孟加拉湾北部深低压BOB 07(04B) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-18 08:00 888

最新回复 (23)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 11

    WTIO31 PGTW 182100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180851ZAUG2022//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       181800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 89.9E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 89.9E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       190600Z --- 21.2N 88.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       191800Z --- 21.9N 86.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       200600Z --- 22.6N 84.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    182100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
    18AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151
    NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
    AND 192100Z.
    2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 180900Z).
    //
    NNNN
    WDIO31 PGTW 182100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR)
    WARNING NR 001//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 89.9E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 151 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS
    OF BUILDING CONVECTION OVER AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
    TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. AN 181859Z
    37 GHZ GMI PASS INDICATES AN CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
    BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLC IN THE NORTHEAST AND
    SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. THIS PASS ALSO INDICATES A MAJORITY OF THE
    CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04B IS IN A MARGINAL AREA FOR FURTHER
    DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A HIGH MAGNITUDE 850 MB
    SIGNATURE, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
    STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION
    IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES,
    PARTIAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA, INDIA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
    EIR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE, SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
    KNES AND DEMS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 180359Z.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       DEMS: T1.0 - 25 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 25-30 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS ON A DIRECT PATH TO MAKE LANDFALL 74
    NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST INDIA.
    THE INTENSITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS THE
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE
    UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
    TO REACH A MAXIMUM OF 50 KNOTS JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO THE
    OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
    WEST-NORTHWEST. BY TAU 24 TC 04B WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40
    KNOTS AND BEGIN DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER LANDFALL.
    BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BE DISSIPATED WITH THE INTENSITY FALLING
    TO 30 KNOTS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS ENVELOPE IS RELATIVELY
    TIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 27 NM BY TAU 12, DECREASING TO 14 NM
    AFTER LANDFALL BY TAU 24. DUE TO THIS TIGHT ENVELOPE THE CONFIDENCE
    IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER
    GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 10-15 KNOT SPREAD AT TAU 12, WITH HWRF AND
    COAMPS-TC BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THIS COUPLED WITH THE IMPROVING
    ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
    JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-19 05:58 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 12
    IO, 04, 2022081900,   , BEST,   0, 208N,  891E,  40,  991, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,   50,   40,   45, 1000,  180,  35,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, S, 
    2022-8-19 12:22 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 13

    WTIO31 PGTW 190300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       190000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 89.1E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 89.1E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       191200Z --- 21.6N 87.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       200000Z --- 22.3N 85.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       201200Z --- 22.9N 83.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    190300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 88.7E.
    19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
    NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
    //
    NNNN
    WDIO31 PGTW 190300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR
    002//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 89.1E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MASS
    OF BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ASSESSED
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
    NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. AN 182313Z 91 GHZ SSMIS PASS SHOWS
    FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WRAPPING
    INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLC. THIS PASS ALSO INDICATES A MAJORITY OF
    THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS WELL AS IN
    THE OUTER BAND THAT STRETCHES NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF KOLKATA,
    INDIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04B IS IN A MARGINALLY
    FAVORABLE AREA FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH SPLIT WESTWARD AND
    EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A HIGH MAGNITUDE 850 MB SIGNATURE,
    AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE
    (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES,
    PARTIAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM KOLKATA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
    EIR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE SET LOWER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND HIGHER THAN
    AUTOMATED AND OTHER AGENCY DVORAKS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 182115Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B CONTINUES ON A DIRECT PATH TO MAKE
    LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST INDIA APPROXIMATELY 75
    NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA. THE INTENSITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO 45
    KNOTS BY TAU 12 DURING LANDFALL AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL
    WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. BY TAU 24 TC 04B WILL DECREASE IN
    INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS AND BEGIN DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
    BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BE DISSIPATED WITH THE INTENSITY FALLING
    TO 30 KNOTS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO BE
    RELATIVELY TIGHT AIMING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NAVGEM BEING THE OUTLIER
    WITH A JOG WESTWARD IMMEDIATELY OUT TO TAU 12, THEN EASING INTO A
    MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AFTERWARDS. DUE TO THIS OUTLIER THE
    JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SET SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE
    PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WITH A 5-10 KNOT SPREAD AT TAU 12. THIS IMPROVED
    AGREEMENT COUPLED WITH THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 18
    HOURS LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS
    SET SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-19 12:23 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 14
    IO, 04, 2022081906,   , BEST,   0, 211N,  890E,  45,  990, TS,  34, NEQ,   85,   65,   70,   70, 1002,  200,  30,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, M, 
    2022-8-19 06:10 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 15

