2209号台风“马鞍”(10W.Ma-on) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-15 08:00 1006

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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 31

    WTPN31 PGTW 211500   
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210800ZAUG22//
    AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001   
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       211200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 126.3E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 126.3E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       220000Z --- 16.9N 124.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       221200Z --- 17.4N 124.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       230000Z --- 18.3N 122.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       231200Z --- 19.3N 121.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 21.7N 117.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 23.3N 113.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 24.9N 109.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 125.9E.
    21AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338
    NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
    10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
    2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPESEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210800).//
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 211500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 126.3E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION. A 211224Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THE TIGHT, WELL-DEFINED LLCC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION, AND A FAIRLY LARGE WIND FIELD WITH 25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER WIND SPEED DATA AND IS IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. WHILE TD 10W HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONVECTIVELY ORGANIZE, THE WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM HAVE STEADILY INCREASED AS THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO FALL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CURRENTLY, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY STRONG EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS AND HIGH OHC. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.  
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS.  
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NA
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W HAS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVES THE WIND FIELD HAS REACHED 25 TO 30 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH A BIT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST JOG IN THE NEAR-TERM AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN ONTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TO THE EAST, WITH THE CENTER EVENTUALLY ASSUMING A POSITION TO THE EAST OF TD 10W. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON AROUND TAU 36, THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG AROUND TAU 96. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH SHEAR AND THE LACK OF A CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE, TD 10W WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY MUCH IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 36. ONCE PAS LUZON THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY A BIT MORE RAPIDLY AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK POINT SOURCE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM, FINALLY ALLOWING FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE COAST. ONCE ASHORE IN SOUTHEAST CHINA, TD 10W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 120.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED USING GLOBAL MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODELS CONCUR IN THE OVERALL TRACK, WITH ONLY MODEST SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72, INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ALL THREE MODELS AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL SKIRT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON, WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE BUNCH. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE GFS REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG KONG, WHILE THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF TAKE THE SYSTEM ASHORE TO THE NORTH OF HONG KONG. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH WIDER SPREAD, BETWEEN NORTHERN HAINAN AND SOUTHERN TAIWAN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO EXTREMELY LIMITED, WITH ONLY COAMPS-TC AVAILABLE AND SHOWING A PEAK OF 75-80 KNOTS. BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS LOWER THE AGGRESSIVE COAMPS-TC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON A LACK OF RELIABLE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-22 06:37 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 32
    WP, 10, 2022082118,   , BEST,   0, 165N, 1257E,  30, 1000, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN,  , 
    2022-8-22 06:38 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 33

    WTPN31 PGTW 212100
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       211800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       220600Z --- 16.8N 124.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       221800Z --- 17.5N 123.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       230600Z --- 18.5N 122.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 19.5N 120.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 21.8N 117.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 23.3N 113.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       261800Z --- 25.0N 109.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 125.4E.
    21AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330
    NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
    AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
    221500Z AND 222100Z.
    //
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 212100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 125.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 211317Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS INDICATING A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH 25-KNOT WIND BARBS EXTENDING 100+ NM ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND 30-KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN 30NM OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNEW, AND CIMSS ADT.
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS.  
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 1840Z
      
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NA
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON STRAIT TOWARD HONG KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 84. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON, WITH SOME TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. THEREFORE, JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-22 06:39 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 34
    WP, 10, 2022082200,   , BEST,   0, 163N, 1246E,  30, 1000, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN,  , 
    2022-8-22 01:43 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 35

    WTPN31 PGTW 220300
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       220000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 124.6E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 124.6E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       221200Z --- 17.0N 123.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       230000Z --- 18.0N 122.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       231200Z --- 19.2N 120.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 20.0N 118.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 22.4N 113.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 23.7N 107.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       120 HRS, VALID AT:
       270000Z --- 24.6N 99.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 124.3E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
    NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
    11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z
    AND 230300Z.//
    WDPN31 PGTW 220300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
    (TEN) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 124.6E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLU EXPOSED  AS THE MAIN
    CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL
    POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    EXPOSED LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
    DVORAK INTENSIT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND CIMSS ADT.
    WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS.
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 220230Z
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NA
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
    FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
    THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
    THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
    THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON
    STRAIT TOWARD HONG
    KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
    STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO
    A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF
    HONG KONG. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
    THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
    MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS AR
    NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS
    THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL
    FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH ARE ALL IN OVERALL
    AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF
    LUZON, WITH ECMWF ON A SLOWER TRACK PATTERN. THEREFORE,
    JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE
    DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF
    INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
    TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION
    AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
    AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//=
    2022-8-22 01:49 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 36
    WP, 10, 2022082206,   , BEST,   0, 162N, 1237E,  40,  998, TS,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON,  , 
    2022-8-22 06:03 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 37

