2208号热带风暴“米雷”(09W.Meari) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-9 02:00 1127

最新回复 (37)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 11
    WP, 90, 2022081018,   , BEST,   0, 281N, 1377E,  20, 1006, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  110,  55,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S, 
    2022-8-11 05:30 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 12
    WP, 90, 2022081100,   , BEST,   0, 287N, 1364E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  135,  55,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S, 
    2022-8-11 11:54 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 13

    WTPN21 PGTW 110130
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.6N 136.8E TO 34.7N 136.8E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 110100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 28.7N 136.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY
    LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY
    381 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY
    WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A  101951Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE
    BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    LLCC. MID-UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT
    BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS OPPRESSIVE VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE.
    AS THE VWS DECREASES THE SYSTEMS LLCC MAY BE ALLOWED TO ONCE AGAIN REFORM
    DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER. BY TAU 24 NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
    LOW 10-15KTS VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 30-31 DEG CELSIUS SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
    RECURVES TOWARDS JAPAN. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE
    VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
    TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND RECURVES TO THE EAST OVER JAPAN.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    120130Z.
    //
    NNNN
    2022-8-11 11:55 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 14
    WP, 09, 2022081106,   , BEST,   0, 288N, 1358E,  25, 1003, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  135,  55,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,       NINE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, wpC02022 to wp092022, 
    2022-8-11 06:12 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 15

    WTPN31 PGTW 110900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110121ZAUG2022//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       110600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 135.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 135.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       111800Z --- 29.3N 136.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       120600Z --- 31.0N 136.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       121800Z --- 32.9N 137.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       130600Z --- 35.2N 139.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       140600Z --- 40.7N 146.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       150600Z --- 44.6N 152.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
        ---
    REMARKS:
    110900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 135.9E.
    11AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
    AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
    2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110130).
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 110900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
    NR 001//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 28.8N 135.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOPPY AND
    DISORGANIZED ROTATION, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CIRCULATION, WITH
    FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN A BROAD ARC TO THE SOUTH OF AN
    EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
    IS ASSESSED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHILE BASED ON A
    FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, IT IS BECOMING STEADILY ROPED OUT AND DIFFICULT
    TO TRACK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC AND A 110624Z SSMIS 37GHZ
    MICROWAVE IMAGE SEEMS TO BEAR THIS OUT, AS IT SHOWED A NASCENT
    SECONDARY AREA OF CIRCULATION NEAR 28.1N 137.6E, APPROXIMATELY
    110NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC. ASIDE FROM THE
    COMPLEXITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), THE OVERALL
    ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND
    MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
    ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (VWS) ACROSS THE AREA OF THE CIRCULATION IS MODERATE (15-20 KTS),
    WHICH IS INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE FOR THE MOMENT, AND
    KEEPING CONVECTION PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. THE PRIMARY LLCC HAS
    TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY, BUT HAS SLOWED
    AND TURNED TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND LOOKS TO BE
    TURNING SOUTHWARD AS OF THE 0700Z HOUR, WHILE THE LARGER ROTATION
    IT IS PART OF CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
    WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    RADII).
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC
    IS ONGOING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THIS SECONDARY
    VORTICITY CENTER WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD, WHILE THE PRIMARY
    LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OR MOVES EASTWARD, WITH THE TWO AREAS
    ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO ONE CONSOLIDATED CORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
    24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MERGER AND CONSOLIDATION IS OCCURRING, THE
    LARGER ROTATION IN WHICH THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED, WILL
    MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, IT IS
    FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR
    CENTERED TO THE EAST, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA PRIOR
    TO TAU 48, TRACK THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO AREA, AND THEN REEMERGE
    OVER WATER AROUND TAU 60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE
    NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE,
    WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
    DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CORE MEANS THAT
    INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW THROUGH TAU 12. THE
    CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE AROUND TAU 24 IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE
    WITH A REDUCTION IN THE VWS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION UNDER
    AN UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME MARGINAL
    INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARDS THE
    TOKYO REGION AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A 200MB
    TROUGH MOVING OVER JAPAN, AND TAP INTO STRONG DIVERGENT EASTWARD
    OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL OFFSET INCREASING VWS AND ALLOW FOR A
    BURST OF INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH, AS THE SYSTEM
    PASSES TOKYO. ONCE BACK OVER WATER TD 09W WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF
    STRONG WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE
    SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM
    IS FORECAST TO BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRIOR TO
    DISSIPATION, EAST OF THE KURILE ISLANDS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
    OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH A 105NM SPREAD
    AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO WELL OVER 500NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
    PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE TIGHT, LIES TO THE
    WEST OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE FORECASTED INTERACTION
    BETWEEN THE TWO POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH TD 09W
    AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION THIS INTERACTION
    WILL CAUSE. THUS THE TRACK LIES ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE
    GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MOST
    CLOSELY TRACKING THE HWRF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS
    MEDIUM DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
    MIXED, WITH THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK OF 30 KNOTS,
    WHILE THE HWRF SOLUTION FORECASTS A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AND
    THE CTR1 RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID SHOWING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS. THE
    JTWC FORECAST LIES BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
    SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF,
    THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES AFTER TAU 48, THE
    JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS
    LOW IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS IT HINGES IN LARGE PART ON THE
    TIMING BETWEEN THE CORE CONSOLIDATION AND 200MB TROUGH INTERACTION.
    
