2209号台风“马鞍”(10W.Ma-on) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-15 08:00 1004

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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 41

    WTPN31 PGTW 222100
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       221800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 122.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 122.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       230600Z --- 17.7N 121.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 18.8N 119.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 19.8N 117.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 20.8N 115.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 22.6N 109.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       261800Z --- 23.4N 103.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 122.4E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
    NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W
    (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    WDPN31 PGTW 222100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 16.6N 122.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS
    NOW TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FEEDER BANDS ARE MOSTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE
    WEST TO SOUTH PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON FORMATIVE
    EYE FEATURES IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE
    EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
    THE AGENCY FIXES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
    FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST AND
    STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS.
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 221940Z
       CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 221719Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
    THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MA-ON WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BALER,
    QUEZON PROVINCE, PHILIPPINES BEFORE TAU 06, DRAG ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA VIA
    LAOAG AROUND TAU 18. AROUND TAU 60, TS 10W WILL MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF
    HONG KONG AND TRACK INLAND JUST NORTH OF THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
    FUEL MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (NOT SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST) PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
    AFTERWARD, LAND INTERCACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. AFTER EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
    SEA, THE WARMER SSTS WILL HELP FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL
    INTO CHINA. THE RUGGED SOUTHERN CHINA TERRAIN WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTME TO DISSIPATION
    BEFORE TAU 72.
    
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUING TECHNICAL ISSUES BUT ENOUGH
    TO RAISE THE TRACK CONFIDENCE TO MEDIUM. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOLID AND SINGULAR STEERING MECHANISM - THE DEEP LAYER STR TO THE
    NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
    CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE CTCX AND COTC INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING
    THE SYSTEM AT OVER 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BELOW THESE ESTIMATES AND MORE
    IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
    LOW.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 07:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 42
    WP, 10, 2022082300,   , BEST,   0, 170N, 1226E,  60,  986, TS,  34, NEQ,   85,   85,   50,   40, 1006,  210,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    WP, 10, 2022082300,   , BEST,   0, 170N, 1226E,  60,  986, TS,  50, NEQ,   45,   40,   25,   25, 1006,  210,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    2022-8-23 12:21 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 43

    WTPN31 PGTW 230300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 007
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       230000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 122.6E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 122.6E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       231200Z --- 18.3N 120.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 19.3N 118.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 20.4N 116.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 21.6N 113.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 22.8N 107.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       270000Z --- 23.2N 103.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    230300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 122.2E.
    23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM
    NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 230000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND
    240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 230300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR
    007//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 122.6E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 184 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)  SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
    SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED
    FURTHER OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. FEEDER BANDS FROM THE WESTERN TO
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING USING THE MSI LOOP AND
    EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH
    COASTS OF LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS,
    SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE
    IMPROVEMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE
    SEA WITH WARM SST AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE
    MODERATE VWS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MA-ON WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PALANAN,
    ISABELA, PHILIPPINES, DRAG ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH
    CHINA SEA VIA LAOAG JUST AFTER TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TS 10W
    WILL MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AND
    TRACK INLAND ALONG THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WILL
    WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, AFTER EXITING INTO THE SOUTH
    CHINA SEA, THE WARMER SSTS WILL HELP FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION
    TO A PEAK OF 70KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL INTO CHINA. THE RUGGED SOUTHERN
    CHINA TERRAIN WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION
    BEFORE TAU 96.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
    GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREADING TO 180NM BY TAU 96. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
    VARIABILITY OF LAND CROSSINGS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
    THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
    THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO AU
    48. AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND
    INTERACTION ON A DECAYING CYCLONE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 12:22 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 44
    WP, 10, 2022082306,   , BEST,   0, 177N, 1217E,  55,  989, TS,  34, NEQ,  105,   85,   80,   80, 1004,  210,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082306,   , BEST,   0, 177N, 1217E,  55,  989, TS,  50, NEQ,   50,   40,   35,   35, 1004,  210,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-23 05:51 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 45

