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WTPN31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 136.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 136.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 32.1N 136.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 33.9N 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 36.3N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 39.4N 144.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 43.1N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 47.4N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 136.3E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 30.4N 136.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 343 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED OVER THE LAST 6 HRS AS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AGENCY DVORAK POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING HEAVILY IMPACTED BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STILL STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BASED ON COMPETING FACTORS OF WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY 25-30 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 112340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE WIND SHEAR WILL START TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY, DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASE IN POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM. BY TAU 72 AND TAU 96 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE KAMCHATKE PENINSULA. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINING CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THE CROSS TRACK AND ALONG TRACK VARIABILITY INCREASE IN THE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINING CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER COOLER WATERS THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 96 AND IS IN LINE WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-12 11:51 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 30.8N 136.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 136.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 32.5N 137.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 34.9N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 37.2N 142.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 40.1N 147.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 45.6N 153.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 136.7E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 30.8N 136.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 314 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE PAST DAY, HAS STOPPED MOVING NORTHWARD AND HAS INSTEAD TAKEN A HARD TURN TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. NET TRACK MOTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK HAS THUS SLOWED TO ROUGHLY FIVE KNOTS. TS 09W CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CORE ABOUT THE LLCC IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE BULK SHEAR, WHILE STILL MODERATE, HAS SLACKED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS, NOW ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) REVEAL AN UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION JUST NORTH OF TD 09W AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THIS REGION, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN EVEN MORE. JTWC HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES A MINISCULE POINT SOURCE LOCATED ABOVE TS 09W, PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTING THE FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES. REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT RIGHTWARD JOG OF THE LLCC, THE OVERALL MOTION CONTINUES NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 120348Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 120540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN AS THE RIDGE RAPIDLY SLIDES SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, TS 09W WILL TURN ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE IZU PENINSULA AROUND TAU 24, THEN MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TOKYO WAN, THEN BACK OUT TO SEA EAST OF NARITA BY AROUND TAU 30, THEN CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE CENTRAL KURIL ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, TS 09W CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE A VERTICALLY STACKED CONVECTIVE CORE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD AND ENTERS A COL REGION OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BACK OFF TO LOW LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CONVECTIVE CORE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INITIATE A SHORT BURST OF INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE VERY SHORT WINDOW DURING WHICH THE ABOVE FACTORS MUST CONGEAL, THE FORECAST PEAK IS ONLY 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LANDFALL. AFTER RETURNING TO OPEN WATERS EAST OF HONSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 200MB TROUGH, AND CROSSES INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS (LESS THAN 24C). THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT UNDERGOES ETT AND IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE WHICH OCCURS FIRST, DISSIPATION OR ETT. AT THIS POINT, THE FORECAST FAVORS TRANSITION TO A COLD CORE BAROTROPIC EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM PRIOR TO DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, WITH TRANSITION OCCURRING NO LATER THAN TAU 72, AND LIKELY BY TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST, WITH A MINIMAL 40NM SPREAD AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO ABOUT 200NM AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JGSM MODEL IS THE SOLE BLACK SHEEP OF THE FAMILY, HANGING OUT ABOUT 50NM WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 24, THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIABILITY WITH THIS RUN, WITH THE CTCX AND CTR1 BACK TO THEIR OLD TRICKS, INDICATING A PEAK NEAR 70 KNOTS, SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH LIES IN A TIGHT 10 KNOT ENVELOPE BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS. THE DECAY-SHIPS IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER ON THE LOW SIDE, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAVGEM VERSION INDICATING WEAKENING FROM THE START. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PEAKS AT 50 KNOTS, ON THE HIGH END OF THE TIGHTEST MODEL PACKING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES BROUGHT ON BY THE VERY TIGHT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL THE POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO ALIGN AND TS 09W TO INTENSIFY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-12 06:17 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 31.9N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 34.0N 137.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 36.2N 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 38.8N 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 42.3N 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 137.0E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 31.9N 136.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TS 09W REMAINS FIRMLY AND STUBBORNLY FULLY EXPOSED, WITH CONVECTION SIMPLY UNABLE TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CORE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS), THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW (TURNING ANTI-CYCLONICALLY OVER THE SYSTEM) IS BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE SYSTEM, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION. OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, TOWARDS THE ADT, AIDT AND SATCON ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 34-38 KNOTS. LATE RECEIPT OF A 121214Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS CONFIRMS 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 121051Z CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 121140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W HAS TRACKED JUST A SHADE RIGHT OF DUE NORTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. ALL EYES ARE WAITING WITH BAITED BREATH FOR THE ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOULD BE IMMINENT. ONCE THE RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD, TS 09W WILL TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD, SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU, AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN IZU PENINSULA AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO AREA AND THEN EMERGE BACK OVER WATER BY AROUND TAU 24, ACCELERATING ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH HAS INDUCED THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME REMAINING OVER OPEN WATERS TO INTENSIFY ALL THAT MUCH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE THAT AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THUS THE SYSTEM MAY YET HAVE A CHANCE AT MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW FORECAST TO REACH 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER MOVING BACK OVER THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS NORTHEAST OF HONSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC FORCING TO MAINTAIN A 45 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A COLD-CORE, GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW EAST OF HOKKAIDO BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS CONSTRAINED WITHIN A 50NM ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 24, EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO 70NM BY TAU 36. THIS TIGHT ENVELOPE WOULD SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT THE FACT THAT THE CURRENT TRACK IS DUE NORTH WITH NO SIGN YET OF A TURN TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SOME DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THE LONGER THE TURN NORTHEAST IS DELAYED, THE FURTHER WEST THE TRACK WILL SLIDE. CONFIDENCE IS THUS MEDIUM EVEN WITH THE VERY LOW MODEL SPREAD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS RUN, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE NOW LYING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS, WITH ONLY THE CTCX INDICATING A HIGHER, ALBEIT UNREALISTIC AT THIS POINT, 60 KNOT PEAK. THUS THE FORECAST HAS COME DOWN TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-13 05:39 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 35.7N 139.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 37.7N 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 40.8N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 44.8N 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 137.5E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 33.0N 136.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OF TS 09W REMAINS DECOUPLED AND FULLY EXPOSED, WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTH- TO SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LLC. THE EIR LOOP ALSO INDICATES SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A 121802Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED 6-HR EIR SIGNATURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 121701Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 121740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MEARI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR, DRAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU THROUGH TOKYO THEN EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST AFTER TAU 12. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS AT TAUS 12 TO 24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND ENTRY INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 30-KT COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS MEARI WILL DISSIPATE OR FALL BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY RIGHT AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 100NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-13 05:54 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 137.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 137.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 36.0N 140.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 39.1N 144.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 42.8N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 138.0E. 13AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 33.7N 137.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 153 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OF TS 09W IS NOW JUST PARTLY EXPOSED, AS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE LLC, WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTH- TO SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT DVORAK ESTIMATE. ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS HAS DECREASED. THIS, PLUS THE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST RESULT IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 122340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MEARI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR, DRAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU THROUGH TOKYO THEN EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERED BY LAND INTERACTION, WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS AT TAUS 12 TO 24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND ENTRY INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. ALSO BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 36, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 35-KT COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS MEARI WILL DISSIPATE OR FALL BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY RIGHT AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 55NM BY TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-13 11:43 回复 -