2209号台风“马鞍”(10W.Ma-on) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-15 08:00 1004

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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 51

    WTPN31 PGTW 240300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       240000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 117.4E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 117.4E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 20.3N 114.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 21.3N 112.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 22.1N 108.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 22.6N 105.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.8E.
    24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
    PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20
    FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
    REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 240300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR
    011//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 117.4E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 254 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP
    CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN
    THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, ALONG WITH A 232303Z
    SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    WITH MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SSTS, BEING OFFSET
    BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    AVERAGE FROM PGTW, RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
    TECHNIQUES (ADT).
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 232340Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 25-30 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
    AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE
    DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TS MA-ON IS
    EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60KTS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24.
    TS MA-ON NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED, CAPPING ANY GREATER
    DEVELOPMENT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG. THE STORM IS NOW
    EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH NEAR YANGJIANG,
    CHINA. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY
    ERODE AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
    NARROW SPREAD FROM 35NM AT TAU 12 TO A GRADUALLY SPREAD OF 110NM BY
    TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK. THE GFS
    AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE THE HIGHEST PEAK INTENSITIES
    BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KNOTS. JTWC HAS HEDGED THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY
    LOWER DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL
    INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE FROM A MAINTENANCE ISSUE AT FNMOC.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-24 12:33 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 52
    WP, 10, 2022082406,   , BEST,   0, 197N, 1168E,  55,  989, TS,  34, NEQ,  115,   85,   75,  105, 1004,  195,  25,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082406,   , BEST,   0, 197N, 1168E,  55,  989, TS,  50, NEQ,   60,   40,   30,   50, 1004,  195,  25,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-24 06:12 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 53

    WTPN31 PGTW 240900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       240600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 116.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 116.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 20.7N 114.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 21.6N 111.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 22.2N 107.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 22.7N 104.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 116.1E.
    24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z
    AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 240900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)
    WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 116.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES AN EXPOSED
    LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DECOUPLED FROM THE
    RAPIDLY-DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS SHEARING TO THE
    SOUTHWEST DUE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A
    240552Z
    ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE
    SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
    OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH PERSISTENT, STRONG VWS OFFSET SLIGHTLY
    BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
    STRUCTURE, BOTH THE KNES AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
    ASSESSED AS BEING TOO HIGH AND WERE POSITIONED IN THE DEEP
    CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NOW DECOUPLED AND EXPOSED LLCC.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 240501Z
       CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 240540Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 30+ KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LANDFALL
    EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. TS 10W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
    DAY AS IT TRACKS UNDER HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
    AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
    INLAND.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
    WITH A 30-40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO
    THE SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT TAU 12. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE
    FROM 53 TO 70 KNOTS WITH HWRF ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE,
    HOWEVER, THE 240000Z HWRF SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN
    THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE, WHICH SHOULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC
    FORECAST IS PLACED AT THE LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
    EXPECTATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-24 06:13 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 54
    WP, 10, 2022082412,   , BEST,   0, 200N, 1151E,  60,  985, TS,  34, NEQ,  125,  105,   95,   95, 1003,  195,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082412,   , BEST,   0, 200N, 1151E,  60,  985, TS,  50, NEQ,   65,   50,   45,   45, 1003,  195,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-25 06:24 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 55

    WTPN31 PGTW 241500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 013//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 013   
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       241200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 115.3E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 115.3E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 21.2N 112.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 21.9N 109.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 22.4N 105.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 114.6E.
    24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 241200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z
    AND 251500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 241500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)        
    WARNING NR 013//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 115.3E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
    PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON
    THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION,
    WHICH IS SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO HIGH
    NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240836Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
    COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
    INTO A PARTIALLY-OBSCURED LLCC WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE
    SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND A PARTIAL 241303Z ASCAT-B IMAGE.
    ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED MARGINAL WITH STRONG
    NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED
    BY THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
    EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 240922Z
       CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 241140Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 30+ KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR
    TAU 18. TS 10W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS IT
    TRACKS UNDER HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 18,
    THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE
    RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
    WITH A 30-50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
    JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 06:26 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 56
    WP, 10, 2022082418,   , BEST,   0, 204N, 1136E,  55,  986, TS,  34, NEQ,   85,  100,   90,   90, 1001,  140,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    WP, 10, 2022082418,   , BEST,   0, 204N, 1136E,  55,  986, TS,  50, NEQ,   50,   35,   30,   45, 1001,  140,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-25 06:27 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 57

    WTPN31 PGTW 242100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       241800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 113.6E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 113.6E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 21.2N 110.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 21.7N 107.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 22.1N 103.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    242100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 112.8E.
    24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 241800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z
    AND 252100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 242100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR
    014//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 113.6E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) IS HOLDING TOGETHER WELL DESPITE TAKING
    A POUNDING FROM NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WARM SEA WATERS
    AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE SUSTAINING THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND
    A SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 241355Z
    VERIFIES THE INTEGRITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
    THE OVERALL SYSTEM INTENSITY. THE JTWC FIX AT T3.5 WAS ON A PARTLY
    EXPOSED LLCC AND IS IN LOCK-STEP WITH THE JMA, SUPPORTING THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55KTS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
    AND A 241355Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE BOTTOM FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE EXTENDING OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN AN
    ANTICYCONE ALOFT DUE EAST OF TAIWAN AND DUE SOUTH OF OKINAWA.
    
