东太平洋热带风暴“伊薇特”(10E.Ivette) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-11 08:00 1056

最新回复 (57)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 41

    WTPN31 PHNC 160400
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 010
       DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10E
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       160000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 114.1W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 114.1W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       161200Z --- 17.6N 114.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       170000Z --- 17.7N 115.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       171200Z --- 18.0N 116.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       180000Z --- 18.3N 117.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       181200Z --- 18.5N 118.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       190000Z --- 18.6N 119.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    160400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 114.3W.
    16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    914 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
    IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161000Z, 161600Z, 162200Z AND 170400Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 160240
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number  10
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    900 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
     
    The satellite presentation of Ivette this evening has degraded, with 
    the prior burst of deep convection shearing away to the west and 
    dissipating, though a smaller convective cell has begun to redevelop 
    on the southwest side of the circulation. The definition of the 
    center itself on both conventional satellite and microwave imagery 
    appears more diffuse than before, suggesting that the earlier 
    convective burst did not help to tighten up the circulation. While 
    earlier scatterometer data indicated tropical-storm-force winds 
    existed in the convective northwest quadrant of Ivette, more recent 
    surface wind observations from Clarion island, also in this 
    quadrant, are lower than earlier, sustained at only 21 kt with 
    gusts up to 28 kt. These observations, in combination with the 
    degradation in the satellite structure this evening, support 
    lowering the intensity back to 30 kt for this advisory.
     
    The ongoing moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear is not
    expected to subside for the next several days. However, as
    previously mentioned, Ivette is expected to remain over sufficently
    warm water that may allow occasional convective bursts over this
    period, and it is difficult to determine when this activity will
    become insufficient to maintain Ivette's status as a tropical
    cyclone. It is still presumed that the ongoing shear will be too
    hostile to allow these convective bursts to remain organized, and
    like the previous advisory, gradual weakening is still forecast. The
    latest NHC intensity forecast still shows Ivette becoming a
    post-tropical remnant low in about 24 hours. One alternative
    scenario is that the system may be able to persist as a weak
    tropical cyclone a bit longer than forecasted if convection
    redevelops like that seen earlier today.
     
    There has been a slight acceleration in Ivette's westward motion
    this evening, now estimated at 260/3 kt. A general slow westward
    motion is forecast over the next several days following the weak
    low-level steering, in addition to occasional convective bursts on
    the west side of the circulation that may continue to tug it in
    that direction. The latest NHC forecast track remains close to the
    consensus aids and is just a touch north of the previous forecast
    track after 24 hours.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  16/0300Z 17.6N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  16/1200Z 17.6N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
     24H  17/0000Z 17.7N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  17/1200Z 18.0N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  18/0000Z 18.3N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  18/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  19/0000Z 18.6N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Papin
    2022-8-16 12:17 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 42
    EP, 10, 2022081606,   , BEST,   0, 172N, 1143W,  30, 1006, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  130,  60,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-16 06:12 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 43


    WTPN31 PHNC 161000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 114.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 114.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.3N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.6N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.9N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.1N 117.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 60 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.2N 118.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.0N 119.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 161000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 114.5W. 16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 942 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161600Z, 162200Z, 170400Z AND 171000Z. // NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 160838
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number  11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    300 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022
     
    A burst of deep convection that developed in the western part of
    Ivette's circulation last evening has since been sheared away,
    leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  Despite the loss of
    convection, a blend of TAFB's Dvorak CI number (2.0) with UW-CIMSS
    ADT and SATCON estimates supports maintaining 30 kt for this
    advisory.  It's possible that some convection could redevelop since
    Ivette remains over warm waters of about 28 degrees Celsius.
    However, strong deep-layer easterly shear of about 25 kt and a
    relatively dry atmosphere are likely to cause any new convection to
    be short lived and on the less-than-organized side of the spectrum.
    Therefore, barring any surprises, Ivette is expected to degenerate
    into a remnant low later today, and gradually spin down during the
    next few days.  Global models are in generally good agreement that
    the remnant low should open up into a trough in about 4 days.
     
