东太平洋热带风暴“伊薇特”(10E.Ivette) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-11 08:00 1056

最新回复 (57)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 11
    EP, 90, 2022081200,   , BEST,   0, 141N, 1064W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-12 11:52 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 12

    1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
    Recent satellite images indicate that the circulation associated 
    with a low pressure system located about 400 miles south-southwest 
    of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today. 
    Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
    development, and only a small increase in the organization of the 
    associated shower and thunderstorm activity would lead to the 
    formation of a tropical depression, likely tonight or on Friday. 
    The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well 
    offshore the coast of Mexico, and further development appears 
    unlikely by Sunday when the system is expected to encounter less 
    favorable environmental conditions.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
    2022-8-12 11:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 13
    EP, 90, 2022081206,   , BEST,   0, 145N, 1072W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-12 06:18 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 14

    WTPN21 PHNC 120730
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED//
    REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721ZAUG2022//
    AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 106.8W TO 17.3N 112.4W
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 14.5N 107.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N
    107.2W, APPROXIMATELY 524 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO.
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120107Z SSMIS
    91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
    WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    DISTURBANCE REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND WARM (29-30C)
    SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90E TRACKING
    WEST-NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING TO AT LEAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH
    BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SHEAR BY TAU 72.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS.
    MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
    POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    130730Z.//
    NNNN
    2022-8-12 06:20 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 15
    EP, 90, 2022081212,   , BEST,   0, 152N, 1073W,  25, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  70,  35,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-13 06:08 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 16

    1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
    Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in association with an area 
    of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, 
    Mexico.  Although the system has lost organization, it still will 
    likely become a short-lived tropical cyclone during the next day or 
    two before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development on 
    Sunday.  The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 
    mph well offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
    2022-8-13 06:08 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 17
    EP, 90, 2022081218,   , BEST,   0, 159N, 1077W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-13 06:09 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 18
    EP, 90, 2022081300,   , BEST,   0, 168N, 1086W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-13 11:44 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 19
    EP, 90, 2022081306,   , BEST,   0, 174N, 1097W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-13 06:10 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 20

    WTPN21 PHNC 130730
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (INVEST 90E)//
    REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120721ZAUG22//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 109.5W TO 19.0N 113.8W
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 17.4N 109.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 14.5N 107.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.7W, APPROXIMATELY 106
    NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POORLY DEFINED
    CONVECTION. A 130503Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS DEPICTS 15-20KT WINDS IN
    THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
    MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY
    MARGINAL (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90E WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
    WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
    THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 120730).
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    140730Z.//
    NNNN
    
    2022-8-13 06:12 回复
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