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WTPN31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210800ZAUG22// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 16.9N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.4N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.3N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.3N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 21.7N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 23.3N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 24.9N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 125.9E. 21AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPESEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210800).// BT #0001 NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 126.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 338 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION. A 211224Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THE TIGHT, WELL-DEFINED LLCC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION, AND A FAIRLY LARGE WIND FIELD WITH 25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER WIND SPEED DATA AND IS IN LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. WHILE TD 10W HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONVECTIVELY ORGANIZE, THE WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM HAVE STEADILY INCREASED AS THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO FALL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CURRENTLY, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY STRONG EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS AND HIGH OHC. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NA 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W HAS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH A CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVES THE WIND FIELD HAS REACHED 25 TO 30 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WEST, WITH A BIT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST JOG IN THE NEAR-TERM AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN ONTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TO THE EAST, WITH THE CENTER EVENTUALLY ASSUMING A POSITION TO THE EAST OF TD 10W. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON AROUND TAU 36, THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG AROUND TAU 96. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH SHEAR AND THE LACK OF A CONVECTIVE CORE STRUCTURE, TD 10W WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY MUCH IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 36. ONCE PAS LUZON THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY A BIT MORE RAPIDLY AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK POINT SOURCE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM, FINALLY ALLOWING FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE COAST. ONCE ASHORE IN SOUTHEAST CHINA, TD 10W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED USING GLOBAL MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODELS CONCUR IN THE OVERALL TRACK, WITH ONLY MODEST SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72, INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ALL THREE MODELS AGREE THAT TD 10W WILL SKIRT THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON, WITH THE GFS BEING THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE BUNCH. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE GFS REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG KONG, WHILE THE NAVGEM AND ECMWF TAKE THE SYSTEM ASHORE TO THE NORTH OF HONG KONG. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MUCH WIDER SPREAD, BETWEEN NORTHERN HAINAN AND SOUTHERN TAIWAN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO EXTREMELY LIMITED, WITH ONLY COAMPS-TC AVAILABLE AND SHOWING A PEAK OF 75-80 KNOTS. BASED ON THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS LOWER THE AGGRESSIVE COAMPS-TC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON A LACK OF RELIABLE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-22 06:37 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 212100 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.8N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 17.5N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.5N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 19.5N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.8N 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 23.3N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 25.0N 109.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 125.4E. 21AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. // BT #0001 NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.5N 125.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT IS DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 211317Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS INDICATING A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH 25-KNOT WIND BARBS EXTENDING 100+ NM ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND 30-KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN 30NM OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNEW, AND CIMSS ADT. WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 1840Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NA 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON STRAIT TOWARD HONG KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 84. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON, WITH SOME TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL JUST NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. THEREFORE, JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-22 06:39 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 220300 SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 124.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 124.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.0N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 18.0N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.2N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.0N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.4N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.7N 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 24.6N 99.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 124.3E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//WDPN31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 124.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLU EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSIT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND CIMSS ADT. WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 220230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NA 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON STRAIT TOWARD HONG KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS AR NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH ARE ALL IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON, WITH ECMWF ON A SLOWER TRACK PATTERN. THEREFORE, JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//=2022-8-22 01:49 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 220900 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 123.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 123.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 16.8N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.8N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.9N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.0N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.2N 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.6N 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 123.4E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // BT #0001 NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 124.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLU EXPOSED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSIT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND CIMSS ADT. WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 220230Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NA 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON STRAIT TOWARD HONG KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS AR NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH ARE ALL IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF LUZON, WITH ECMWF ON A SLOWER TRACK PATTERN. THEREFORE, JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//=2022-8-22 06:06 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 221500 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 005 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 123.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 123.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 17.0N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.3N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.3N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.4N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.2N 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.4N 104.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 122.9E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // BT #0001 NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.2N 123.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 159 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS NOW TUCKED UNDER AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WHICH HAS SUCCESSFULLY PUSHED BACK AGAINST THE PERSISTENT, BUT WEAKENING, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, BUT THE MOST RECENT SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE FROM 220805Z SHOWED A NAKED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AT THAT TIME, WHICH WAS PRIOR TO THE RECENT FLARE-UP. HOWEVER, AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AGENCY FIX POSITIONED, LEND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY FIXES BASED ON THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND THE SAME FROM THE RAW ADT. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY, DOWN TO A FIVE KNOT SOA, AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND WESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF LUZON HAS PUSHED BACK AGAINST THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON JTWC HAND ANALYSIS AND CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, WHILE STILL PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST, HAS BECOME STRONGLY DIVERGENT OVER TOP OF TS 10W, RELAXING THE SHEAR AND ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (30-31C) SSTS, HIGH OHC, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 221210Z CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 221342Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TS 10W HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND IT HAS RUN INTO SOME HEADWINDS FLOWING OFF THE COAST OF LUZON. THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND REORIENT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE BUFFER EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN FEATURES OF LUZON THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD, MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12, AND THEN TURN ONTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, REEMERGING OVER WATER OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF LUZON BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN IN A GRACEFUL ARC TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA, MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 AND THEN MOVING QUICKLY INLAND. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A BETTER ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY, THE SHORT TIME REMAINING OVER LAND MEANS IT HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CROSSES LUZON DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES, BUT RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ULTIMATE INTENSITY WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY THE FACT THAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND WHILE ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE, THE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE PEAK INTENSITY, CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 55 KNOTS. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72, NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST, PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE IN CHINA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA NO LATER THAN TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE NAVGEM MARKING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST NORTH OF HAINAN, AND THE CTCX AND ECMWF MARKING THE NORTHERN EDGE TAKING THE TRACK OVER HONG KONG. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONSTRAINED IN A SIMILAR ENVELOPE. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUING TECHNICAL ISSUES, AND HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CTCX AND COTC MODELS REMAIN VERY AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING THE SYSTEM AT OVER 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BUT THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS WELL BELOW THESE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-23 07:52 回复 -