孟加拉湾北部深低压BOB 07(04B) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-18 08:00 888






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编扰资讯
IO, 99, 2022081712, , BEST, 0, 180N, 950E, 15, 999, DB,
最后于 2022-8-22 05:25 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
最新回复 (23)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 2
    IO, 99, 2022081700,   , BEST,   0, 171N,  961E,  15,  999, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    IO, 99, 2022081706,   , BEST,   0, 176N,  955E,  15,  999, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    IO, 99, 2022081712,   , BEST,   0, 180N,  950E,  15,  999, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    2022-8-18 08:00 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 3

          (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0N
    95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED
    ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DISORGANIZED BUT
    DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING FROM THE SOUTH
    FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OVER SOUTHERN
    MYANMAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    INVEST 99B TO INTENSIFY IN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, WARM
    (29C) WATERS, STRONG LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
    OUTFLOW. WIND SHEAR, WHILE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLY HIGH, IS FORECAST TO
    LOWER TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS (10-15KTS) AS THE AXIS OF STRONG
    TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ) WINDS ALOFT MOVES SOUTH. DETERMINISTIC
    MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING
    GEFS AND ECENS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT MEMBER GROUPINGS
    TAKING 99B NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AND QUICKLY
    CROSSING THE NORTHERN BOB  BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
    INDIA/BANGLADESH COASTLINE BY TAU 60. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS FROM THE TEJ
    AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MODELS SUGGEST INVEST 99B WILL RAPIDLY
    CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO AT LEAST STRONG TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
    WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
    IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
    2022-8-18 08:05 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 4
    IO, 99, 2022081718,   , BEST,   0, 185N,  943E,  25,  995, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    2022-8-18 08:05 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 5
    IO, 99, 2022081800,   , BEST,   0, 189N,  934E,  25,  994, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  996,   80,  35,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S, 
    2022-8-18 12:11 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 6

          (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
    18.4N 94.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    (MSI) SHOWS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH A LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 99B IS
    IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED
    BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A STRONG 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND WARM
    (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
    INDICATE INVEST 99B WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A CIRCULATION,
    WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FOR CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSITY. BOTH
    GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE MEMBERS THAT SHOW POTENTIAL TC DEVELOPMENT
    WHILE INVEST 99B TRANSITS THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. HIGH LEVELS OF VWS
    FROM THE TEJ AREA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
    INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 29 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
    UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
    2022-8-18 12:12 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 7
    IO, 99, 2022081806,   , BEST,   0, 195N,  922E,  30,  992, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  996,  170,  35,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S, 
    2022-8-18 06:16 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 8

    WTIO21 PGTW 180900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99B)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
    A LINE FROM 19.5N 92.3E TO 21.5N 88.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA
    DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
    THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A
    CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 12 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 93.4E IS
    NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
    ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
    INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 180359Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS WIND SPEEDS OF
    UP TO 35KTS IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
    CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH THE TEJ, A SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
    INDICATES THAT INVEST 99B WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD KOLKATA AND MAKE
    LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. INVEST 99B IS EXPECTED TO
    TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOWER VWS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
    ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    190900Z.//
    NNNN
    2022-8-18 06:18 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 9
    IO, 99, 2022081812,   , BEST,   0, 202N,  907E,  30,  993, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,  996,  170,  35,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S, 
    2022-8-19 05:56 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 10
    IO, 04, 2022081818,   , BEST,   0, 205N,  899E,  35,  992, TS,  34, NEQ,   35,   35,   20,   20, 1000,  180,  35,   0,   0,   B,   0,    ,   0,   0,       FOUR, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, ioA92022 to io042022, 
    2022-8-19 05:56 回复
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