最新回复 (21)
-
-
WTNT01 KNGU 192100
-WTNT44 KNHC 192052 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt. However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if they are correct any development could be slower than currently forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming over western and northern Texas. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far south Texas during the day on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven最后于 2022-8-20 12:32 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：2022-8-20 06:06 回复 -
-
WTNT01 KNGU 200300 COR SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 002 COR 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 94.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 94.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 23.2N 96.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.1N 97.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 26.9N 99.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 95.2W. 20AUG22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM NORTH OF TEHUANTEPEC, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. // BT #0001 NNNNWTNT44 KNHC 200231 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep convection. Since there has been little change in organization after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data. The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus model guidance. Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall. Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the next day or so, which should limit future organization and strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours near the Texas/Mexico border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi2022-8-20 12:30 回复 -
-
WTNT01 KNGU 200900 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 003 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 95.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 95.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 24.4N 96.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.3N 98.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 27.5N 99.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY POST-TROP/REMNT LOW --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 95.8W. 20AUG22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM NORTH OF TEHUANTEPEC, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. // BT #0001 NNNNWTNT44 KNHC 200832 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 We have a much better view of the low clouds on the western side of the disturbance in proxy-visible satellite imagery than we did last evening when they were obscured by high-level cirrus, and the low clouds' south-to-north motion just off the coast of Mexico suggests that the disturbance still does not have a closed surface circulation. However, a mid-level circulation remains evident and is the focus of a recent resurgence in deep convection. It is assumed that the maximum winds in the system are still 30 kt, but an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight scheduled for later this morning should give us a better idea of the disturbance's structure and intensity. The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt, and model guidance is in fairly good agreement that a steady northwestward or north-northwestward motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so. This trajectory should bring the system inland near or just south of the mouth of the Rio Grande late this afternoon or evening, which is the same scenario that has been indicated in previous advisories. There remains uncertainty if the disturbance will be able to develop a closed surface circulation--and become a tropical cyclone--before it reaches the coast later today. At best, the global models are resolving a well-defined vorticity maximum at about 5000 ft above the surface and perhaps a surface trough near the coast of Mexico, but none of them explicitly show the development of a well-defined surface circulation. As long as deep convection continues, however, it could spur the development of a surface center before reaching the coast. That said, the new NHC forecast now only shows the system reaching a peak intensity of 35 kt, which is still above all of the guidance. A remnant low position is provided at 36 hours for continuity, but it's more likely that the system will have dissipated by then--if it even forms at all. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this afternoon and evening, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, today. This rainfall may produce flash flooding. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Sunday morning, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 22.8N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1800Z 24.4N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0600Z 26.3N 98.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg2022-8-20 06:13 回复 -
-
WTNT01 KNGU 201500 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 004 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 23.1N 96.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 080 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 96.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 25.1N 97.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 27.0N 98.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 96.4W. 20AUG22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM NORTH OF TEHUANTEPEC, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. // BT #0001 NNNNWTNT44 KNHC 201432 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images indicate that the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized. Flight-level wind data confirms that the system is still a surface trough that is not far offshore of the Gulf coast of Mexico. It should be noted that the initial position in the advisory is based on extrapolation of the mid-level center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the aircraft data and Dvorak estimates. The chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Regardless of the system's status, the overall impacts are expected to be the same. Winds to tropical storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later today and continue into Sunday. After the system moves inland, quick weakening is expected and the disturbance is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night over southern Texas. The overall envelope of the shower and thunderstorm activity is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in 24 to 36 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this afternoon and evening, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, today. This rainfall may produce flash flooding. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Sunday morning, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 23.6N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/1200Z 27.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto2022-8-21 05:42 回复 -
-
WTNT01 KNGU 202100 SUBJ: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 005 1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 97.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 97.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.3N 98.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 97.3W. 20AUG22. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (04L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE ARE NO 12 FT SEAS MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z. // BT #0001 NNNNWTNT44 KNHC 202033 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022 Satellite images, surface observations, and a recent ASCAT-B pass indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized this afternoon and still resembles a surface trough with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf of Mexico. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. The chances of this system becoming a tropical storm continue to decrease as the trough is expected to move inland this evening. Even though the system will probably fall short of becoming a tropical cyclone, the expected impacts are unchanged as heavy rains and winds to tropical storm force, especially in gusts, are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the next several hours. After landfall, the disturbance is expected to weaken and dissipate on Sunday. The disturbance continues to move northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates on Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this evening and tonight, where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Rain from the disturbance are beginning to affect the northeastern coast of Mexico across the state of Tamaulipas. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding. The system could also produce isolated moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of South Texas, but significant flooding impacts are not expected there. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 24.4N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0600Z 26.3N 98.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi2022-8-21 05:44 回复