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WTPN21 PGTW 110130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.6N 136.8E TO 34.7N 136.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 136.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 381 NM SOUTH OF KYOTO JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A 101951Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. MID-UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS OPPRESSIVE VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE. AS THE VWS DECREASES THE SYSTEMS LLCC MAY BE ALLOWED TO ONCE AGAIN REFORM DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER. BY TAU 24 NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 10-15KTS VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 30-31 DEG CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AS IT RECURVES TOWARDS JAPAN. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND RECURVES TO THE EAST OVER JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120130Z. // NNNN
2022-8-11 11:55 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110121ZAUG2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 135.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 135.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 29.3N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 31.0N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 32.9N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 35.2N 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 40.7N 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 44.6N 152.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 135.9E. 11AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110130). // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.8N 135.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLOPPY AND DISORGANIZED ROTATION, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CIRCULATION, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN A BROAD ARC TO THE SOUTH OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, WHILE BASED ON A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, IT IS BECOMING STEADILY ROPED OUT AND DIFFICULT TO TRACK. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC AND A 110624Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SEEMS TO BEAR THIS OUT, AS IT SHOWED A NASCENT SECONDARY AREA OF CIRCULATION NEAR 28.1N 137.6E, APPROXIMATELY 110NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC. ASIDE FROM THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND MODERATE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ACROSS THE AREA OF THE CIRCULATION IS MODERATE (15-20 KTS), WHICH IS INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE FOR THE MOMENT, AND KEEPING CONVECTION PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. THE PRIMARY LLCC HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS DAY, BUT HAS SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND LOOKS TO BE TURNING SOUTHWARD AS OF THE 0700Z HOUR, WHILE THE LARGER ROTATION IT IS PART OF CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY LLCC IS ONGOING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THIS SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHWARD, WHILE THE PRIMARY LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OR MOVES EASTWARD, WITH THE TWO AREAS ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO ONE CONSOLIDATED CORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS MERGER AND CONSOLIDATION IS OCCURRING, THE LARGER ROTATION IN WHICH THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED, WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, IT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR CENTERED TO THE EAST, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA PRIOR TO TAU 48, TRACK THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO AREA, AND THEN REEMERGE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE, WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CORE MEANS THAT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW THROUGH TAU 12. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE AROUND TAU 24 IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH A REDUCTION IN THE VWS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TOWARDS THE TOKYO REGION AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A 200MB TROUGH MOVING OVER JAPAN, AND TAP INTO STRONG DIVERGENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL OFFSET INCREASING VWS AND ALLOW FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR TYPHOON STRENGTH, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TOKYO. ONCE BACK OVER WATER TD 09W WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRIOR TO DISSIPATION, EAST OF THE KURILE ISLANDS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH A 105NM SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO WELL OVER 500NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE TIGHT, LIES TO THE WEST OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE FORECASTED INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH TD 09W AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION THIS INTERACTION WILL CAUSE. THUS THE TRACK LIES ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MOST CLOSELY TRACKING THE HWRF SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE NEAR-TERM UNCERTAINTY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK OF 30 KNOTS, WHILE THE HWRF SOLUTION FORECASTS A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AND THE CTR1 RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID SHOWING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF, THROUGH TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES AFTER TAU 48, THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS IT HINGES IN LARGE PART ON THE TIMING BETWEEN THE CORE CONSOLIDATION AND 200MB TROUGH INTERACTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-11 06:13 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 135.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 135.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 29.8N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 31.6N 136.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 33.4N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 35.7N 139.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 40.2N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 46.0N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 136.0E. 11AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.6N 135.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 446 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, THOUGH IT IS STEADILY IMPROVING. