2210号强台风“蝎虎”(11W.Tokage) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-22 11:00 842

最新回复 (35)
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 11

    WTPN32 PGTW 222100
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       221800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 151.3E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 151.3E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       230600Z --- 29.6N 150.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 32.1N 149.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 34.1N 149.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 36.1N 150.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 42.7N 154.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 151.1E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 767
    NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    WDPN32 PGTW 222100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 27.2N 151.3E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 767 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS FORMATIVE BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTH,
    WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SEMI-CIRCUALR EYE FEATURE IN THE 221811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED EITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
    DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS.
    
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: NONE
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
    THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE NORHTWARD AFTER TAU
    24, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABEL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL
    SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
    WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AN COMMENCE
    EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
    THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    //
    2022-8-23 07:56 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 12
    WP, 11, 2022082300,   , BEST,   0, 285N, 1505E,  60,  987, TS,  34, NEQ,  110,   75,   60,   65, 1009,  210,  25,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, M, 
    WP, 11, 2022082300,   , BEST,   0, 285N, 1505E,  60,  987, TS,  50, NEQ,   55,   30,   25,   25, 1009,  210,  25,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, M, 
    2022-8-23 12:23 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 13

    WTPN32 PGTW 230300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       230000Z --- NEAR 28.5N 150.5E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 150.5E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       231200Z --- 31.0N 149.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 33.7N 149.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 35.6N 149.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 38.3N 151.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 26 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 47.0N 159.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    230300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 150.3E.
    23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
    SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
    IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
    SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 230300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR
    004//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 28.5N 150.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 684 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED
    SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS NOW
    HAS A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
    AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIXES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
    FORMATIVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE
    PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW
    VWS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 222120Z
       CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 5-10 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
    THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 12, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE
    ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
    FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS BY TAU 36.
    AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
    THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE
    BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY
    TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 40-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
    MINOR AND EVEN SPREADING UP TO TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
    THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF GRADIENT WINDS
    INTRODUCED DURING ETT.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 12:24 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 14
    WP, 11, 2022082306,   , BEST,   0, 302N, 1498E,  65,  982, TY,  34, NEQ,  115,  100,   70,   75, 1008,  180,  15,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082306,   , BEST,   0, 302N, 1498E,  65,  982, TY,  50, NEQ,   55,   50,   30,   30, 1008,  180,  15,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082306,   , BEST,   0, 302N, 1498E,  65,  982, TY,  64, NEQ,   15,   15,   15,   15, 1008,  180,  15,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-23 05:54 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 15

    WTPN32 PGTW 230900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005
       UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       230600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 149.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 149.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 32.8N 149.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 35.1N 149.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 38.0N 150.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 41.4N 154.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 47.8N 164.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    230900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 149.6E.
    23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM
    NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
    NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER
    TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
    SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 230900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 30.2N 149.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 424 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI
    SHIMA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS FLIRTED WITH EYE
    FORMATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
    BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
    230530Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A 90NM DIAMETER
    CONVECTIVE CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
    FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH
    MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    AND WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES. BASED ON THE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN
    ORGANIZATION, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO
    65 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KTS
    WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE EAST
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 231149Z
       CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 230540Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHWARD TO
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
    TY 11W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO
    A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
    TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT FIRST INTERACTS WITH THE
    MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND
    TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
    NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
    THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 50 NM
    THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH NAVGEM THE
    SOLE OUTLIER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
    RANGING FROM 65 TO 85 KNOTS AT TAU 24 THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
    JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED AT THE UPPER RANGE OF
    FORECASTS CLOSE TO THE HWRF SOLUTION BASED ON THE STRONG POSSIBILITY
    OF EYE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 06:19 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 16
    WP, 11, 2022082312,   , BEST,   0, 316N, 1490E,  80,  971, TY,  34, NEQ,  105,   90,   65,   65, 1008,  180,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082312,   , BEST,   0, 316N, 1490E,  80,  971, TY,  50, NEQ,   40,   40,   30,   30, 1008,  180,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082312,   , BEST,   0, 316N, 1490E,  80,  971, TY,  64, NEQ,   25,   25,   15,   15, 1008,  180,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-24 06:26 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 17