    With the development and dissipation of recent convection, Ivette's
    movement has been erratic, and it's actually been nearly stationary 
    for the past few hours.  Since yesterday afternoon, however, the 
    center has generally moved west-southwestward (245 degrees) at about 
    2 kt.  The steering flow around the depression is weak at the 
    moment, and there is greater-than-normal spread in the track 
    guidance.  In general, though, the remnant low is expected to move 
    slowly westward to west-northwestward at 5 kt or less until 
    dissipation.  The new NHC track has been shifted southward from the 
    previous forecast, mainly to account for Ivette's recent motion.
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  16/0900Z 17.2N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  16/1800Z 17.3N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  17/0600Z 17.6N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  17/1800Z 17.9N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  18/0600Z 18.1N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  18/1800Z 18.2N 118.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  19/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Berg
    2022-8-16 06:13 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 44
    EP, 10, 2022081612,   , BEST,   0, 172N, 1144W,  30, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  180,  60,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-17 05:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 45

    WTPN31 PHNC 161600
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 012
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       161200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 114.4W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 114.4W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       170000Z --- 17.3N 115.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       171200Z --- 17.7N 116.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       180000Z --- 18.0N 117.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       181200Z --- 18.2N 118.1W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       190000Z --- 18.0N 119.0W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       191200Z --- 17.8N 119.7W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    161600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 114.6W.
    16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    941 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 162200Z, 170400Z, 171000Z AND 171600Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 161437
    TCDEP5
     
    Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number  12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022
     
    Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around 
    the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked 
    organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the 
    cyclone.  If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette 
    will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon.  The 
    initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which 
    is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from 
    TAFB. 
    
    Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere 
    are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days.  
    Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become 
    organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today.  The 
    remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days. 
    
    Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has 
    only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours.  The 
    global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to 
    move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as 
    the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the 
    system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of 
    the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP 
    corrected consensus aid. 
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
     12H  17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Brown
    2022-8-17 05:30 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 46
    EP, 10, 2022081618,   , BEST,   0, 172N, 1149W,  25, 1007, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  60,  35,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-17 05:32 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 47

    WTPN31 PHNC 162200
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 013//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE) WARNING NR 013
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       161800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 114.9W
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROPICAL
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 114.9W
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       170600Z --- 17.5N 115.8W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       171800Z --- 17.9N 116.7W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       180600Z --- 18.1N 117.7W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       181800Z --- 18.1N 118.6W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
       VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       60 HRS, VALID AT:
       190600Z --- 17.9N 119.4W
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
        ---
    REMARKS:
    162200Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 115.2W.
    16AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (IVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    938 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
    THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
    JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
    MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 161800Z IS 9 FEET.
    //
    NNNN
    WTPZ45 KNHC 162044
    TCDEP5
     
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Discussion Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
    200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022
     
    Although there has been sporadic and disorganized convection mainly 
    to the southwest of the center of Ivette today, this system lacks 
    sufficient organized, deep convection to qualify as a tropical 
    cyclone.  Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory.  The initial 
    intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on the satellite intensity 
    estimate from TAFB.  Some additional sporadic bursts of convection 
    may occur over the next day or two while the remnant low is over 
    marginally warm waters.  However, persistent strong easterly 
    vertical wind shear associated with a large upper-level anticyclone 
    to the north of the system should prevent any significant convective 
    reorganization for the next several days.
    
    Ivette has continued its motion westward at 5 kt.  Over the next day 
    or so, the system should turn west-northwestward in the low-level 
    flow.  A building low-level ridge to the northwest of Ivette should 
    eventually steer the remnants westward and then west-southwestward 
    until it opens up into a trough in a few days.
    
    For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
    Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
    header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
     
     
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
     
    INIT  16/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
     12H  17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     24H  17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     36H  18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     48H  18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     60H  19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
     72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
     
    $$
    Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
    2022-8-17 05:33 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 48
    复编资讯
    EP, 10, 2022082012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1221W, 25, 1008, LO,
    2022-8-21 12:10 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 49
    EP, 10, 2022081700,   , BEST,   0, 173N, 1154W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  175,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081706,   , BEST,   0, 175N, 1157W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081712,   , BEST,   0, 177N, 1162W,  25, 1007, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  150,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081718,   , BEST,   0, 178N, 1167W,  20, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081800,   , BEST,   0, 181N, 1171W,  20, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  140,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081806,   , BEST,   0, 184N, 1178W,  20, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  140,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081812,   , BEST,   0, 185N, 1182W,  20, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081818,   , BEST,   0, 183N, 1188W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081900,   , BEST,   0, 182N, 1194W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081906,   , BEST,   0, 180N, 1197W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081912,   , BEST,   0, 178N, 1200W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022081918,   , BEST,   0, 175N, 1205W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022082000,   , BEST,   0, 170N, 1210W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022082006,   , BEST,   0, 166N, 1215W,  20, 1009, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    EP, 10, 2022082012,   , BEST,   0, 164N, 1222W,  25, 1008, LO,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     IVETTE, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 015, 
    2022-8-21 12:11 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 50

    1. Western East Pacific:
    Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association 
    with an area of low pressure that is the remnants of Ivette. Some 
    slow development of this system is possible over the next several 
    days as it moves generally westward, well east-southeast of the 
    Hawaiian Islands. 
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
    2022-8-21 12:11 回复
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