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IO, 98, 2022081112, , BEST, 0, 222N, 695E, 20, 990, DB,
最后于 2022-8-15 05:40
被ygsj24编辑
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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.2N 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111316Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION OVER LAND WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CIRCULATION IS STILL PARTIALLY OVER LAND BUT IS SLOWLY MOVING OUT OVER THE GULF OF KUTCH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 98A IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98A WILL CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE ARABIAN SEA WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFERENT FORECAST TRACKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
2022-8-12 04:44 回复 -
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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 69.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 69.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 66.3E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. A 111706Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWED A FIELD OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTORS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A FULLY OBSCURE AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION IS DEEPENING. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM IS MOSTLY INTO THE ARABIAN SEA AND CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 98A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING 98A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOPING OVER THE ARABIAN SEA NEAR PAKISTAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 21 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
2022-8-12 04:52 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 65.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 65.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 22.1N 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.4N 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.0N 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 65.6E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z. // NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.7N 65.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 199 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 03A HAS EMERGED OFF THE GUJARAT PENINSULA AND MOVED WESTWARD UNDER A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, WHICH ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION. JTWC HAND ANALYSIS OF 120000Z UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) REVEALED A POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE LLCC, WHICH HAS INDUCED RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR, IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SUBSEQUENT AMVS REVEAL THIS POINT SOURCE IS MOVING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, LEAVING IT VULNERABLE TO INCREASING EASTERLY PRESSURE AND SHEAR, ALREADY STARTING TO INCREASE. A 120044Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION CURVED CYCLONICALLY IN TOWARDS THE CENTER, THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE PGTW FIX POSITION. A 120620Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS REVEALED 35-40 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY, WHICH IS NUDGED HIGHER THAN THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SSTS, MODERATE VWS (20-25 KTS) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUGHT IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA, A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR OVER FAR NORTHERN INDIA AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) JUST SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN INDIA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR SOUTHEAST AND NORTH OVER SOUTHERN PAKISTAN. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03A RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED TO A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER EMERGING OVER WATER. NOW THAT ITS MOVED INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA, IT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, TRAPPED BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SERIES OF DEEP-LAYER RIDGES TO THE WEST, NORTH AND SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE AND WEAKEN, AND THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, WITH THE RIDGE OF THE SAUDI PENINSULA ACTING AS A BLOCK TO MUCH FURTHER WESTWARD MOVEMENT. AS THE NER TO THE SOUTH MOVES DRIFTS NORTHWARD, IT WILL PUSH TC 03A NORTH AS WELL, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NOW OR LIKELY ALREADY COME AND GONE, AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ONLY A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY TAU 12. THEREAFTER, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE DISSIPATES AND MOVES AWAY, THE GENERALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) WILL MOVE IN ONCE MORE, AND SHEAR THE SYSTEM APART. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF DRY AND DUSTY AIR FROM THE DESERTS OF AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN, WHICH WILL SMOTHER ANY REMNANT CONVECTION, LEAVING AN EXPOSED AND STEADILY WEAKENING CIRCULATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER THAN TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, AT LEAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TAU 36. SPREAD IS ROUGHLY 140NM BETWEEN THE BULK OF THE MODELS, WITH GFS ON THE FAR WEST AND ECMWF ON THE FAR EAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. NAVGEM MEANWHILE IS DISCOUNTED AS IT TRACKS THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER LAND EAST OF KARACHI BY TAU 36, WHICH IS HIGHLY UNREALISTIC. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND DECAY-SHIPS (GFS) INDICATING A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS AT TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ON THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 12 AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AT 30 KNOTS BAY TAU 36, IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-12 06:24 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 65.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 65.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.3N 65.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.7N 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.2N 64.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 65.5E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. // NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 65.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), UNDER CIRRUS BLOWOFF EMANATING FROM DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHEARED TO THE WEST. TC 03A HAS PEAKED, WITH THE EARLIER POINT SOURCE ALOFT WHICH HAD ALLOWED FOR A MESOSCALE REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR, HAVING DISSIPATED, REPLACED BY THE SEASONAL STRONG TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) ASSOCIATED FLOW PATTERN. A 121200Z F16 SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE LLCC, DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION, AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED IN LARGE PART ON THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE, ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME EVER MORE HOSTILE, WITH SHEAR DRAMATICALLY INCREASING TO ROUGHLY 30 KNOTS, MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET ANY DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE WARM SSTS, AND THE FIRST HINTS OF A NOSE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE EAST. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND IS DRIFTING RATHER AIMLESSLY TO THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN IN A COL REGION BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CHINA TO AFGHANISTAN AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN INDIA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 121215Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TRAPPED BETWEEN A SERIES OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGES DESCRIBED ABOVE, TC 03A WILL EXHIBIT ERRATIC MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. MEAN MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH RECEDES AND WEAKENS, AND THE NER PUSHES NORTH TO 10N, MOVING TC 03A NORTHWARD AS WELL. BUT SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM THIS FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG STEERING MECHANISM. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE PROTECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND IS EXPOSED TO THE FULL FORCE OF THE TEJ WINDS ALOFT, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF PAKISTAN. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM FEEDING STRONG VORTICITY INTO THE CIRCULATION, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO SPIN DOWN BELOW GALE FORCE, EXPECTED TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 36, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 24. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM FURTHEST TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF FURTHEST EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE VAGARIES ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK STEERING PATTERNS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL BUT THE COAMPS-TC INDICATING A NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES BELOW THE GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 AND LIES ALONG THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-13 06:13 回复