    WTIO31 PGTW 190900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 003
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       190600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 89.1E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 89.1E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       191800Z --- 21.8N 87.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       200600Z --- 22.5N 85.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       201800Z --- 23.1N 82.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    190900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 88.7E.
    19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z,
    192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
    NNNN
    WDIO31 PGTW 190900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR)
    WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 89.1E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
    CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
    A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ALSO SHOWS
    EXTENSIVE, FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
    A 190334Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED INNER
    CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS
    SURROUNDING A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
    POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE RECENT NORTHWESTWARD TURN
    BROUGHT THE CENTER CLOSE TO SUNDARBAN NATIONAL PARK, ON THE
    BANGLADESH, INDIA BORDER, HOWEVER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
    UNAVAILABLE IN THIS REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
    ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
    ESTIMATES. ADT ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS WITH THE
    RAW T NUMBERS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 41-45 KNOTS. TC 04B HAS BEEN ABLE
    TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HAS
    DEVELOPED IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT IN ADDITION TO
    VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AS THE MODELS PREDICTED, VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 190645Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
    NORTH WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. SLIGHT
    INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 IF THE
    SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE COAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
    TRACK INLAND AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT WITH A 15 NM (TAU 12) TO 40NM (TAU 24) SPREAD IN
    SOLUTIONS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU
    12 WITH DECAY SHIPS (GFS VERSION), THE SOLE OUTLIER, INDICATING A
    PEAK TO 50 KNOTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
    TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-19 06:13 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 16
    IO, 04, 2022081912,   , BEST,   0, 217N,  882E,  40,  995, TS,  34, NEQ,   55,   70,   75,   50, 1002,  200,  30,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, M, 
    2022-8-20 05:52 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 17

    WTIO31 PGTW 191500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 004   
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       191200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 88.2E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND RADAR
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 88.2E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       200000Z --- 22.6N 86.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       201200Z --- 23.2N 84.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    191500Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 87.7E.
    19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
    SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
    08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z AND
    200900Z.//
    NNNN
    WDIO31 PGTW 191500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR)
    WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 21.7N 88.2E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 55 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TC 04B IS MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF INDIA, 50NM SOUTH OF
    KOLKATA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
    SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. EVEN WITH RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 191026Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
    COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE
    WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A RAGGED
    BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LLCC IS NEAR SAGAR ISLAND BUT WIND SPEEDS
    ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED
    WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
    INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 BASED ON THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 190726Z
       CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 190915Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 04B IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
    NORTH WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
    LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT WITH A 35NM (TAU 12) TO 65NM (TAU 24) SPREAD IN
    SOLUTIONS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
    2022-8-20 05:58 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 18
    IO, 04, 2022081918,   , BEST,   0, 220N,  873E,  35,  995, TS,  34, NEQ,  140,   80,   55,  105, 1002,  200,  30,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, M, 
    2022-8-20 05:58 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 19

    WTIO31 PGTW 192100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 005
       01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       191800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 87.3E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
         SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 87.3E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       200600Z --- 22.8N 85.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       201800Z --- 23.5N 83.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
        ---
    REMARKS:
    192100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 86.8E.
    19AUG22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM
    WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM THE COASTAL REGION
    OF KOLKATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE PAST
    FEW HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    OVER EASTERN INDIA, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEGRADE
    BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. THIS IS THE
    FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
    HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
    REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12
    FEET. //
    NNNN
    2022-8-20 05:59 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 20
    IO, 04, 2022082000,   , BEST,   0, 227N,  855E,  30,  998, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1002,  200,  30,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, M, 
    2022-8-20 12:24 回复
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