    WTPN31 PGTW 230900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       230600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 121.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 121.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 18.9N 119.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 19.9N 117.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 21.0N 114.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 21.9N 111.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 22.9N 106.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       270600Z --- 23.4N 101.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 121.2E.
    23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
    NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
    240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS
    (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 230900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)
    WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 121.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
    PHILIPPINES
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
    LUZON AT APPROXIMATELY 230200Z WITH AN INCIPIENT EYE. SINCE MAKING
    LANDFALL, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD
    TOPS. A 230542Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
    REFLECTS THIS WEAKENING TREND BUT INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED
    A COMPACT, ORGANIZED CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE
    NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE AMSR2 IMAGE AS WELL AS
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM APARRI (18.4N 121.6E), SHOWING
    NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 27 KNOTS, AND TUGUEGARAO (17.6N
    121.7E), SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 23 KNOTS, SUPPORT THE
    INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE WINDS AT TUGUEGARAO
    HAVE NOW SHIFTED SOUTHERLY AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED TO THE
    NORTHWEST PAST THE SITE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
    WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY
    MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OBVIOUSLY, INTERACTION WITH
    THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT IN THE
    NEAR-TERM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT
    WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS
    EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, THE
    SYSTEM WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. AFTER
    TRAVERSING LUZON OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AND WEAKENING, TS
    10W SHOULD RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
    CONDITIONS, WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A
    PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING
    AFTER TAU 48 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL
    DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 96.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
    JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
    80-100 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48.
    THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HWRF
    AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS.
    THE 230000Z COAMPS INTENSITY ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 20 PERCENT
    PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THEREFORE, A HIGHER PEAK
    INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
    WHICH SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 05:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 46
    WP, 10, 2022082312,   , BEST,   0, 186N, 1204E,  50,  992, TS,  34, NEQ,  100,  100,   95,   75, 1004,  210,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082312,   , BEST,   0, 186N, 1204E,  50,  992, TS,  50, NEQ,   50,   50,   45,   35, 1004,  210,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-24 06:22 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 47

    WTPN31 PGTW 231500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009   
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       231200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 120.4E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 120.4E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 19.6N 118.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 20.6N 115.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 21.6N 113.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 22.3N 110.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 23.2N 105.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    231500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 119.8E.
    23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM
    EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z
    AND 241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 231500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)        
    WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 120.4E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 413 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    AFTER A QUICK TRANSIT ACROSS LUZON, TS 10W HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER
    JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF LUZON. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CORE STRUCTURE
    WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
    SEMICIRCLE INTO A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
    231029Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL
    BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE SPIRAL
    BANDING OVER WATER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAOAG (18.2N
    120.5E), THE SYSTEM CENTER PASSED JUST NORTH WITH WINDS SHIFTING
    GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WITH A
    MINIMUM SLP OF 993.3MB. SURFACE WINDS WERE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE
    BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL
    CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    AVERAGE OF THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS
    EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TS 10W SHOULD
    RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM
    (29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF
    70 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL
    ABOUT 110NM WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU
    72.     
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
    JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
    50-70 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU
    36. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH
    HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 60-65
    KNOTS. THE 230600Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF ON
    RAPID INTENSIFICATION BUT DOES INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
    MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
    VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) LEVELS BY
    TAU 36 WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.     
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-24 06:23 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 48
    WP, 10, 2022082318,   , BEST,   0, 191N, 1188E,  50,  991, TS,  34, NEQ,  180,  165,  105,   85, 1004,  195,  20,  65,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082318,   , BEST,   0, 191N, 1188E,  50,  991, TS,  50, NEQ,   60,   60,   50,   40, 1004,  195,  20,  65,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-24 06:24 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 49

    WTPN31 PGTW 232100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 010
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       231800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 118.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 118.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 20.0N 116.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 21.1N 113.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 22.1N 110.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 22.8N 107.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       261800Z --- 23.4N 102.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 118.2E.
    23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
    AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 232100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR
    010//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 118.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 322 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE WRAPPING INTO A PERSISTENT REGION OF
    CONVECTION JUST WEST OF LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, ALONG WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
    AS SEEN ON A WELL-TIMED 231753Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL
    CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE WESTWARD AND
    FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE FROM PGTW, RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES,
    AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT), AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS
    (SATCON).
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 231659Z
       CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 231740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE DIRECT
    INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THE
    STR WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM UNTIL AFTER MA-ON MAKES
    LANDFALL NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TS 10W IS
    EXPECTED TO GAIN HIGHER INTENSITY WHILE IT DRAWS MORE ENERGY FROM THE
    VERY WARM (29-30C) SST AND DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE SOUTH
    CHINA SEA. JUST AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS, MA-ON
    WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA, AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
    ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR AND INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THE LATEST JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY
    CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS
    ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW SPREAD FROM 35NM AT TAU 12 AND
    GRADUALLY SPREADS TO 110NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
    OVERALL JTWC TRACK. THERE REMAINS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
    JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH GFS AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK
    INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS. HOWEVER, OTHER INTENSITY AIDS ARE REMAINING
    LOWER AT THE 60-65 KNOTS AS THE PEAK, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-24 06:25 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 50
    WP, 10, 2022082400,   , BEST,   0, 191N, 1174E,  55,  989, TS,  34, NEQ,  125,   95,   95,   90, 1004,  195,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082400,   , BEST,   0, 191N, 1174E,  55,  989, TS,  50, NEQ,   70,   45,   45,   40, 1004,  195,  20,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-24 12:32 回复
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