mid-latitude squall line than a tropical cyclone rain band. In addition, the airplane has yet to report tropical-storm force winds, although it has not yet sampled the areas of stronger convection. Based on the current data, the system has not yet become a tropical storm and will remain a potential tropical cyclone on this advisory. The initial motion is an uncertain 035/4 kt. The system is about to encounter the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that a faster motion toward the northeast should begin later today and continue through about 72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 72 h, the system should move east-northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It should be noted that due to the poor organization, there is the possibility of the center re-forming due to convective bursts, which would cause some erratic motion to occur. Although 20-30 kt of westerly shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches Florida, it is likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba today and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0000Z 23.9N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1200Z 25.8N 82.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 27.7N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 31.4N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 32.7N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 34.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 35.5N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven最后于 2022-6-4 06:52 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：2022-6-3 10:53 回复 -