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-11 06:13 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 16
    WP, 09, 2022081112,   , BEST,   0, 286N, 1359E,  35, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   80,    0,    0, 1009,  140,  55,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,       NINE, M, 
    2022-8-12 07:34 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 17

    WTPN31 PGTW 111500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002
       UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       111200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 135.9E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 135.9E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       120000Z --- 29.8N 136.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       121200Z --- 31.6N 136.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       130000Z --- 33.4N 137.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       131200Z --- 35.7N 139.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       141200Z --- 40.2N 146.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       151200Z --- 46.0N 151.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
        ---
    REMARKS:
    111500Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 136.0E.
    11AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
    SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 111500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR
    002//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 28.6N 135.9E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 446 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
    SHOW A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, THOUGH IT IS STEADILY
    IMPROVING. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) HAS SLID SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE MERGED WITH, OR
    WILL DO SO IMMINENTLY, WITH WHAT WAS A DEVELOPING AREA OF VORTICITY
    TO THE SOUTHEAST SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SEVEN HOURS AGO. AT
    THIS POINT, THE POSITION HAS TUCKED UNDER PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
    ACTIVITY, OBSCURING IT ONCE MORE. HOWEVER, TIMELY RECEIPT OF AN
    111234Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED THAT THE LLCC REMAINS SLIGHTLY
    ELONGATED, BUT HAS CONGEALED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
    BROADER ROTATION AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
    LIKEWISE, THE SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
    NUDGING THE INTENSITY UP TO 35 KNOTS, A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
    OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIXES WHICH RANGED BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS, AS
    IT SHOWED AN AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
    CENTER. THE LLCC HAS TRACKED GENERALLY IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH MOTION OF THE LAST THREE HOURS BEING
    TO THE NORTH, BUT TRACK MADE GOOD SINCE THE PREVIOUS POSITION IS
    ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS, AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE
    ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND MODERATE TO
    STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR ANALYSIS IS A BIT OF A DICHOTOMY,
    WITH CIMSS AUTOMATED ANALYSIS SHOWING 5-10 KNOTS OF SHEAR, WHILE
    HWRF FIELDS SUGGEST 25-30 KNOTS. CLEARLY THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
    A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR BASED ON THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
    CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND CONTINUED STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LLCC UNDER
    THE CONVECTION, WITH AN ESTIMATED SHEAR VALUE OF 15-20 KNOTS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 1140Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION WITH
    MULTIPLE VORTICES, NOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CORE HAS STARTED TO
    CONSOLIDATE, IT WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
    ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE
    STEERING RIDGE SIMULTANEOUSLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. TS 09W
    IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA BETWEEN TAUS
    36 AND 48, MOVE THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO AREA THEN REEMERGE OVER
    WATER SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. WHILE TS 09W REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE
    AMOUNT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR, IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE A
    SINGLE, MORE DEFINED LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, MODEL
    GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL HOLD FIRM FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24
    HOURS, AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, THE
    COMBINED EFFECT OF WHICH WILL BE TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
    INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY FORECAST
    TO REACH 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE BRAKES START TO LET UP BY TAU 36
    AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT
    UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A 200MB TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS
    OF DECREASED SHEAR AND DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD
    ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS
    BY TAU 48 AS THE OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE SHEAR. THIS BURST OF
    INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
    RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER IT PEAKS AT TAU 48. AS IS THE CASE CURRENTLY,
    THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC THROUGHOUT THE
    FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN
    HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION.  TS 09W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
    TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER, AS IT MOVES
    RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED MAJOR SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY BECOMES A VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW
    BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96 AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS.
    