    WTPN32 PGTW 231500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       231200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 149.0E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 149.0E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 34.1N 148.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 36.7N 149.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 39.8N 152.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 43.1N 156.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 49.7N 169.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    231500Z POSITION NEAR 32.2N 149.0E.
    23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM
    NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z,
    240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON)
    WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 231500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 31.6N 149.0E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 446 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TY 11W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS FROM 45 KNOTS AT 221200Z TO
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT 231200Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED
    INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A
    SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 9NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
    INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND ROBUST
    EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
    (29-30C) SST VALUES. WITH THE RECENT FORMATION OF A PERSISTENT EYE
    IN EIR IMAGERY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE JUMPED TO
    TO 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ADT ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED QUICKLY FROM
    75 KNOTS AT 231210Z TO 90 KNOTS AT 231340Z. ADDITIONALLY, THE RAW T
    NUMBER HAS INCREASED TO 5.3 (ABOUT 95 KNOTS) WITH AN EYE TEMP OF
    +7.5C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE 231200Z DATA IS ASSESSED
    AT 80 KTS BUT IS CLEARLY TRENDING UP; THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN
    THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A
    DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A 231146Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE.
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE EAST
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 231149Z
       CIMSS ADT: 75 KTS AT 231210Z
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTH-
    NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY
    11W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO A
    PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
    TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT FIRST INTERACTS WITH THE
    MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND TAU
    36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
    NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
    THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 75 NM
    THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK
    INTENSITY RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 KNOTS AT TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE JTWC
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT RAPID
    INTENSIFICATION TREND AND ROBUST OUTFLOW.
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//=
    2022-8-24 06:27 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 18
    WP, 11, 2022082318,   , BEST,   0, 330N, 1485E,  90,  963, TY,  34, NEQ,  105,  125,   75,   65, 1008,  180,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082318,   , BEST,   0, 330N, 1485E,  90,  963, TY,  50, NEQ,   50,   65,   35,   25, 1008,  180,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082318,   , BEST,   0, 330N, 1485E,  90,  963, TY,  64, NEQ,   25,   35,   15,   15, 1008,  180,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-24 06:28 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 19

    WTPN32 PGTW 232100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       231800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 148.5E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 148.5E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 35.4N 148.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 38.1N 150.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 41.1N 152.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 44.8N 157.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       261800Z --- 51.5N 172.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    232100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 148.5E.
    23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
    15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z
    AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
    (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 232100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 33.0N 148.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 433 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT,
    JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
    TIGHT COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE,
    SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH FAIR POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
    OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST
    VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE HAS HELPED AID IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES,
    WITH ALL AGENCIES AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) COMING IN
    AT A T5.0 - 90KTS. SATELLITE CONSENSUS CAME IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 95
    KNOTS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE
    CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 231606Z
       CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 231740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 15-20 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W WILL BEGIN RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
    AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
    HOURS. TOKAGE WILL
    REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS,
    REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
    THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN UPWELLING FROM COOLER WATER BELOW. BY TAU 36
    THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
    ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. THE SYSTEMS OVERALL
    CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. BY TAU 72
    TOKAGE WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    RAPIDLY ERODE THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS IT COMPLETES ETT, AND EMBEDS
    ITSELF WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL
    CHARACTERISTICS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140
    NM THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP
    TO TAU 48 BUT MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 80 TO
    95 KNOTS AT TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED
    SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON THE ROUNDING OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE
    CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW, WHICH
    LENDS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY
    FORECAST.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-24 06:28 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 20
    WP, 11, 2022082400,   , BEST,   0, 341N, 1486E,  95,  956, TY,  34, NEQ,  125,  120,   90,   90, 1007,  140,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082400,   , BEST,   0, 341N, 1486E,  95,  956, TY,  50, NEQ,   65,   65,   45,   45, 1007,  140,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082400,   , BEST,   0, 341N, 1486E,  95,  956, TY,  64, NEQ,   35,   35,   25,   25, 1007,  140,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-24 12:33 回复
返回
发新帖