2208号热带风暴“米雷”(09W.Meari) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-9 02:00 1127

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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 21

    WTPN31 PGTW 120300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 004
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       120000Z --- NEAR 30.4N 136.2E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 30.4N 136.2E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       121200Z --- 32.1N 136.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       130000Z --- 33.9N 137.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       131200Z --- 36.3N 140.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       140000Z --- 39.4N 144.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       150000Z --- 43.1N 148.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       160000Z --- 47.4N 153.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
        ---
    REMARKS:
    120300Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 136.3E.
    12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    120000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND
    130300Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 120300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR
    004//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 30.4N 136.2E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 343 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 16 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED OVER THE
    LAST 6 HRS AS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME FULLY DECOUPLED FROM
    THE LLCC. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS
    A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AGENCY DVORAK
    POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CURRENTLY SET AT 35 KNOTS
    WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND
    THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL BEING HEAVILY IMPACTED BY HIGH
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STILL STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
    DEVELOPMENT BASED ON COMPETING FACTORS OF WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    (29-30C), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY 25-30
    KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 112340Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 25-30 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTH THEN
    NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
    NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE IZU PENINSULA BETWEEN
    TAU 24 AND TAU 36. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE WIND SHEAR WILL START TO
    DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
    CONSOLIDATION AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY, DUE TO THE FACT
    THAT THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR. THE
    COMBINED EFFECT OF A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASE IN
    POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
    TEMPERATURES (29-30C) WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF
    INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BY TAU 48 THE
    SYSTEM WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY ACCELERATE
    TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
    LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM. BY TAU 72 AND TAU 96 THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
    WILL INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE KAMCHATKE
    PENINSULA.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
    ON THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE JTWC OFFICIAL
    FORECAST REMAINING CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. AFTER
    TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THE
    CROSS TRACK AND ALONG TRACK VARIABILITY INCREASE IN THE CONSENSUS
    MODELS WITH THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINING CLOSE TO
    CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
    INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. BY TAU 48 AS THE
    SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER COOLER WATERS THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST
    CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 96 AND IS IN LINE WITH THE
    JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC TRACK AND
    INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-12 11:51 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 22
    WP, 09, 2022081206,   , BEST,   0, 308N, 1365E,  35,  994, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,  115,    0,    0, 1006,  125,  40,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, M, 
    2022-8-12 06:16 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 23

