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WTPN32 PGTW 222100 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 27.2N 151.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.2N 151.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 29.6N 150.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 32.1N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 34.1N 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 36.1N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 42.7N 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 151.1E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 767 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //WDPN32 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 27.2N 151.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 767 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS FORMATIVE BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SEMI-CIRCUALR EYE FEATURE IN THE 221811Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED EITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSETTING THE MODERATE VWS. WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: NONE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE NORHTWARD AFTER TAU 24, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABEL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AN COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM //2022-8-23 07:56 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 28.5N 150.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 150.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 31.0N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 33.7N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 35.6N 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 38.3N 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 47.0N 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 150.3E. 23AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 28.5N 150.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 684 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS NOW HAS A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIXES TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WITH WARM SST, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 222120Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 222030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 12, CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 40-KT COLD CORE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR AND EVEN SPREADING UP TO TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY OF GRADIENT WINDS INTRODUCED DURING ETT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-23 12:24 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 30.2N 149.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.2N 149.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 32.8N 149.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.1N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 38.0N 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 41.4N 154.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 47.8N 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 149.6E. 23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 30.2N 149.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 424 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TY 11W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS FLIRTED WITH EYE FORMATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 230530Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A 90NM DIAMETER CONVECTIVE CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES. BASED ON THE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 65 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 231149Z CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 230540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT FIRST INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 50 NM THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE OUTLIER WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 65 TO 85 KNOTS AT TAU 24 THUS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED AT THE UPPER RANGE OF FORECASTS CLOSE TO THE HWRF SOLUTION BASED ON THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF EYE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-23 06:19 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 149.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 149.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 34.1N 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 36.7N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 39.8N 152.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 43.1N 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 49.7N 169.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 32.2N 149.0E. 23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 446 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 31.6N 149.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 446 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TY 11W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS FROM 45 KNOTS AT 221200Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS AT 231200Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 9NM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES. WITH THE RECENT FORMATION OF A PERSISTENT EYE IN EIR IMAGERY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE JUMPED TO TO 77 TO 90 KNOTS. ADT ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED QUICKLY FROM 75 KNOTS AT 231210Z TO 90 KNOTS AT 231340Z. ADDITIONALLY, THE RAW T NUMBER HAS INCREASED TO 5.3 (ABOUT 95 KNOTS) WITH AN EYE TEMP OF +7.5C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON THE 231200Z DATA IS ASSESSED AT 80 KTS BUT IS CLEARLY TRENDING UP; THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A 231146Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 231149Z CIMSS ADT: 75 KTS AT 231210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WEAKEN AS IT FIRST INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TY 11W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT, BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 75 NM THROUGH TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 85 TO 90 KNOTS AT TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED HIGHER BASED ON THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND AND ROBUST OUTFLOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//=2022-8-24 06:27 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 148.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 148.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 35.4N 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 38.1N 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 41.1N 152.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 44.8N 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 51.5N 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 33.6N 148.5E. 23AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 433 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 33.0N 148.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 433 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHT COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH FAIR POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE HAS HELPED AID IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WITH ALL AGENCIES AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) COMING IN AT A T5.0 - 90KTS. SATELLITE CONSENSUS CAME IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 95 KNOTS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 231606Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 231740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W WILL BEGIN RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TOKAGE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN UPWELLING FROM COOLER WATER BELOW. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. THE SYSTEMS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. BY TAU 72 TOKAGE WILL MOVE INTO A REGION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RAPIDLY ERODE THE OVERALL SYSTEM AS IT COMPLETES ETT, AND EMBEDS ITSELF WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140 NM THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP TO TAU 48 BUT MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY RANGING FROM 80 TO 95 KNOTS AT TAU 24. HOWEVER, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON THE ROUNDING OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW, WHICH LENDS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-24 06:28 回复 -