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WTPN31 PHNC 132200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130700ZAUG2022//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 111.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 111.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.3N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.2N 114.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.9N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 132200Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 111.8W. 13AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 130730Z).// NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 132040 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the previous few days has become better defined within the past 24 hours. Although convection is limited to the western portion of the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather short-lived tropical cyclone. The system is currently within an area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are forecast to increase within the next 24 hours. Although the forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24 hours. After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase and limit any further intensification. The official forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two, which should cause the depression to turn westward. As the vortex weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed and drift west-southwestward. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown2022-8-14 06:28 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 140400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 111.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 111.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.4N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.5N 114.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.4N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.2N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.9N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 140400Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 112.3W. 14AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 140235 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 The depression has maintained a sheared appearance in satellite imagery this evening. The low-level center is exposed to the east of its deep convective overcast, which has a sharp eastern edge as moderate east-northeasterly shear continues to impinge on its circulation. The distance between the center and the cold overcast has slightly increased from earlier today, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with a blend of the various objective and subjective satellite estimates, which range from 25 to 35 kt. Ten-E is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone, as the moderate deep-layer shear currently plaguing the system is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days. So although SSTs remain above 26 deg C along its forecast track, the shear will continue to disrupt the system's vertical organization and import drier mid-level air from the east into its circulation. The official NHC forecast shows little change in strength during the next 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening as the system is forecast to lose deep organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 36 h. The remnant low could meander for a day or so before it succumbs to increased shear and drier air and eventually opens into a trough. The depression is still moving west-northwestward (285/7 kt) around a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The vertically shallow system should gradually turn westward to west-southwestward over the next couple of days as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 18.2N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z 17.9N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart2022-8-14 12:13 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 141000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 18.3N 112.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 112.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 113.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.5N 114.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.4N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.2N 115.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.0N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 141000Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 112.7W. 14AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 140844 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 The depression is struggling against strong easterly shear, and the exposed low-level circulation center is now about 70 n mi from the edge of its associated deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The shear impacting the cyclone is forecast to increase even more over the next day or so. The combination of this shear and dry mid-level air entraining into the depression's circulation is expected to disrupt the development of significant deep convection near its center. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest that perhaps a short-lived diurnal cycle of convection could develop near the center of the depression later this morning. Thereafter, those models suggest the system will degenerate into a remnant low, and the NHC forecast indicates that the depression should become a remnant low as soon as tonight. With an anticipated lack of appreciable deep convection near the cyclone's center, no strengthening is forecast. The system is expected to slowly weaken early this week and dissipate by midweek. The depression's low-level circulation has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at 295/5 kt to the southwest of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue through today. As the cyclone loses its convection, a turn westward then west-southwestward is expected as the system becomes steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 18.4N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 18.2N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto2022-8-14 06:16 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 141600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 112.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 112.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.5N 113.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.3N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 18.1N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.0N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 141600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 113.1W. 14AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 893 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 141438 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 There has been little change in the structure of the tropical depression since the previous advisory. The center remains exposed to the northeast of the associated deep convection due to the presence of moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear. Since there has been no change in the system's organization, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Some of the objective and subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS suggest the system could be slightly stronger, but given the lack of overall organization it is best to stay on the conservative side until scatterometer data is potentially available later today. The vertical wind shear affecting the system is forecast to increase within the next 24 hours, and that is likely to prevent strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest bursts of deep convection are likely to continue over the western portion of the circulation through tonight. After that time, the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and gradual weakening should occur through midweek. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to cause the cyclone to turn westward later today. As the low weakens it is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.3N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown2022-8-15 06:07 回复 -