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编扰资讯
IO, 99, 2022081712, , BEST, 0, 180N, 950E, 15, 999, DB,
最后于 2022-8-22 05:25
被ygsj24编辑
，原因：
最新回复 (23)
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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DISORGANIZED BUT DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING FROM THE SOUTH FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OVER SOUTHERN MYANMAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR INVEST 99B TO INTENSIFY IN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, WARM (29C) WATERS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WIND SHEAR, WHILE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLY HIGH, IS FORECAST TO LOWER TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS (10-15KTS) AS THE AXIS OF STRONG TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) WINDS ALOFT MOVES SOUTH. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT MEMBER GROUPINGS TAKING 99B NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AND QUICKLY CROSSING THE NORTHERN BOB BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE INDIA/BANGLADESH COASTLINE BY TAU 60. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS FROM THE TEJ AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST INVEST 99B WILL RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO AT LEAST STRONG TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
2022-8-18 08:05 回复 -
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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 99B IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE INVEST 99B WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A CIRCULATION, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FOR CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSITY. BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE MEMBERS THAT SHOW POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT WHILE INVEST 99B TRANSITS THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS FROM THE TEJ AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 29 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
2022-8-18 12:12 回复 -
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WTIO21 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 92.3E TO 21.5N 88.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 180359Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 35KTS IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TEJ, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INVEST 99B WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KOLKATA AND MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190900Z.// NNNN
2022-8-18 06:18 回复 -
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