东太平洋热带风暴“伊薇特”(10E.Ivette) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-11 08:00 1056

最新回复 (57)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 31

    WTPN31 PHNC 142200
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TTROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 005
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       141800Z --- NEAR 18.0N 113.2W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 113.2W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       150600Z --- 18.0N 113.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       151800Z --- 17.9N 114.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       160600Z --- 17.7N 114.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       161800Z --- 17.6N 115.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       170600Z --- 17.6N 116.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       171800Z --- 17.6N 117.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    142200Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 113.4W.
    14AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 907
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 142040
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    300 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
     
    Deep convection has persisted over the southwestern portion of the 
    depression's circulation today, however the center remains exposed 
    due to moderate to strong shear.  The area of convection has less 
    coverage than it did earlier today and the subjective and objective 
    T-numbers from SAB and UW/CIMSS have lowered accordingly. A blend of 
    the various satellite intensity estimates still supports a 30 kt 
    initial intensity, but this could be generous. The ASCAT satellite 
    unfortunately missed the system so there is no scatterometer data 
    is help determine the system's intensity. 
    
    The system is not likely to strengthen as the shear that has been 
    plaguing the depression is forecast to increase tonight. By Monday, 
    gradual weakening is expected to begin as the system remains 
    affected by moderate to strong shear and even drier mid-level air 
    impinges on the cyclone.  Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS 
    and ECMWF models suggest the system will struggle to produce 
    organized deep convection by tomorrow and the forecast calls for the 
    depression to become a remnant low within 24 hours or so. 
    
    The depression has been meandering since the previous advisory, but 
    the longer-term motion appears to be just south of due west at 
    about 4 kt.  As the depression weakens, it will be steered by a 
    low-level ridge to the north, and a slow westward to 
    west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. 
    The updated NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous 
    track due to the more southward initial position, but the official 
    forecast remains near the latest TCVE consensus model. 
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  14/2100Z 18.0N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  15/0600Z 18.0N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  15/1800Z 17.9N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  16/1800Z 17.6N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  17/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  17/1800Z 17.6N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    2022-8-15 06:10 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 32
    EP, 10, 2022081500,   , BEST,   0, 179N, 1134W,  30, 1007, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  40,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-15 12:17 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 33

    WTPN31 PHNC 150400
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 006
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       150000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 113.4W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 113.4W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       151200Z --- 17.7N 113.9W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       160000Z --- 17.5N 114.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       161200Z --- 17.4N 115.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       170000Z --- 17.4N 115.7W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       171200Z --- 17.4N 116.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       180000Z --- 17.4N 117.6W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    150400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 113.6W.
    15AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
    AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 150244
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    900 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
     
    While there are several convective bursts forming in a scattered 
    fashion around the low-level circulation of the depression this 
    evening, this activity lacks much organization. 0000 UTC Dvorak 
    intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB were CI 1.5/2.5 respectively, and 
    an average of these estimates still supports maintaining the 
    intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.
     
    A prominent upper-level anticyclone to the north of Tropical 
    Depression Ten-E is expected to further increase the easterly 
    vertical wind shear over the system, with the ECMWF-SHIPS showing 
    the magnitude approaching 30 kt in the next 24 hours. This shear 
    should result in the depression ingesting dry and more stable air 
    from outside of its core, further limiting convective activity. 
    Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from 
    the global models continues to suggest the system will no longer be 
    able to produce organized convection by tomorrow night, marking its 
    transition to a post-tropical remnant low. This remnant low will 
    likely survive several more days before it dissipates.
     
    The depression has been drifting to the west-southwest, with the 
    latest motion estimated at 245/3 kt. Low-level steering is expected 
    to maintain a slow west-southwestward heading over the next day or 
    so with a gradual bend westward forecast thereafter. The latest NHC 
    track was again shifted a bit south of the previous one given a 
    southward shift in the track guidance envelope, but still lies near 
    the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids during the forecast period.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  15/0300Z 17.8N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  15/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
     24H  16/0000Z 17.5N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  16/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  17/0000Z 17.4N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  17/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  18/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Papin
    2022-8-15 12:19 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 34
    EP, 10, 2022081506,   , BEST,   0, 180N, 1134W,  25, 1007, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  40,  35,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-15 06:11 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 35

    WTPN31 PHNC 151000
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 007
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       150600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 113.4W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 113.4W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       151800Z --- 17.9N 113.9W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       160600Z --- 17.8N 114.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       161800Z --- 17.7N 115.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       170600Z --- 17.7N 116.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       171800Z --- 17.8N 117.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       180600Z --- 18.0N 118.2W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    151000Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 113.6W.
    15AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 150600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z
    AND 161000Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 150832
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    300 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
     
    Tropical Depression Ten-E is barely hanging on as a tropical
    cyclone.  Deep convection has been decreasing and is now confined to
    a disorganized patch on the system's southwest side.  An ASCAT-B
    pass from a few hours ago indicated that the maximum winds have
    decreased to 20-25 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged down to
    25 kt based on that data.  The depression is currently in an
    environment of about 20 kt of easterly shear, and since the shear
    isn't expected to let up, continued weakening is forecast.  The
    system is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate
    by the end of the week.
     
