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WTPN31 PHNC 142200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TTROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 18.0N 113.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 113.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.0N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.9N 114.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.7N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.6N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.6N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.6N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 142200Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 113.4W. 14AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 907 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 142040 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Deep convection has persisted over the southwestern portion of the depression's circulation today, however the center remains exposed due to moderate to strong shear. The area of convection has less coverage than it did earlier today and the subjective and objective T-numbers from SAB and UW/CIMSS have lowered accordingly. A blend of the various satellite intensity estimates still supports a 30 kt initial intensity, but this could be generous. The ASCAT satellite unfortunately missed the system so there is no scatterometer data is help determine the system's intensity. The system is not likely to strengthen as the shear that has been plaguing the depression is forecast to increase tonight. By Monday, gradual weakening is expected to begin as the system remains affected by moderate to strong shear and even drier mid-level air impinges on the cyclone. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the system will struggle to produce organized deep convection by tomorrow and the forecast calls for the depression to become a remnant low within 24 hours or so. The depression has been meandering since the previous advisory, but the longer-term motion appears to be just south of due west at about 4 kt. As the depression weakens, it will be steered by a low-level ridge to the north, and a slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous track due to the more southward initial position, but the official forecast remains near the latest TCVE consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.0N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.9N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 17.6N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 17.6N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown2022-8-15 06:10 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 150400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 113.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 113.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.7N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.5N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.4N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.4N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.4N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.4N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 150400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 113.6W. 15AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 910 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 150244 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 While there are several convective bursts forming in a scattered fashion around the low-level circulation of the depression this evening, this activity lacks much organization. 0000 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB were CI 1.5/2.5 respectively, and an average of these estimates still supports maintaining the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. A prominent upper-level anticyclone to the north of Tropical Depression Ten-E is expected to further increase the easterly vertical wind shear over the system, with the ECMWF-SHIPS showing the magnitude approaching 30 kt in the next 24 hours. This shear should result in the depression ingesting dry and more stable air from outside of its core, further limiting convective activity. Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models continues to suggest the system will no longer be able to produce organized convection by tomorrow night, marking its transition to a post-tropical remnant low. This remnant low will likely survive several more days before it dissipates. The depression has been drifting to the west-southwest, with the latest motion estimated at 245/3 kt. Low-level steering is expected to maintain a slow west-southwestward heading over the next day or so with a gradual bend westward forecast thereafter. The latest NHC track was again shifted a bit south of the previous one given a southward shift in the track guidance envelope, but still lies near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids during the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.8N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin2022-8-15 12:19 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 151000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 113.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 113.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.9N 113.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.8N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.7N 115.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.7N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.8N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.0N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 151000Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 113.6W. 15AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 150832 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Tropical Depression Ten-E is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Deep convection has been decreasing and is now confined to a disorganized patch on the system's southwest side. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to 20-25 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged down to 25 kt based on that data. The depression is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of easterly shear, and since the shear isn't expected to let up, continued weakening is forecast. The system is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by the end of the week. The depression has barely moved during the past 12 hours, with the initial motion estimated to be a westward drift at 2 kt. The weak steering pattern is expected to persist for a little longer, which should keep the system on a very slow westward or west-southwestward motion during the next day or so. After that, the remnant low is forecast to move a touch faster to the west. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one and close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 17.8N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 17.7N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 17.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 18.0N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi2022-8-15 06:12 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 151600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 113.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 113.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.7N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.6N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.6N 115.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.7N 116.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.9N 117.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.2N 118.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 151600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 113.6W. 15AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 915 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 151440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The depression is maintaining enough deep convection to keep its tropical cyclone status for now, however the convection has had little, if any, organization for the past 12-18 hours. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt and is based on earlier scatterometer data and the most recent SAB Dvorak classification. Easterly shear of about 20 kt is forecast to continue to plague the system over the next few days, and gradual weakening is anticipated during that time. The system is expected to remain over warm water so continued bursts of convection are likely, but if the convection does not gain additional organization the system is likely to become a remnant low at just about anytime within the next 24 hours. The depression has been drifting southwestward over the past day or so. A very slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains within an area of weak steering flow. A slightly faster westward to west- northwestward motion should occur around midweek when the system is a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.8N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown2022-8-16 06:21 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 152200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 113.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 113.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.6N 114.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.6N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.8N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 18.0N 116.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.2N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 152200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 113.8W. 15AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 152044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The burst of deep convection that developed around the time of the release of the previous advisory appears to have resulted in some unexpected intensification of the cyclone. A 1650 UTC ASCAT-B overpass revealed a fairly sizable area of 30-35 kt winds over the western portion of the circulation. While some of those winds may have been rain inflated, there were enough vectors in that range to assume the system has 30-35 kt winds. Surface observations from Clarion island, located outside of the deep convection, measured a peak sustained wind of 23 kt and a gust to 33 kt, which matched the scatterometer data. A more recent ASCAT-C pass revealed slightly lower winds, but ADT, SATCON, and the Dvorak data T-numbers (using a shear pattern) all supported a 35-kt intensity at around 18Z. Therefore, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm on this advisory. The burst of convection that caused the intensification is already quickly being shunted westward away from the low-level center due to 20-25 kt of easterly shear. Since the system is forecast to remain over warm water during the next couple of days, additional bursts of convection are likely to develop and it is nearly impossible to forecast if they will have enough organization or persistence to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone. Given the shear, the forecast still calls for gradual weakening, but it delays the system's transition to a post-tropical cyclone a bit. The depression remains within an area of light steering currents and the initial motion estimate is 265/2 kt. The system is only forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward during the next day or so, before a more pronounced westward or west-northwestward motion is expected to begin. The updated NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the TVCE consensus model, which is slightly north of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.7N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 17.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 18.0N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 18.2N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown2022-8-16 06:22 回复 -