    WTPN31 PGTW 120900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 005
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       120600Z --- NEAR 30.8N 136.5E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 136.5E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       121800Z --- 32.5N 137.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       130600Z --- 34.9N 139.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       131800Z --- 37.2N 142.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       140600Z --- 40.1N 147.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       150600Z --- 45.6N 153.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
        ---
    REMARKS:
    120900Z POSITION NEAR 31.2N 136.7E.
    12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
    05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 120900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR
    005//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 30.8N 136.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 314 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE
    EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED
    OVER THE PAST DAY, HAS STOPPED MOVING NORTHWARD AND HAS INSTEAD
    TAKEN A HARD TURN TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. NET
    TRACK MOTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK HAS THUS SLOWED TO
    ROUGHLY FIVE KNOTS. TS 09W CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE AN
    ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CORE ABOUT THE LLCC IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT
    NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE BULK SHEAR, WHILE STILL
    MODERATE, HAS SLACKED OFF QUITE A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS,
    NOW ESTIMATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS)
    REVEAL AN UPPER-LEVEL COL REGION JUST NORTH OF TD 09W AND AS THE
    SYSTEM MOVES INTO THIS REGION, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN EVEN
    MORE. JTWC HAND ANALYSIS INDICATES A MINISCULE POINT SOURCE LOCATED
    ABOVE TS 09W, PROVIDING MODERATE TO STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
    SUPPORTING THE FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE
    SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35
    KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF AGENCY
    SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES. REGARDLESS OF THE
    RECENT RIGHTWARD JOG OF THE LLCC, THE OVERALL MOTION CONTINUES
    NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 120348Z
       CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 120540Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
    RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN AS THE RIDGE RAPIDLY SLIDES
    SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, TS 09W WILL TURN ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD
    TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
    FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE IZU
    PENINSULA AROUND TAU 24, THEN MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
    THE TOKYO WAN, THEN BACK OUT TO SEA EAST OF NARITA BY AROUND TAU
    30, THEN CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE CENTRAL KURIL
    ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, TS
    09W CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE A VERTICALLY STACKED
    CONVECTIVE CORE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE
    SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD AND ENTERS A COL REGION OF
    RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BACK OFF TO LOW
    LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
    STRONGLY DIFFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD AND
    EASTWARD OUTFLOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD BE
    ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CONVECTIVE CORE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INITIATE A
    SHORT BURST OF INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME REMAINING
    OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE VERY SHORT WINDOW DURING WHICH THE ABOVE
    FACTORS MUST CONGEAL, THE FORECAST PEAK IS ONLY 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24
    AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LANDFALL. AFTER RETURNING TO OPEN WATERS
    EAST OF HONSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    (ETT) AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED 200MB TROUGH, AND
    CROSSES INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS (LESS THAN 24C). THE SYSTEM WILL
    ALSO BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT UNDERGOES ETT AND IT WILL BE A RACE
    TO SEE WHICH OCCURS FIRST, DISSIPATION OR ETT. AT THIS POINT, THE
    FORECAST FAVORS TRANSITION TO A COLD CORE BAROTROPIC EXTRATROPICAL
    SYSTEM PRIOR TO DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, WITH TRANSITION
    OCCURRING NO LATER THAN TAU 72, AND LIKELY BY TAU 60.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
    EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST, WITH A
    MINIMAL 40NM SPREAD AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO ABOUT 200NM AT THE END
    OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JGSM MODEL IS THE SOLE BLACK SHEEP OF
    THE FAMILY, HANGING OUT ABOUT 50NM WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
    GUIDANCE PACKAGE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC
    TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
    THROUGH TAU 24, THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER
    WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIABILITY
    WITH THIS RUN, WITH THE CTCX AND CTR1 BACK TO THEIR OLD TRICKS,
    INDICATING A PEAK NEAR 70 KNOTS, SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE REMAINDER
    OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH LIES IN A TIGHT 10 KNOT ENVELOPE BETWEEN
    40-50 KNOTS. THE DECAY-SHIPS IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER ON THE
    LOW SIDE, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAVGEM VERSION INDICATING WEAKENING
    FROM THE START. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST AND PEAKS AT 50 KNOTS, ON THE HIGH END OF THE
    TIGHTEST MODEL PACKING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM
    HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES BROUGHT ON BY THE VERY TIGHT
    WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL THE POSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO
    ALIGN AND TS 09W TO INTENSIFY.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-12 06:17 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 24
    WP, 09, 2022081212,   , BEST,   0, 319N, 1367E,  35,  997, TS,  34, NEQ,   70,   85,    0,    0, 1007,  120,  40,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, M, 
    2022-8-13 05:38 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 25

    WTPN31 PGTW 121500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 006   
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       121200Z --- NEAR 31.9N 136.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 136.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       130000Z --- 34.0N 137.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       131200Z --- 36.2N 140.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       140000Z --- 38.8N 144.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       141200Z --- 42.3N 149.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    121500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 137.0E.
    12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 121500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR
    006//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 31.9N 136.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TS 09W REMAINS FIRMLY AND
    STUBBORNLY FULLY EXPOSED, WITH CONVECTION SIMPLY UNABLE TO
    CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CORE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
    FLOW. WHILE SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS), THE
    ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW (TURNING ANTI-CYCLONICALLY OVER
    THE SYSTEM) IS BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD
    VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE SYSTEM, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
    AND INTENSIFICATION. OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE,
    WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
    POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
    IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
    SET AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY DVORAK
    CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, TOWARDS THE ADT, AIDT AND SATCON
    ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 34-38 KNOTS. LATE RECEIPT OF A 121214Z
    PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS CONFIRMS 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN
    PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY
    ASSESSMENT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 121051Z
       CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 121140Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL
    MOTION.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 09W HAS TRACKED JUST A SHADE RIGHT OF DUE
    NORTH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
    STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. ALL EYES ARE WAITING WITH
    BAITED BREATH FOR THE ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH ALL
    AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOULD BE IMMINENT. ONCE THE
    RIDGE STARTS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD, TS 09W WILL TURN SHARPLY
    NORTHEASTWARD, SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU, AND MAKE
    LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN IZU PENINSULA AROUND TAU 18. THE
    SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE TOKYO METRO
    AREA AND THEN EMERGE BACK OVER WATER BY AROUND TAU 24, ACCELERATING
    ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. IN
    TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
    WHICH HAS INDUCED THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME
    MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME REMAINING OVER
    OPEN WATERS TO INTENSIFY ALL THAT MUCH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER
    IS STILL HOLDING OUT HOPE THAT AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
    OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THUS
    THE SYSTEM MAY YET HAVE A CHANCE AT MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR
    TO LANDFALL. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW FORECAST TO REACH 45 KNOTS
    BY TAU 24. AFTER MOVING BACK OVER THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS
    NORTHEAST OF HONSHU, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
    ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL EXPERIENCE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC
    FORCING TO MAINTAIN A 45 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 WHILE
    BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    COMPLETE ETT AND BECOME A COLD-CORE, GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
    EAST OF HOKKAIDO BY TAU 48.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
    ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS CONSTRAINED WITHIN A 50NM ENVELOPE
    THROUGH TAU 24, EXPANDING SLIGHTLY TO 70NM BY TAU 36. THIS TIGHT
    ENVELOPE WOULD SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT
    THE FACT THAT THE CURRENT TRACK IS DUE NORTH WITH NO SIGN YET OF A
    TURN TO THE NORTH IS INDUCING SOME DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
    TRACK. THE LONGER THE TURN NORTHEAST IS DELAYED, THE FURTHER WEST
    THE TRACK WILL SLIDE. CONFIDENCE IS THUS MEDIUM EVEN WITH THE VERY
    LOW MODEL SPREAD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY
    WITH THIS RUN, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE NOW LYING BETWEEN 35
    AND 45 KNOTS, WITH ONLY THE CTCX INDICATING A HIGHER, ALBEIT
    UNREALISTIC AT THIS POINT, 60 KNOT PEAK. THUS THE FORECAST HAS COME
    DOWN TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE UPPER END OF THE ENVELOPE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-13 05:39 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 26
    WP, 09, 2022081218,   , BEST,   0, 330N, 1367E,  35,  997, TS,  34, NEQ,   35,   75,   65,    0, 1007,  110,  65,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, S, 
    2022-8-13 05:52 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 27

