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WTPN31 PHNC 160400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 010 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 114.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 114.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.6N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.7N 115.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 18.0N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.3N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.5N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.6N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 160400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 114.3W. 16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 914 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 160240 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The satellite presentation of Ivette this evening has degraded, with the prior burst of deep convection shearing away to the west and dissipating, though a smaller convective cell has begun to redevelop on the southwest side of the circulation. The definition of the center itself on both conventional satellite and microwave imagery appears more diffuse than before, suggesting that the earlier convective burst did not help to tighten up the circulation. While earlier scatterometer data indicated tropical-storm-force winds existed in the convective northwest quadrant of Ivette, more recent surface wind observations from Clarion island, also in this quadrant, are lower than earlier, sustained at only 21 kt with gusts up to 28 kt. These observations, in combination with the degradation in the satellite structure this evening, support lowering the intensity back to 30 kt for this advisory. The ongoing moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear is not expected to subside for the next several days. However, as previously mentioned, Ivette is expected to remain over sufficently warm water that may allow occasional convective bursts over this period, and it is difficult to determine when this activity will become insufficient to maintain Ivette's status as a tropical cyclone. It is still presumed that the ongoing shear will be too hostile to allow these convective bursts to remain organized, and like the previous advisory, gradual weakening is still forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Ivette becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 hours. One alternative scenario is that the system may be able to persist as a weak tropical cyclone a bit longer than forecasted if convection redevelops like that seen earlier today. There has been a slight acceleration in Ivette's westward motion this evening, now estimated at 260/3 kt. A general slow westward motion is forecast over the next several days following the weak low-level steering, in addition to occasional convective bursts on the west side of the circulation that may continue to tug it in that direction. The latest NHC forecast track remains close to the consensus aids and is just a touch north of the previous forecast track after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.6N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.6N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.7N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 18.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 18.6N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin2022-8-16 12:17 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 161000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 114.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 114.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.3N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.6N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.9N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.1N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.2N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.0N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 161000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 114.5W. 16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 160838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A burst of deep convection that developed in the western part of Ivette's circulation last evening has since been sheared away, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. Despite the loss of convection, a blend of TAFB's Dvorak CI number (2.0) with UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates supports maintaining 30 kt for this advisory. It's possible that some convection could redevelop since Ivette remains over warm waters of about 28 degrees Celsius. However, strong deep-layer easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere are likely to cause any new convection to be short lived and on the less-than-organized side of the spectrum. Therefore, barring any surprises, Ivette is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and gradually spin down during the next few days. Global models are in generally good agreement that the remnant low should open up into a trough in about 4 days. With the development and dissipation of recent convection, Ivette's movement has been erratic, and it's actually been nearly stationary for the past few hours. Since yesterday afternoon, however, the center has generally moved west-southwestward (245 degrees) at about 2 kt. The steering flow around the depression is weak at the moment, and there is greater-than-normal spread in the track guidance. In general, though, the remnant low is expected to move slowly westward to west-northwestward at 5 kt or less until dissipation. The new NHC track has been shifted southward from the previous forecast, mainly to account for Ivette's recent motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0600Z 17.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 18.2N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg2022-8-16 06:13 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 161600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 114.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 114.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.3N 115.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.7N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.0N 117.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.2N 118.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 18.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 17.8N 119.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 161600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 114.6W. 16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 941 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 161437 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the cyclone. If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon. The initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from TAFB. Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days. Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today. The remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days. Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours. The global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown2022-8-17 05:30 回复 -
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WTPN31 PHNC 162200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 114.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 114.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.5N 115.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.9N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.1N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.1N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 17.9N 119.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 162200Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 115.2W. 16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 938 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 9 FEET. // NNNNWTPZ45 KNHC 162044 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Although there has been sporadic and disorganized convection mainly to the southwest of the center of Ivette today, this system lacks sufficient organized, deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Some additional sporadic bursts of convection may occur over the next day or two while the remnant low is over marginally warm waters. However, persistent strong easterly vertical wind shear associated with a large upper-level anticyclone to the north of the system should prevent any significant convective reorganization for the next several days. Ivette has continued its motion westward at 5 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should turn west-northwestward in the low-level flow. A building low-level ridge to the northwest of Ivette should eventually steer the remnants westward and then west-southwestward until it opens up into a trough in a few days. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch2022-8-17 05:33 回复 -
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1. Western East Pacific: Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association with an area of low pressure that is the remnants of Ivette. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves generally westward, well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2022-8-21 12:11 回复
