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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 910 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. A 181145Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE WITH A SWATH OF 25- 30KT CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE FLARING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. A 180631Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. INVEST 93W IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, FUELING STRONG CONVECTION, AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KT) VWS AND VERY WARM (29- 30C) SST VALUES OFFSET BY CONVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FORMING AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
2022-8-19 05:54 回复 -
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