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WTIO31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180851ZAUG2022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 89.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 89.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 21.2N 88.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.9N 86.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.6N 84.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E. 18AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 180900Z). // NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 89.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 151 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS OF BUILDING CONVECTION OVER AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. AN 181859Z 37 GHZ GMI PASS INDICATES AN CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLC IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THIS PASS ALSO INDICATES A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04B IS IN A MARGINAL AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A HIGH MAGNITUDE 850 MB SIGNATURE, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES, PARTIAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA, INDIA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE, SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN KNES AND DEMS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 180359Z. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS DEMS: T1.0 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS ON A DIRECT PATH TO MAKE LANDFALL 74 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST INDIA. THE INTENSITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MAXIMUM OF 50 KNOTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST. BY TAU 24 TC 04B WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS AND BEGIN DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER LANDFALL. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BE DISSIPATED WITH THE INTENSITY FALLING TO 30 KNOTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS ENVELOPE IS RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 27 NM BY TAU 12, DECREASING TO 14 NM AFTER LANDFALL BY TAU 24. DUE TO THIS TIGHT ENVELOPE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 10-15 KNOT SPREAD AT TAU 12, WITH HWRF AND COAMPS-TC BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THIS COUPLED WITH THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-19 05:58 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 89.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 89.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.6N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.3N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.9N 83.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 88.7E. 19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z. // NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 89.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS OF BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. AN 182313Z 91 GHZ SSMIS PASS SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLC. THIS PASS ALSO INDICATES A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS WELL AS IN THE OUTER BAND THAT STRETCHES NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH SPLIT WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A HIGH MAGNITUDE 850 MB SIGNATURE, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES, PARTIAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SET LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND HIGHER THAN AUTOMATED AND OTHER AGENCY DVORAKS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 182115Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B CONTINUES ON A DIRECT PATH TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST INDIA APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA. THE INTENSITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 DURING LANDFALL AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. BY TAU 24 TC 04B WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS AND BEGIN DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BE DISSIPATED WITH THE INTENSITY FALLING TO 30 KNOTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY TIGHT AIMING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NAVGEM BEING THE OUTLIER WITH A JOG WESTWARD IMMEDIATELY OUT TO TAU 12, THEN EASING INTO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AFTERWARDS. DUE TO THIS OUTLIER THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WITH A 5-10 KNOT SPREAD AT TAU 12. THIS IMPROVED AGREEMENT COUPLED WITH THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-19 12:23 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 89.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 89.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.8N 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.5N 85.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.1N 82.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 88.7E. 19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 89.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE, FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 190334Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED INNER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS SURROUNDING A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RECENT NORTHWESTWARD TURN BROUGHT THE CENTER CLOSE TO SUNDARBAN NATIONAL PARK, ON THE BANGLADESH, INDIA BORDER, HOWEVER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE UNAVAILABLE IN THIS REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. ADT ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS WITH THE RAW T NUMBERS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 41-45 KNOTS. TC 04B HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HAS DEVELOPED IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT IN ADDITION TO VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AS THE MODELS PREDICTED, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 190645Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE COAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 15 NM (TAU 12) TO 40NM (TAU 24) SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 12 WITH DECAY SHIPS (GFS VERSION), THE SOLE OUTLIER, INDICATING A PEAK TO 50 KNOTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-19 06:13 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 88.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 88.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 22.6N 86.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.2N 84.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 87.7E. 19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// NNNNWDIO31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.7N 88.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 55 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA, 50NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. EVEN WITH RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 191026Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LLCC IS NEAR SAGAR ISLAND BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 BASED ON THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 190726Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 190915Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 35NM (TAU 12) TO 65NM (TAU 24) SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN2022-8-20 05:58 回复 -
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WTIO31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 87.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 87.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.8N 85.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.5N 83.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 86.8E. 19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM THE COASTAL REGION OF KOLKATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN INDIA, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEGRADE BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. // NNNN2022-8-20 05:59 回复 -