    WTPN31 PGTW 122100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 007
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       121800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 136.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 136.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       130600Z --- 35.7N 139.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       131800Z --- 37.7N 142.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       140600Z --- 40.8N 147.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       141800Z --- 44.8N 151.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
        ---
    REMARKS:
    122100Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 137.5E.
    12AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z
    IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 122100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR
    007//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 33.0N 136.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 203 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OF TS 09W REMAINS DECOUPLED AND FULLY
    EXPOSED, WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTH- TO SOUTHWESTWARD
    OF THE LLC. THE EIR LOOP ALSO INDICATES SUBSIDENCE AND CONVERGENCE
    ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
    DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
    WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC THAT LINED UP
    PERFECTLY WITH A 121802Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
    AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
    EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES TO REFLECT THE
    SUSTAINED 6-HR EIR SIGNATURE.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
    MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 121701Z
       CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 121740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MEARI WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE
    NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING
    STR, DRAG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU THROUGH TOKYO THEN
    EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST AFTER TAU 12. THE VWS IS
    EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
    40KTS AT TAUS 12 TO 24. AFTERWARD, COOLING SST AND ENTRY INTO THE
    BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. BY TAU 36, THE
    SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL
    TRANSFORM INTO A 30-KT COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS A DISTINCT
    POSSIBILITY THAT TS MEARI WILL DISSIPATE OR FALL BELOW JTWC WARNING
    CRITERIA AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY RIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
    GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 100NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
    IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-13 05:54 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 28
    WP, 09, 2022081300,   , BEST,   0, 337N, 1373E,  35,  998, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,   75,   30,    0, 1007,  110,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, S, 
    2022-8-13 11:43 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 29

    WTPN31 PGTW 130300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       130000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 137.3E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 137.3E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       131200Z --- 36.0N 140.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       140000Z --- 39.1N 144.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       141200Z --- 42.8N 149.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    130300Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 138.0E.
    13AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
    IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 130300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR
    008//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 33.7N 137.3E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 153 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION (LLC) OF TS 09W IS NOW JUST PARTLY EXPOSED, AS
    CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE LLC, WITH THE MAIN
    CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTH- TO SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR
    LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
    THAN THE AGENCY AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT DVORAK ESTIMATE.
    ANALYSIS INDICATES VWS HAS DECREASED. THIS, PLUS THE STRONG
    EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST RESULT IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
    MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
    
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 122340Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MEARI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
    ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR, DRAG ACROSS THE
    SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU THROUGH TOKYO THEN EXIT BACK INTO THE
    PACIFIC OCEAN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERED BY LAND INTERACTION, WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT
    INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS AT TAUS 12 TO 24. AFTERWARD,
    COOLING SST AND ENTRY INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY
    WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. ALSO BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
    EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 36, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
    35-KT COLD CORE LOW. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TS MEARI
    WILL DISSIPATE OR FALL BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AFTER ITS
    PASSAGE OVER LAND.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY RIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
    GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 55NM BY TAU 36, LENDING HIGH
    CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOW
    CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY
    DISSIPATION.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-13 11:43 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 30
    WP, 09, 2022081306,   , BEST,   0, 347N, 1383E,  30,  996, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  110,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, S, 
    2022-8-13 05:58 回复
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