    The depression has barely moved during the past 12 hours, with the
    initial motion estimated to be a westward drift at 2 kt.  The weak
    steering pattern is expected to persist for a little longer, which
    should keep the system on a very slow westward or west-southwestward
    motion during the next day or so.  After that, the remnant low is
    forecast to move a touch faster to the west.  The NHC track forecast
    is a little to the north of the previous one and close to the
    various consensus aids.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  15/0900Z 18.0N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
     12H  15/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  16/0600Z 17.8N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  16/1800Z 17.7N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  17/0600Z 17.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  17/1800Z 17.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  18/0600Z 18.0N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
    2022-8-15 06:12 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 36
    EP, 10, 2022081512,   , BEST,   0, 178N, 1135W,  30, 1007, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  40,  35,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-16 06:20 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 37

    WTPN31 PHNC 151600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 008
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       151200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 113.5W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 113.5W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       160000Z --- 17.7N 113.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       161200Z --- 17.6N 114.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       170000Z --- 17.6N 115.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       171200Z --- 17.7N 116.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       180000Z --- 17.9N 117.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       181200Z --- 18.2N 118.3W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    151600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 113.6W.
    15AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 151200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z
    AND 161600Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 151440
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
     
    The depression is maintaining enough deep convection to keep its 
    tropical cyclone status for now, however the convection has had
    little, if any, organization for the past 12-18 hours. The initial
    intensity is held at 25 kt and is based on earlier scatterometer
    data and the most recent SAB Dvorak classification. Easterly shear
    of about 20 kt is forecast to continue to plague the system over the
    next few days, and gradual weakening is anticipated during that
    time. The system is expected to remain over warm water so continued
    bursts of convection are likely, but if the convection does not gain
    additional organization the system is likely to become a remnant low
    at just about anytime within the next 24 hours.
     
    The depression has been drifting southwestward over the past day or
    so.  A very slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected
    over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains within an area
    of weak steering flow.  A slightly faster westward to west-
    northwestward motion should occur around midweek when the system
    is a remnant low.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  15/1500Z 17.8N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
     12H  16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    2022-8-16 06:21 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 38
    EP, 10, 2022081518,   , BEST,   0, 177N, 1137W,  35, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,   80, 1011,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-16 06:21 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 39

    WTPN31 PHNC 152200
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 009
       UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       151800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 113.7W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 113.7W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       160600Z --- 17.6N 114.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       161800Z --- 17.6N 114.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       170600Z --- 17.8N 115.7W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       171800Z --- 18.0N 116.6W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       180600Z --- 18.2N 117.6W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       181800Z --- 18.5N 118.5W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    152200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 113.8W.
    15AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
    AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z,
    161600Z AND 162200Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 152044
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Storm Ivette Discussion Number   9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    300 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
     
    The burst of deep convection that developed around the time of the
    release of the previous advisory appears to have resulted in some
    unexpected intensification of the cyclone.  A 1650 UTC ASCAT-B
    overpass revealed a fairly sizable area of 30-35 kt winds over the
    western portion of the circulation. While some of those winds
    may have been rain inflated, there were enough vectors in that 
    range to assume the system has 30-35 kt winds.  Surface 
    observations from Clarion island, located outside of the deep 
    convection, measured a peak sustained wind of 23 kt and a gust to 
    33 kt, which matched the scatterometer data.  A more recent 
    ASCAT-C pass revealed slightly lower winds, but ADT, SATCON, and 
    the Dvorak data T-numbers (using a shear pattern) all supported a 
    35-kt intensity at around 18Z.  Therefore, the depression is 
    upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm on this advisory.  
    
    The burst of convection that caused the intensification is already 
    quickly being shunted westward away from the low-level center due 
    to 20-25 kt of easterly shear.  Since the system is forecast to 
    remain over warm water during the next couple of days, additional 
    bursts of convection are likely to develop and it is nearly 
    impossible to forecast if they will have enough organization or 
    persistence to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone.  Given 
    the shear, the forecast still calls for gradual weakening, but it 
    delays the system's transition to a post-tropical cyclone a bit. 
     
    The depression remains within an area of light steering currents and 
    the initial motion estimate is 265/2 kt.  The system is only 
    forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward during the next day 
    or so, before a more pronounced westward or west-northwestward 
    motion is expected to begin.  The updated NHC track forecast is in 
    best agreement with the TVCE consensus model, which is slightly 
    north of the previous official forecast. 
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  15/2100Z 17.7N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  16/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  16/1800Z 17.6N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  17/0600Z 17.8N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  17/1800Z 18.0N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  18/0600Z 18.2N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  18/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    2022-8-16 06:22 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 40
    EP, 10, 2022081600,   , BEST,   0, 177N, 1141W,  30, 1006, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  140,  60,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-16 12:15 回复
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