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WTIO31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 64.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 64.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.5N 64.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.7N 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 64.6E. 12AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 64.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY A RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 121730Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST, THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 121815Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 03A WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE COL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH VWS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN2022-8-13 06:15 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 63.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 63.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 22.2N 63.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 22.5N 64.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 63.7E. 13AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED AND HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHEARED FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 122238z GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 24KTS TO 42KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH (25+ KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET.// NNNN2022-8-13 11:49 回复 -
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