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WP, 93, 2022081506, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1600E, 15, 1010, DB,
最后于 2022-8-27 05:00
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WTPN31 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 21.8N 110.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 110.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.5N 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 23.0N 102.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 109.2E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA CONFIRMS THAT TS 10W MADE LANDFALL JUST SOUTHWEST OF YANGJIANG, CHINA AT 250200Z AND HAS SINCE RAPIDLY MOVED INLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI, ANIMATED RADAR DATA AND ANALYSIS OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN RJTD OVER LAND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0, AND MSLP OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE CENTER WITH NUMEROUS SITES REPORTING 995MB. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING A RAPID CLIP TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE GULF OF TONKIN SHORELINE, CROSSING FAR NORTHERN VIETNAM AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHINA NO LATER THAN TAU 24. WHILE NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD DUCK DOWN AND TOUCH ITS FEET INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN BETWEEN AND TAU 12. IF THIS OCCURS HOWEVER, IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO ANY REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. SO WHILE THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN2022-8-25 08:38 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 111.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 111.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.7N 108.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 22.2N 105.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 110.9E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 111.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 157 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TREMENDOUS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WORKING ON TROPICAL STORM MA-ON. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTLY EXPOSED WITH THE SYSTEM CENTER UNDER THE NORTHERNMOST BANDS OF THE CONVECTIVE SHIELD. A 242251Z SSMIS 37H ALLOWS FOR PRECISE POSITIONING AND VERIFIES THAT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND MOST OF ITS CORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIGOROUS. SURFACE REPORTS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM AN UNFORTUNATE SHIP NEAR THE CENTER CONFIRM THE INTENSITY. WARM SEA WATERS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG TRACK ARE HELPING MA-ON FIGHT THE WINDSHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE FROM A 241355Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 242252Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 242350Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM MA-ON WILL CONTINUE STEADILY ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING UNTIL IT DIES IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA WITHOUT LOSING MUCH INTENSITY AND RE-GATHER ITSELF OVER THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE STORM IS ZEROING IN ON A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF FANGCHENGANG NEAR THE VIETNAMESE BORDER. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WAY BUT THE WARM WATERS WILL SUPPORT THE SYSTEM THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA AND NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL TEAR THE SYSTEM APART WITHIN 15 HOURS OF MAKING LANDFALL, AND IT WILL BE HARD TO LOCATE THE VORTEX SOONER THAN THAT. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE SCENARIO OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT ONTO A LAND MASS IS SIMPLE. THEREFORE THE JWTC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO RIDE STRAIGHT ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN UNTIL THE LAST POSITION, WHEN THE TERRAIN IS CONSIDERED AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 12:18 回复 -
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WTPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 113.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 113.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 21.2N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 21.7N 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 22.1N 103.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 112.8E. 24AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.4N 113.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) IS HOLDING TOGETHER WELL DESPITE TAKING A POUNDING FROM NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WARM SEA WATERS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE SUSTAINING THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX AND A SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 241355Z VERIFIES THE INTEGRITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM INTENSITY. THE JTWC FIX AT T3.5 WAS ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC AND IS IN LOCK-STEP WITH THE JMA, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 55KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 241355Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE BOTTOM FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN AN ANTICYCONE ALOFT DUE EAST OF TAIWAN AND DUE SOUTH OF OKINAWA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 241740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE VIGOROUS NORTHEASTERLIES ALOFT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIVE TROPICAL STORM MA-ON ALONG A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEARING AT A STEADY SPEED OF ADVANCE UNTIL IT DIES IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL CROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF THE LUICHOW PENINSULA WITHOUT LOSING MUCH INTENSITY AND RE-GATHER ITSELF OVER THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAR THE SYSTEM DOWN, IT WILL SURVIVE UNTIL IT HITS THE VIETNAMESE COAST. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM WILL TEAR THE SYSTEM APART WITHIN 15 HOURS OF MAKING LANDFALL, AND IT WILL BE HARD TO LOCATE THE VORTEX SOONER THAN THAT. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT THROUGHOUT THE LIFECYCLE OF THIS STORM. THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THE SCENARIO OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT ONTO A LAND MASS IS SIMPLE. THEREFORE THE JWTC TRACK RIDES STRAIGHT ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENISTY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN UNTIL THE LAST POSITION, WHEN THE TERRAIN IS CONSIDERED AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS DROPPED BELOW GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 06:28 回复 -