    WTPN31 PGTW 220900
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 004
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 004
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       220600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 123.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 123.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       221800Z --- 16.8N 122.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       230600Z --- 17.8N 121.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 18.9N 119.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 20.0N 117.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 22.2N 112.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 23.6N 106.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 123.4E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM
    EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 220300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
    (TEN) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 124.6E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLU EXPOSED  AS THE MAIN
    CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL
    POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    EXPOSED LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
    DVORAK INTENSIT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND CIMSS ADT.
    WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS.
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 220230Z
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: NA
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
    FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
    THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
    THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
    THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON
    STRAIT TOWARD HONG
    KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
    STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO
    A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF
    HONG KONG. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
    THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
    MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS AR
    NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS
    THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL
    FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH ARE ALL IN OVERALL
    AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF
    LUZON, WITH ECMWF ON A SLOWER TRACK PATTERN. THEREFORE,
    JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE
    DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF
    INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
    TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION
    AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
    AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//=
    2022-8-22 06:06 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 38
    WP, 10, 2022082212,   , BEST,   0, 162N, 1232E,  45,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,   75,   70,   65,   70, 1006,  245,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    2022-8-23 07:50 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 39

    WTPN31 PGTW 221500
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 005
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 005
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       221200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 123.2E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 123.2E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       230000Z --- 17.0N 122.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       231200Z --- 18.3N 120.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 19.3N 119.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 20.4N 116.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 22.2N 111.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 23.4N 104.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    221500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 122.9E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM
    NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 221500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)
    WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 16.2N 123.2E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 159 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    THAT THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) HAS NOW TUCKED UNDER AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION,
    WHICH HAS SUCCESSFULLY PUSHED BACK AGAINST THE PERSISTENT,
    BUT WEAKENING, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE HAS NOT
    BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, BUT THE MOST RECENT
    SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FROM 220805Z SHOWED A NAKED CIRCULATION
    TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AT THAT TIME, WHICH WAS PRIOR
    TO THE RECENT FLARE-UP. HOWEVER, AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
    WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIX
    POSITIONED, LEND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
    THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY FIXES BASED ON THE PGTW CURRENT
    INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND THE SAME FROM THE RAW ADT.
    THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY, DOWN TO A FIVE KNOT SOA,
    AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND
    WESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF LUZON HAS PUSHED BACK AGAINST
    THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON JTWC HAND
    ANALYSIS AND CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS, THE UPPER-LEVEL
    FLOW PATTERN, WHILE STILL PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST,
    HAS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER TOP OF TS 10W, RELAXING
    THE SHEAR AND ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE CORE OF THE
    SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
    WITH WARM (30-31C) SSTS, HIGH OHC, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND
    STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 221210Z
       CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 221342Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
    FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
    THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TS 10W HAS SLOWED
    SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE HAS
    WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND IT HAS RUN INTO SOME HEADWINDS FLOWING
    OFF THE COAST OF LUZON. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
    RESTRENGTHEN AND REORIENT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST
    TO SOUTHEAST AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN COMBINATION
    WITH THE BUFFER EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN FEATURES OF LUZON
    THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD, MAKE
    LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12, AND THEN TURN ONTO A MORE
    NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, REEMERGING OVER WATER OFF THE
    NORTHWEST COAST OF LUZON BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    TURN IN A GRACEFUL ARC TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA,
    MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG JUST PRIOR TO TAU
    72 AND THEN MOVING QUICKLY INLAND. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
    EXPERIENCING A BETTER ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY, THE SHORT
    TIME REMAINING OVER LAND MEANS IT HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW
    OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH THE CURRENT
    FORECAST CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL
    WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES LUZON DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES,
    BUT RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ULTIMATE INTENSITY
    WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY THE FACT THAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
    THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
    EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND WHILE ALL OTHER PARAMETERS
    ARE FAVORABLE, THE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE PEAK
    INTENSITY, CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 55 KNOTS. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
    HOWEVER THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
    INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST,
    PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE IN CHINA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
    WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TAU 96.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE
    REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE NAVGEM MARKING THE
    SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CHINESE
    COAST NORTH OF HAINAN, AND THE CTCX AND ECMWF MARKING THE
    NORTHERN EDGE TAKING THE TRACK OVER HONG KONG. ECENS AND GEFS
    ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONSTRAINED IN A SIMILAR ENVELOPE. THE JTWC
    FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR
    THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUING TECHNICAL ISSUES,
    AND HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    THE CTCX AND COTC MODELS REMAIN VERY AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING THE SYSTEM
    AT OVER 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BUT THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS
    WELL BELOW THESE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, DUE TO
    THE LACK OF RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 07:52 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 40
    WP, 10, 2022082218,   , BEST,   0, 166N, 1227E,  50,  995, TS,  34, NEQ,   65,   70,   70,   75, 1006,  255,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    WP, 10, 2022082218,   , BEST,   0, 166N, 1227E,  50,  995, TS,  50, NEQ,   10,    0,    0,   20, 1006,  255,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    2022-8-23 07:52 回复
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