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 241740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 30+ KTS
       SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE VIGOROUS
    NORTHEASTERLIES ALOFT.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIVE
    TROPICAL STORM MA-ON ALONG A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING AT A
    STEADY SPEED OF ADVANCE UNTIL IT DIES IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. ALONG THE
    WAY IT WILL CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE LUICHOW
    PENINSULA WITHOUT LOSING MUCH INTENSITY AND RE-GATHER ITSELF OVER
    THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. ALTHOUGH
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAR THE SYSTEM DOWN, IT WILL
    SURVIVE UNTIL IT HITS THE VIETNAMESE COAST. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
    OF NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL TEAR THE SYSTEM APART WITHIN 15 HOURS OF
    MAKING LANDFALL, AND IT WILL BE HARD TO LOCATE THE VORTEX SOONER
    THAN THAT.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THROUGHOUT THE
    LIFECYCLE OF THIS STORM. THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
    BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE SCENARIO OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT ONTO
    A LAND MASS IS SIMPLE. THEREFORE THE JWTC TRACK RIDES STRAIGHT ON
    TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENISTY FORECAST STAYS
    NEAR THE MEAN UNTIL THE LAST POSITION, WHEN THE TERRAIN IS CONSIDERED
    AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 06:28 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 58
    WP, 10, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 211N, 1117E,  55,  985, TS,  34, NEQ,  150,  150,   90,   70, 1001,  100,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    WP, 10, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 211N, 1117E,  55,  985, TS,  50, NEQ,   50,   30,   25,   40, 1001,  100,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, M, 
    2022-8-25 12:17 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 59

    WTPN31 PGTW 250300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       250000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 111.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 111.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 21.7N 108.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 22.2N 105.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 110.9E.
    25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG,
    HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET.
    NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
    REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN31 PGTW 250300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)
    WARNING NR 015//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 111.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 157 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TREMENDOUS
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WORKING ON TROPICAL STORM MA-ON. THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTLY EXPOSED WITH THE SYSTEM CENTER
    UNDER THE NORTHERNMOST BANDS OF THE CONVECTIVE SHIELD. A 242251Z
    SSMIS 37H ALLOWS FOR PRECISE POSITIONING AND VERIFIES THAT THE
    SYSTEM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND MOST OF ITS CORE.
    THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE
    MOST PART THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIGOROUS. SURFACE REPORTS AND AN
    OBSERVATION FROM AN UNFORTUNATE SHIP NEAR THE CENTER CONFIRM THE
    INTENSITY. WARM SEA WATERS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG TRACK
    ARE HELPING MA-ON FIGHT THE WINDSHEAR.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK BLENDED WITH
    PERSISTENCE FROM A
    241355Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 242252Z
       CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 242350Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 30+ KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM MA-ON WILL CONTINUE STEADILY
    ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING UNTIL IT DIES IN NORTHERN
    VIETNAM. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE
    LUICHOW PENINSULA WITHOUT LOSING MUCH INTENSITY AND RE-GATHER ITSELF
    OVER THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE STORM IS
    ZEROING IN ON A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF FANGCHENGANG NEAR THE
    VIETNAMESE BORDER. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WAY
    BUT THE WARM WATERS WILL SUPPORT THE SYSTEM THROUGH LANDFALL. THE
    MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL
    TEAR THE SYSTEM APART WITHIN 15 HOURS OF MAKING LANDFALL, AND IT
    WILL BE HARD TO LOCATE THE VORTEX SOONER THAN THAT.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH
    TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE SCENARIO OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT ONTO A
    LAND MASS IS SIMPLE. THEREFORE THE JWTC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO
    RIDE STRAIGHT ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY
    FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN UNTIL THE LAST POSITION, WHEN THE
    TERRAIN IS CONSIDERED AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS DROPPED BELOW
    GUIDANCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 12:18 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 60
    WP, 10, 2022082506,   , BEST,   0, 218N, 1101E,  45,  991, TS,  34, NEQ,  115,  105,   90,   90, 1001,  140,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,      MA-ON, D, 
    2022-8-25 08:36 回复
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