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
    GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS
    CONSTRAINED IN A TIGHT 65NM ENVELOPE AT TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
    NORTHWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO A
    MODEST 200NM. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE
    THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CLOSELY TRACKING THE HWRF THROUGH TAU
    48. CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
    INITIAL POSITION BUT REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW
    THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
    MODEL RUN, WITH THE DECAY-SHIPS STUBBORNLY STICKING TO THEIR
    FORECAST OF LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE HWRF AND CTR1
    RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AID STILL PREDICTING A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS
    AND 90 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE CONSENSUS MEAN SITS AT A PEAK OF 50
    KNOTS. THE DETERMINISTIC COAMPS-TC (CTCX) HAS COME ON BOARD WITH A
    PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AND THE CTCX ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC
    INTENSITY NOW SHOWS A RESPECTABLE 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI PRIOR TO
    LANDFALL. WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
    CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A
    SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK BETWEEN THE TAU 36 AND 48 FORECAST POINTS.  
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-12 07:36 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 18
    WP, 09, 2022081118,   , BEST,   0, 288N, 1359E,  35,  999, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   80,    0,    0, 1007,  140,  55,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,       NINE, M, 
    2022-8-12 07:36 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 19

    WTPN31 PGTW 112100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 003
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       111800Z --- NEAR 28.8N 135.9E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 135.9E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       120600Z --- 30.4N 136.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       121800Z --- 32.2N 136.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       130600Z --- 34.4N 138.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       131800Z --- 36.6N 141.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       141800Z --- 40.6N 146.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 27 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       151800Z --- 49.7N 154.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
        ---
    REMARKS:
    112100Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 136.0E.
    11AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
    122100Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 112100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR
    003//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 28.8N 135.9E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 02 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS TUCKED UNDER A FLARE-UP IN CONVECTIVE
    ACTIVITY, AFTER HAVING BEEN FULLY EXPOSED PREVIOUSLY. THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF
    CYCLONIC ROTATION, OUTLINED BY AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
    111234Z ASCAT-B PASS, ALONG WITH THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH
    HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE
    PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASSESSED
    INTENSITY IS INLINE WITH PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF T2.5.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
    DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AN
    MODERATE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH THESE FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE OFFSET BY CIMSS AUTOMATED ANALYSIS
    SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IS THE
    INHIBITING FACTOR WHICH IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN
    CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE IN ALLOWING THE LLCC
    TO MAINTAIN UNDER THE CONVECTION.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 32 KTS AT 111235Z
       CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 111740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 25-30 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W HAD SINCE BEEN MOVING IN A SOMEWHAT
    ERRATIC MOTION BUT IS NOW BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED, AND THE
    SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY START TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, TS 09W WILL BEGIN TO
    ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE EDGE OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE TO THE
    WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
    THE NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU ENINSULA BETWEEN
    TAU 36 AND TAU 48. TS 09W REMAINS IN HIGH NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF
    25-30 KNOTS, HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
    MORE DEFIND LLCC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
    SUGGEST THE WIND SHEAR WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH TAUS 12 TO 24 ALONG
    WITH A DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL BE AN
    INHIBITING FACTOR IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING
    OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TUA 24 AND TAU 36 THE MODEL
    GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN
    APPROACHING 200MB TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF A DECREASE IN
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASE IN POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
    ALOFT, ALONG WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) WILL ALLOW
    FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KTS JUST PRIOR TO
    LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IT
    WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS
    WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM. THEN BETWEEN TAU
    72 AND TAU 96 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
    ALLOWING FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, ADDITIONALLY, THE NEGATIVE
    EFFECTS OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
    SYSTEM TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ULTIMATELY BECOMES A
    COLD CORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE KAMCHATKE
    PENINSULA.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD
    AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH ALL CONSENSUS MODELS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH
    THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THERE BECOMES MORE OF A SPREAD
    IN GUIDANCE UP TO 300NM. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
    THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 THE
    TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
    NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BY TAU 72 THE
    TRACK REMAINS INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEFORE ACCELERATING
    TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 96 FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    REMAINS INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSISTENT WITH
    PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
    INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AFTER WHICH ALL MODELS
    WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
    DUE TO THE RANGE OF MODEL INTENSITY TRENDS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
    IN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-12 07:37 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 20
    WP, 09, 2022081200,   , BEST,   0, 304N, 1362E,  35,  999, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   80,    0,    0, 1007,  140,  55,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, M, 
    2022-8-12 11:51 回复
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