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WTPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 117.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 117.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 20.3N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.3N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.1N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.6N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 116.8E. 24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 254 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.3N 117.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 254 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP, ALONG WITH A 232303Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SSTS, BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE FROM PGTW, RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 232340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER CENTRAL CHINA. TS MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60KTS SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. TS MA-ON NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED, CAPPING ANY GREATER DEVELOPMENT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG. THE STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH NEAR YANGJIANG, CHINA. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW SPREAD FROM 35NM AT TAU 12 TO A GRADUALLY SPREAD OF 110NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK. THE GFS AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE THE HIGHEST PEAK INTENSITIES BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KNOTS. JTWC HAS HEDGED THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM A MAINTENANCE ISSUE AT FNMOC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-24 12:33 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 116.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 116.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 20.7N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.6N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.2N 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.7N 104.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 116.1E. 24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 116.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 213 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DECOUPLED FROM THE RAPIDLY-DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS SHEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 240552Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH PERSISTENT, STRONG VWS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, BOTH THE KNES AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED AS BEING TOO HIGH AND WERE POSITIONED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NOW DECOUPLED AND EXPOSED LLCC. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 240501Z CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 240540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. TS 10W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT TRACKS UNDER HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 30-40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT TAU 12. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 53 TO 70 KNOTS WITH HWRF ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, THE 240000Z HWRF SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE, WHICH SHOULD HINDER INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED AT THE LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-24 06:13 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 115.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 115.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 21.2N 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.9N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.4N 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 114.6E. 24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 115.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS SHEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240836Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-OBSCURED LLCC WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND A PARTIAL 241303Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED MARGINAL WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING NUMEROUS 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 240922Z CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 241140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED NEAR TAU 18. TS 10W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS IT TRACKS UNDER HIGH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 30-50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN2022-8-25 06:26 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 113.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 113.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.2N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.7N 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.1N 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 112.8E. 24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 113.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) IS HOLDING TOGETHER WELL DESPITE TAKING A POUNDING FROM NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WARM SEA WATERS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE SUSTAINING THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND A SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 241355Z VERIFIES THE INTEGRITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM INTENSITY. THE JTWC FIX AT T3.5 WAS ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC AND IS IN LOCK-STEP WITH THE JMA, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 241355Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE BOTTOM FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN AN ANTICYCONE ALOFT DUE EAST OF TAIWAN AND DUE SOUTH OF OKINAWA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 241740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE VIGOROUS NORTHEASTERLIES ALOFT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIVE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON ALONG A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING AT A STEADY SPEED OF ADVANCE UNTIL IT DIES IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA WITHOUT LOSING MUCH INTENSITY AND RE-GATHER ITSELF OVER THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAR THE SYSTEM DOWN, IT WILL SURVIVE UNTIL IT HITS THE VIETNAMESE COAST. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL TEAR THE SYSTEM APART WITHIN 15 HOURS OF MAKING LANDFALL, AND IT WILL BE HARD TO LOCATE THE VORTEX SOONER THAN THAT. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THROUGHOUT THE LIFECYCLE OF THIS STORM. THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE SCENARIO OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT ONTO A LAND MASS IS SIMPLE. THEREFORE THE JWTC TRACK RIDES STRAIGHT ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENISTY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN UNTIL THE LAST POSITION, WHEN THE TERRAIN IS CONSIDERED AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 06:28 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.7N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.2N 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 110.9E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 111.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 157 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TREMENDOUS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WORKING ON TROPICAL STORM MA-ON. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTLY EXPOSED WITH THE SYSTEM CENTER UNDER THE NORTHERNMOST BANDS OF THE CONVECTIVE SHIELD. A 242251Z SSMIS 37H ALLOWS FOR PRECISE POSITIONING AND VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND MOST OF ITS CORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIGOROUS. SURFACE REPORTS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM AN UNFORTUNATE SHIP NEAR THE CENTER CONFIRM THE INTENSITY. WARM SEA WATERS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG TRACK ARE HELPING MA-ON FIGHT THE WINDSHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE FROM A 241355Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 242252Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 242350Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM MA-ON WILL CONTINUE STEADILY ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING UNTIL IT DIES IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA WITHOUT LOSING MUCH INTENSITY AND RE-GATHER ITSELF OVER THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE STORM IS ZEROING IN ON A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF FANGCHENGANG NEAR THE VIETNAMESE BORDER. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WAY BUT THE WARM WATERS WILL SUPPORT THE SYSTEM THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL TEAR THE SYSTEM APART WITHIN 15 HOURS OF MAKING LANDFALL, AND IT WILL BE HARD TO LOCATE THE VORTEX SOONER THAN THAT. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE SCENARIO OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT ONTO A LAND MASS IS SIMPLE. THEREFORE THE JWTC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO RIDE STRAIGHT ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN UNTIL THE LAST POSITION, WHEN THE TERRAIN IS CONSIDERED AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 12:18 回复 -