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WTPN31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 34.7N 138.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 34.7N 138.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 37.4N 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 40.8N 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 139.2E. 13AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 34.7N 138.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DETERIORATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND JMA RADAR FIXES. NEAR 130550Z, THE CENTER PASSED DIRECTLY OVER OMAEZAKI (34.6N 138.2E) WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 998.3 MB. AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER SURUGA BAY, THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE BECAME MORE ILL-DEFINED AND FRAGMENTED. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS THUS FAR OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST WERE AT IROZAKI ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE IZU PENINSULA, WHICH PEAKED AT ABOUT 32 KNOTS AT 130700Z. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL JAPAN WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUSTAINING CONVECTION OVER WATER. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO HIGH (25 KNOTS) LEVELS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 130419Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 130540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STR. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVERLAND, HOWEVER, TD 09W WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS IT COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 10NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR TOKYO DIVERGING TO A 50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE DETRIMENTAL INTERACTION WITH LAND AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AFTER TAU 06. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-13 05:59 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 35.7N 140.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 140.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 38.9N 144.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 42.9N 149.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 36.5N 141.2E. 13AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 35.7N 140.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 31 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: N/A SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 131151Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH OF TOKYO. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (131300-131500Z) ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BUT DO SUGGEST THE BROAD CENTER MAY BE TRACKING OVER WATER. CHOSHI (35.7N 140.8E), HOWEVER, IS REPORTING MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1002.6 MB. THESE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND THE 1200Z RJTD RADAR FIX. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL JAPAN WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUSTAINING INTENSE CONVECTION OVER WATER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS AT HIGH (25 KNOTS) LEVELS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 09W HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STR. TD 09W WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS IT COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 40-50 KNOT VWS AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 20NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12 DIVERGING TO A 43NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE DETRIMENTAL INTERACTION WITH LAND AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AFTER TAU 06. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-14 06:24 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 011 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 37.2N 142.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 142.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 41.0N 147.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 45.7N 151.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 143.9E. 13AUG22. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED AND EXITED BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN THE EIR AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/25KTS AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND BEGAN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 12, IT WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET.// NNNN2022-8-14 06:26 回复 -
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