2208号热带风暴“米雷”(09W.Meari) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-9 02:00 1127

最新回复 (37)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 31

    WTPN31 PGTW 130900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 009
       DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       130600Z --- NEAR 34.7N 138.3E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       REPEAT POSIT: 34.7N 138.3E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       131800Z --- 37.4N 141.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       140600Z --- 40.8N 146.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    130900Z POSITION NEAR 35.4N 139.2E.
    13AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
    NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 130900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI)
    WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 34.7N 138.3E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
    EXPOSED, DETERIORATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED
    DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC.
    ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING LOW-LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH.
    THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI
    AND JMA RADAR FIXES. NEAR 130550Z, THE CENTER PASSED DIRECTLY OVER
    OMAEZAKI (34.6N 138.2E) WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 22 KNOTS
    AND MINIMUM SLP NEAR 998.3 MB. AS THE SYSTEM PASSED OVER SURUGA
    BAY, THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE BECAME MORE ILL-DEFINED AND
    FRAGMENTED. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS THUS FAR OBSERVED ALONG THE
    COAST WERE AT IROZAKI ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE IZU PENINSULA,
    WHICH PEAKED AT ABOUT 32 KNOTS AT 130700Z. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WIND
    OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONAL
    DATA AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
    TROUGH OVER CENTRAL JAPAN WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUSTAINING
    CONVECTION OVER WATER. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
    INCREASED TO HIGH (25 KNOTS) LEVELS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    RADII).
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 130419Z
       CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 130540Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN
    EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
    NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE
    NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE STR. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
    OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVERLAND, HOWEVER, TD
    09W WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 35-40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS IT
    COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND GAINS
    FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 10NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NEAR TOKYO
    DIVERGING TO A 50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING HIGH
    CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE DETRIMENTAL INTERACTION
    WITH LAND AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE REINTENSIFICATION
    PHASE AFTER TAU 06.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-13 05:59 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 32
    WP, 09, 2022081312,   , BEST,   0, 357N, 1401E,  30,  997, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  110,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, S, 
    2022-8-14 06:23 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 33

    WTPN31 PGTW 131500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 010   
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       131200Z --- NEAR 35.7N 140.1E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       REPEAT POSIT: 35.7N 140.1E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       140000Z --- 38.9N 144.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 26 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       141200Z --- 42.9N 149.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    131500Z POSITION NEAR 36.5N 141.2E.
    13AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    31 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
    18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z,
    140300Z AND 140900Z.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 131500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (MEARI) WARNING
    NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 35.7N 140.1E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 31 NM NORTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: N/A
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
    NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY AND A 131151Z AMSU-B
    89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    WITH A LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION EXTENDING SOUTH OF TOKYO. RECENT
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (131300-131500Z) ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
    KNOTS BUT DO SUGGEST THE BROAD CENTER MAY BE TRACKING OVER WATER.
    CHOSHI (35.7N 140.8E), HOWEVER, IS REPORTING MORE SIGNIFICANT
    SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1002.6 MB.
    THESE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE
    SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR
    IMAGERY AND THE 1200Z RJTD RADAR FIX. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
    MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BROAD
    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL JAPAN WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
    SUSTAINING INTENSE CONVECTION OVER WATER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
    REMAINS AT HIGH (25 KNOTS) LEVELS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    RADII).
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 09W HAS COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
    (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
    MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
    STR. TD 09W WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 12 THEN
    40 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS IT COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE STRONG
    MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 40-50 KNOT VWS AND GAINS FRONTAL
    CHARACTERISTICS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 20NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12
    DIVERGING TO A 43NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING HIGH
    CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE DETRIMENTAL INTERACTION
    WITH LAND AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE REINTENSIFICATION
    PHASE AFTER TAU 06.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-14 06:24 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 34
    WP, 09, 2022081318,   , BEST,   0, 372N, 1426E,  35,  993, TS,  34, NEQ,   45,  115,   85,    0, 1006,  135,  85,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, S, 
    2022-8-14 06:25 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 35

    WTPN31 PGTW 132100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 011//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MEARI) WARNING NR 011
       UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       131800Z --- NEAR 37.2N 142.6E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 37.2N 142.6E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       140600Z --- 41.0N 147.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 28 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       141800Z --- 45.7N 151.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    132100Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 143.9E.
    13AUG22. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 203
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
    ACCELERATED AND EXITED BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INITIAL
    POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN THE EIR AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/25KTS AND REFLECTS THE
    IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED THE
    BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND BEGAN EXTRA-
    TROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 12, IT WILL TRANSFORM INTO A GALE FORCE
    COLD-CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
    TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
    FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET.//
    NNNN
    2022-8-14 06:26 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 36
    WP, 09, 2022081400,   , BEST,   0, 392N, 1448E,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,   75,  110,   75,    0, 1006,   95,  85,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, S, 
    2022-8-14 12:11 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 37
    WP, 09, 2022081406,   , BEST,   0, 409N, 1470E,  40,  991, TS,  34, NEQ,  105,  105,   90,    0, 1006,   95,  85,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, M, 
    2022-8-14 06:14 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 38
    WP, 09, 2022081412,   , BEST,   0, 436N, 1492E,  40,  990, EX,  34, NEQ,   80,  140,   80,    0, 1006,   95,  85,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MEARI, M, 
    2022-8-15 06:04 回复
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