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS SLID SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE MERGED WITH, OR WILL DO SO IMMINENTLY, WITH WHAT WAS A DEVELOPING AREA OF VORTICITY TO THE SOUTHEAST SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SEVEN HOURS AGO. AT THIS POINT, THE POSITION HAS TUCKED UNDER PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, OBSCURING IT ONCE MORE. HOWEVER, TIMELY RECEIPT OF AN 111234Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED THAT THE LLCC REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, BUT HAS CONGEALED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE BROADER ROTATION AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. LIKEWISE, THE SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NUDGING THE INTENSITY UP TO 35 KNOTS, A BIT HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIXES WHICH RANGED BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS, AS IT SHOWED AN AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LLCC HAS TRACKED GENERALLY IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH MOTION OF THE LAST THREE HOURS BEING TO THE NORTH, BUT TRACK MADE GOOD SINCE THE PREVIOUS POSITION IS ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS, AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, AND MODERATE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR ANALYSIS IS A BIT OF A DICHOTOMY, WITH CIMSS AUTOMATED ANALYSIS SHOWING 5-10 KNOTS OF SHEAR, WHILE HWRF FIELDS SUGGEST 25-30 KNOTS. CLEARLY THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR BASED ON THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND CONTINUED STRUGGLE TO KEEP THE LLCC UNDER THE CONVECTION, WITH AN ESTIMATED SHEAR VALUE OF 15-20 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 1140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES, NOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CORE HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE, IT WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE STEERING RIDGE SIMULTANEOUSLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, MOVE THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO AREA THEN REEMERGE OVER WATER SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. WHILE TS 09W REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE AMOUNT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR, IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE A SINGLE, MORE DEFINED LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL HOLD FIRM FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, THE COMBINED EFFECT OF WHICH WILL BE TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE SYSTEM ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE BRAKES START TO LET UP BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A 200MB TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF DECREASED SHEAR AND DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS THE OUTFLOW OFFSETS THE SHEAR. THIS BURST OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER IT PEAKS AT TAU 48. AS IS THE CASE CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. TS 09W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER IT EMERGES BACK OVER WATER, AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ULTIMATELY BECOMES A VERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE LOW BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96 AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONSTRAINED IN A TIGHT 65NM ENVELOPE AT TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO A MODEST 200NM. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CLOSELY TRACKING THE HWRF THROUGH TAU 48. CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED DUE TO THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BUT REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, WITH THE DECAY-SHIPS STUBBORNLY STICKING TO THEIR FORECAST OF LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE HWRF AND CTR1 RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AID STILL PREDICTING A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS AND 90 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE CONSENSUS MEAN SITS AT A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. THE DETERMINISTIC COAMPS-TC (CTCX) HAS COME ON BOARD WITH A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 48 AND THE CTCX ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC INTENSITY NOW SHOWS A RESPECTABLE 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK BETWEEN THE TAU 36 AND 48 FORECAST POINTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-12 07:36 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 28.8N 135.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 135.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 30.4N 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 32.2N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 34.4N 138.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 36.6N 141.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 40.6N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 27 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 49.7N 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 136.0E. 11AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.8N 135.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS TUCKED UNDER A FLARE-UP IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AFTER HAVING BEEN FULLY EXPOSED PREVIOUSLY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF CYCLONIC ROTATION, OUTLINED BY AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 111234Z ASCAT-B PASS, ALONG WITH THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS. ADDITIONALLY, THE ASSESSED INTENSITY IS INLINE WITH PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF T2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AN MODERATE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE OFFSET BY CIMSS AUTOMATED ANALYSIS SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE FAIR AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IS THE INHIBITING FACTOR WHICH IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE AND CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE IN ALLOWING THE LLCC TO MAINTAIN UNDER THE CONVECTION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 32 KTS AT 111235Z CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 111740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W HAD SINCE BEEN MOVING IN A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION BUT IS NOW BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED, AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY START TO TRACK NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST. BY TAU 24, TS 09W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH ANOTHER STEERING RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU ENINSULA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. TS 09W REMAINS IN HIGH NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS, HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFIND LLCC OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE WIND SHEAR WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH TAUS 12 TO 24 ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TUA 24 AND TAU 36 THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 200MB TROUGH. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASE IN POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM. THEN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ALLOWING FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, ADDITIONALLY, THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ULTIMATELY BECOMES A COLD CORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE KAMCHATKE PENINSULA. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST WITH ALL CONSENSUS MODELS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THERE BECOMES MORE OF A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE UP TO 300NM. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. BY TAU 72 THE TRACK REMAINS INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 96 FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS INLINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AFTER WHICH ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. DUE TO THE RANGE OF MODEL INTENSITY TRENDS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-12 07:37 回复 -