最新回复 (57)
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1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Recent satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with a low pressure system located about 400 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become better defined today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and only a small increase in the organization of the associated shower and thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical depression, likely tonight or on Friday. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore the coast of Mexico, and further development appears unlikely by Sunday when the system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2022-8-12 11:53 回复 -
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WTPN21 PHNC 120730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721ZAUG2022// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3N 106.8W TO 17.3N 112.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W, APPROXIMATELY 524 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120107Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90E TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING TO AT LEAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SHEAR BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130730Z.// NNNN
2022-8-12 06:20 回复 -
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1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although the system has lost organization, it still will likely become a short-lived tropical cyclone during the next day or two before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development on Sunday. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2022-8-13 06:08 回复 -
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WTPN21 PHNC 130730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (INVEST 90E)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120721ZAUG22// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 109.5W TO 19.0N 113.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 109.7W, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POORLY DEFINED CONVECTION. A 130503Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS DEPICTS 15-20KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY MARGINAL (25-26C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90E WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 120730). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140730Z.// NNNN
2022-8-13 06:12 回复