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WTPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008 // RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 148.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 148.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 36.5N 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 39.3N 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 42.9N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 46.3N 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 148.8E. 24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 34.1N 148.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 415 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE HAS CONTINUED TO HELP IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WITH ALL AGENCIES RANGING BETWEEN A T4.5 AND T5.0, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 99 KTS AT 232247Z CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 232340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W HAS STARTED SLIGHTLY RECURVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. TY TOKAGE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PEAK INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BETWEEN 23-18Z AND 24-00Z. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEARING TAUS 36 AND 48, TY 11W WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND THE SYSTEMS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN. BY TAU 48, TY TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ETT, AS IT EMBEDS ITSELF WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A STRONG GALE-FORCED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140NM THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP TO TAU 48. GFS AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNTIL ETT HAPPENS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM A MAINTENANCE ISSUE AT FNMOC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-24 12:35 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 35.2N 149.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 149.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 37.7N 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 40.8N 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 44.7N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 48.6N 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 149.4E. 24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 35.2N 149.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 421 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN EXPANDING 17NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STEADY OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED IN THE 240602Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS EROSION OF THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE CORE CONVECTION AND EYE FOR NOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 240324Z CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 240540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 70NM AT TAU 24 TO 90NM AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AFTER TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//=2022-8-24 06:15 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 149.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 149.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 39.0N 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 42.7N 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 46.8N 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 241500Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 150.2E. 24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 36.2N 149.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 469 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED 10NM EYE AND DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE CORE CONVECTION AND WEAK EYE FOR NOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 241126Z ASCAT-B IMAGE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 241123Z CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 241140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 50NM OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AFTER TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 06:32 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 37.1N 150.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.1N 150.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 40.4N 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 44.4N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 48.4N 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.1E. 24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 37.1N 150.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME ABOUT ENTERING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM OUTFLOW REMAINS DISTINCT FROM THE JETSTREAM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST--FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED-- JTWC SWITCHED FIXING METHODS FROM EYE TO EMBEDDED CENTER--BUT THE CORE REMAINS SYMMETRIC. THERE IS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF DRYING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED FROM THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE IT HAS NOT YET BEGUN ACCELERATION ALONG TRACK. THE LLCC IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOL WATERS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING SPLITS THE JTWC AND JMA FIXES, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75KTS BASED ON A CI OF T4.5 FROM JTWC AND ADT. THE INTENSITY ALSO REFLECTS A 5MB RISE IN MSLP SINCE THE 12Z POSITION AND IS COHERENT WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECAYING SCENARIO. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM AN EXCELLENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS AT 241126Z. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 241546Z CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 241740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: TY 11W WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SEA WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS WILL REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TOKAGE TRACKS INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE ENCROACHING WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS ROUNDING THE WESTERNMOST AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS MOMENT AND WILL SOON ACCELERATE AND SHOOT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. ALONG WITH THAT PROCESS COMES THE PACKAGE DEAL OF INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, STRETCHING OF THE GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY FIELDS, DIABATIC COOLING, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL PLUNGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ABUNDANT ENERGY AVAILABLE FROM THE UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A GALE FORCE LOW ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THICKNESS AND PHASED-BASED GUIDANCE FROM FSU INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL PROCEED MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AUTUMN YET. NONETHELESS THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST RIDES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN AS WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 06:34 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 151.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 151.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 42.5N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 46.6N 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 39.6N 152.4E. 25AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 38.7N 151.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT SOMEONE FINALLY DRUG THE DRUMMER OUT OF THE BACK OF THE VAN AND GOT THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PARTY GOING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG TRACK HAS NEARLY DOUBLED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN TIGHTLY WOUND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE STORM ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF FUSION WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET. A JETMAX DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROF IS EXPEDITING THE PROCESS. POSITIONING IS BASED ON 242332 GMI SERIES. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS SLIGHTY ABOVE AGENC DVORAK ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE EVIDENT DECAYING TREND AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS SHOWING IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ADT AND SATCON TRENDS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E AND BEGINNING TO BE ACCELERATED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 2340Z CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 242040Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS IS ACCELERATING. TY 11W WILL ENCOUNTER MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AND ACCELERATE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THICKNESS AND 500MB VORTICITY CHARTS INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED NEAR TAU 24. FLORIDA STATE PHASE-BASED DIAGRAMS BASED ON GFS OUTPUT SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO. THE PROCESS IS PROCEEDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN TYPICAL DUE TO THE SEASON BECAUSE THE UPSTREAM AIR IS NOT AS SEVERELY DRY AND COLD AND THE JETSTREAM NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT WILL BE IN THE AUTUMN. TYPHOON TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ITS ETT AND TRACK TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AS A GALE FORCE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH THIS STORM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NEAR THE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 12:20 回复 -