阿拉伯海北部低压ARB 02(03A) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-12 02:00 871

最新回复 (17)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 11
    IO, 03, 2022081218,   , BEST,   0, 223N,  647E,  35,  992, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   40,    0,   60,  994,  175,  40,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, S, 
    2022-8-13 06:13 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 12

    WTIO31 PGTW 122100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 003
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       121800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 64.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 64.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       130600Z --- 22.5N 64.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       131800Z --- 22.7N 64.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
        ---
    REMARKS:
    122100Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 64.6E.
    12AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
    NNNN
    WDIO31 PGTW 122100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR
    003//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 64.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY A RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD
    OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 121730Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE STRONG
    EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLY
    JET.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL OF
    THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST, THE STR TO THE
    NORTHEAST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 121815Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 03A WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE COL
    OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH VWS
    WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
    24, LIKELY SOONER.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY DUE TO THE WEAK
    STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
    2022-8-13 06:15 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 13
    IO, 03, 2022081300,   , BEST,   0, 219N,  637E,  35,  992, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   40,   50,   60,  994,  110,  50,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, S, 
    2022-8-13 11:46 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 14

    WTIO31 PGTW 130300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 004   
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       130000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 63.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 63.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       131200Z --- 22.2N 63.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       140000Z --- 22.5N 64.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
        ---
    REMARKS:
    130300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 63.7E.
    13AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM
    SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
    10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED
    AND HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SHEARED
    FURTHER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
    FEATURE IN THE 122238z GPM IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
    FROM AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 24KTS TO
    42KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY DUE TO
    HIGH (25+ KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO
    RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
    THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
    WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET.//
    NNNN
    2022-8-13 11:49 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 15
    IO, 03, 2022081306,   , BEST,   0, 215N,  636E,  30,  992, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  997,  110,  55,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, S, 
    2022-8-13 06:13 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 16
    IO, 03, 2022081312,   , BEST,   0, 216N,  648E,  30,  991, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  997,  110,  55,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE, S, 
    2022-8-14 06:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 17
    IO, 03, 2022081318,   , BEST,   0, 222N,  661E,  25,  995, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  997,  100,  45,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE,  , 
    2022-8-14 06:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 18
    IO, 03, 2022081400,   , BEST,   0, 233N,  666E,  20,  999, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1000,  100,  35,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,      THREE,  , 
    2022-8-14 12:14 回复
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