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WTPN31 PGTW 222100 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 122.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 122.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 17.7N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.8N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.8N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.8N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.6N 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.4N 103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 122.4E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//WDPN31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.6N 122.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS NOW TOTALLY OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FEEDER BANDS ARE MOSTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTH PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON FORMATIVE EYE FEATURES IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE THE AGENCY FIXES AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND MORE CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS. WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 221940Z CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 221719Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MA-ON WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR BALER, QUEZON PROVINCE, PHILIPPINES BEFORE TAU 06, DRAG ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA VIA LAOAG AROUND TAU 18. AROUND TAU 60, TS 10W WILL MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AND TRACK INLAND JUST NORTH OF THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (NOT SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST) PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERCACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. AFTER EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE WARMER SSTS WILL HELP FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL INTO CHINA. THE RUGGED SOUTHERN CHINA TERRAIN WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTME TO DISSIPATION BEFORE TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO CONTINUING TECHNICAL ISSUES BUT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE TRACK CONFIDENCE TO MEDIUM. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE SOLID AND SINGULAR STEERING MECHANISM - THE DEEP LAYER STR TO THE NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE CTCX AND COTC INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN AGGRESSIVE, PEAKING THE SYSTEM AT OVER 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BELOW THESE ESTIMATES AND MORE IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-23 07:53 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 18.3N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.3N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.4N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.6N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.8N 107.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.2N 103.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 122.2E. 23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 184 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.0N 122.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 184 NM NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED FURTHER OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. FEEDER BANDS FROM THE WESTERN TO SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING USING THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF LUZON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY FIXES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MA-ON WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PALANAN, ISABELA, PHILIPPINES, DRAG ACROSS LUZON AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA VIA LAOAG JUST AFTER TAU 12. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TS 10W WILL MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AND TRACK INLAND ALONG THE VIETNAM-CHINA BORDER. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, AFTER EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE WARMER SSTS WILL HELP FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL INTO CHINA. THE RUGGED SOUTHERN CHINA TERRAIN WILL THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BEFORE TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREADING TO 180NM BY TAU 96. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF LAND CROSSINGS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO AU 48. AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND INTERACTION ON A DECAYING CYCLONE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-23 12:22 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 121.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 121.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 18.9N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 19.9N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.0N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.9N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.9N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.4N 101.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 121.2E. 23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 121.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON AT APPROXIMATELY 230200Z WITH AN INCIPIENT EYE. SINCE MAKING LANDFALL, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A 230542Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REFLECTS THIS WEAKENING TREND BUT INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A COMPACT, ORGANIZED CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE AMSR2 IMAGE AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM APARRI (18.4N 121.6E), SHOWING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 27 KNOTS, AND TUGUEGARAO (17.6N 121.7E), SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 23 KNOTS, SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE WINDS AT TUGUEGARAO HAVE NOW SHIFTED SOUTHERLY AS THE SYSTEM CENTER TRACKED TO THE NORTHWEST PAST THE SITE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OBVIOUSLY, INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 24-25 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. AFTER TRAVERSING LUZON OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AND WEAKENING, TS 10W SHOULD RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 80-100 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS. THE 230000Z COAMPS INTENSITY ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, THEREFORE, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WHICH SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH// NNNN2022-8-23 05:53 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 19.6N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.6N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.6N 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.3N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 23.2N 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 119.8E. 23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.6N 120.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 413 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AFTER A QUICK TRANSIT ACROSS LUZON, TS 10W HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST TIP OF LUZON. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CORE STRUCTURE WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE INTO A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231029Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE SPIRAL BANDING OVER WATER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAOAG (18.2N 120.5E), THE SYSTEM CENTER PASSED JUST NORTH WITH WINDS SHIFTING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 993.3MB. SURFACE WINDS WERE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TS 10W SHOULD RAPIDLY RE-CONSOLIDATE DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL ABOUT 110NM WEST OF HONG KONG. TS 10W WILL DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS, AND THE LATEST JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 50-70 NM SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 60-65 KNOTS. THE 230600Z COAMPS-TC INTENSITY ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION BUT DOES INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) LEVELS BY TAU 36 WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-24 06:23 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 20.0N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 21.1N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 22.1N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.8N 107.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 23.4N 102.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 118.2E. 23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.1N 118.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 322 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE WRAPPING INTO A PERSISTENT REGION OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, ALONG WITH A MICROWAVE EYE AS SEEN ON A WELL-TIMED 231753Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE WESTWARD AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE FROM PGTW, RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES, AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT), AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 231659Z CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 231740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM UNTIL AFTER MA-ON MAKES LANDFALL NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO GAIN HIGHER INTENSITY WHILE IT DRAWS MORE ENERGY FROM THE VERY WARM (29-30C) SST AND DEEP OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. JUST AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS, MA-ON WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA, AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR AND INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE LATEST JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW SPREAD FROM 35NM AT TAU 12 AND GRADUALLY SPREADS TO 110NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK. THERE REMAINS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH GFS AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS. HOWEVER, OTHER INTENSITY AIDS ARE REMAINING LOWER AT THE 60-65 KNOTS AS THE PEAK, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-24 06:25 回复 -