2210号强台风“蝎虎”(11W.Tokage) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-22 11:00 840

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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 21

    WTPN32 PGTW 240300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008 //
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       240000Z --- NEAR 34.1N 148.6E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 34.1N 148.6E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 36.5N 149.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 39.3N 151.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 42.9N 154.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 46.3N 160.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    240300Z POSITION NEAR 34.7N 148.8E.
    24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST
    OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
    PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
    31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 240300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 008//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 34.1N 148.6E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 415 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 31 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A TIGHTLY
    COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A 10NM SYMMETRIC EYE, WHICH LENDS
    HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    ARE STILL FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SST VALUES. THE PERSISTENT EYE
    HAS CONTINUED TO HELP IN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES, WITH ALL AGENCIES
    RANGING BETWEEN A T4.5 AND T5.0, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
    NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-
    SOUTHEAST.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    POSITIONED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 99 KTS AT 232247Z
       CIMSS ADT: 94 KTS AT 232340Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W HAS STARTED SLIGHTLY RECURVING TO THE
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. TY
    TOKAGE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO
    ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PEAK INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY
    OCCURRED BETWEEN 23-18Z AND 24-00Z. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE
    SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN ENCOUNTERING
    HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
    NEARING TAUS 36 AND 48, TY 11W WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    (ETT), AND THE SYSTEMS OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WILL WEAKEN. BY
    TAU 48, TY TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ETT, AS IT EMBEDS ITSELF WITHIN THE
    MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXHIBITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A
    STRONG GALE-FORCED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
    WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF LESS THAN 140NM THROUGH TAU
    48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL TRACK UP TO TAU 48. GFS
    AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS ALREADY
    OCCURRED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNTIL ETT HAPPENS. THE OVERALL
    INTENSITY CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE FROM A MAINTENANCE ISSUE AT FNMOC.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-24 12:35 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 22
    WP, 11, 2022082406,   , BEST,   0, 352N, 1490E,  90,  959, TY,  34, NEQ,  130,  130,  105,   95, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082406,   , BEST,   0, 352N, 1490E,  90,  959, TY,  50, NEQ,   70,   70,   55,   45, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082406,   , BEST,   0, 352N, 1490E,  90,  959, TY,  64, NEQ,   35,   35,   30,   25, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-24 06:14 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 23

    WTPN32 PGTW 240900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       240600Z --- NEAR 35.2N 149.0E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 35.2N 149.0E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       241800Z --- 37.7N 150.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 40.8N 153.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 44.7N 158.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 48.6N 166.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    240900Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 149.4E.
    24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST
    OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    240600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z
    AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
    (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 240900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 009//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 35.2N 149.0E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 421 NM EAST OF NARITA AIRPORT
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
    SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN EXPANDING 17NM ROUND
    EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STEADY OVERALL
    WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
    THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
    SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDLATITUDE
    WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS
    EVIDENCED IN THE 240602Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
    EROSION OF THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
    DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
    THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD
    OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING THE CORE CONVECTION
    AND EYE FOR NOW.
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A
    DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 98 KTS AT 240324Z
       CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 240540Z
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OVER
    THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
    BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING (25
    KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL
    TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT
    BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL
    CHARACTERISTICS.
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 70NM AT TAU 24
    TO 90NM AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH MORE
    UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. RELIABLE
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER,
    THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AFTER
    TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE LOW.
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//=
    2022-8-24 06:15 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 24
    WP, 11, 2022082412,   , BEST,   0, 362N, 1496E,  85,  963, TY,  34, NEQ,   85,  110,  110,   70, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082412,   , BEST,   0, 362N, 1496E,  85,  963, TY,  50, NEQ,   40,   60,   45,   35, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082412,   , BEST,   0, 362N, 1496E,  85,  963, TY,  64, NEQ,   20,   25,   20,   20, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-25 06:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 25

    WTPN32 PGTW 241500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       241200Z --- NEAR 36.2N 149.6E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 36.2N 149.6E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       250000Z --- 39.0N 151.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 42.7N 155.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 46.8N 162.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    241500Z POSITION NEAR 36.9N 150.2E.
    24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    241200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z
    AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS
    (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 241500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 010//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 36.2N 149.6E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 469 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY
    WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED 10NM EYE AND DEEP
    CONVECTION DISPLACED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
    IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MIDLATITUDE
    WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
    UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE
    WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND
    ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT, WHICH IS MAINTAINING
    THE CORE CONVECTION AND WEAK EYE FOR NOW.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
    DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 241126Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE AXIS OF A
    DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 241123Z
       CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 241140Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
       VWS: 25-30 KTS
       SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 11W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS OVER
    THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. TY 11W SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS
    IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND INCREASING
    (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COMMENCES EXTRA-TROPICAL
    TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT
    BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND GAINS
    FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
    GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD IN MULTI-MODEL
    SOLUTIONS OF 50NM OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELIABLE
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAPID WEAKENING AFTER TAU 12, HOWEVER,
    THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS AFTER
    TRANSITIONING TO A COLD-CORE LOW.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 06:32 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 26
    WP, 11, 2022082418,   , BEST,   0, 371N, 1504E,  75,  968, TY,  34, NEQ,   85,  115,  105,  100, 1006,  120,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082418,   , BEST,   0, 371N, 1504E,  75,  968, TY,  50, NEQ,   45,   60,   45,   35, 1006,  120,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082418,   , BEST,   0, 371N, 1504E,  75,  968, TY,  64, NEQ,   20,   20,   20,   20, 1006,  120,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-25 06:32 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 27

    WTPN32 PGTW 242100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       241800Z --- NEAR 37.1N 150.4E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 37.1N 150.4E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 40.4N 153.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 44.4N 158.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 48.4N 166.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    242100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.1E.
    24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
    IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 242100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 37.1N 150.4E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME ABOUT ENTERING THE
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM OUTFLOW REMAINS DISTINCT FROM THE JETSTREAM
    APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST--FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ANIMATED
    INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED-- JTWC SWITCHED FIXING
    METHODS FROM EYE TO EMBEDDED CENTER--BUT THE CORE REMAINS SYMMETRIC.
    THERE IS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF DRYING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED FROM
    THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE IT HAS NOT YET BEGUN ACCELERATION
    ALONG TRACK. THE LLCC IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOL
    WATERS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING SPLITS THE JTWC AND JMA FIXES,
    WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75KTS
    BASED ON A CI OF T4.5 FROM JTWC AND ADT. THE INTENSITY ALSO
    REFLECTS A 5MB RISE IN MSLP SINCE THE 12Z POSITION AND IS COHERENT
    WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECAYING SCENARIO.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM AN EXCELLENT
    SCATTEROMETRY PASS AT 241126Z.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
    ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 241546Z
       CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 241740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: TY 11W WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SEA WATERS
    DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS
    WILL REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TOKAGE TRACKS INTO
    MUCH COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE ENCROACHING
    WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
    ROUNDING THE WESTERNMOST AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS
    MOMENT AND WILL SOON ACCELERATE AND SHOOT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
    ALONG WITH THAT PROCESS COMES THE PACKAGE DEAL OF INCREASING
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, STRETCHING OF THE GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY
    FIELDS, DIABATIC COOLING, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALTHOUGH THE
    INTENSITY WILL PLUNGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ABUNDANT ENERGY
    AVAILABLE FROM THE UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM
    AS A GALE FORCE LOW ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THICKNESS
    AND PHASED-BASED GUIDANCE FROM FSU INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL
    PROCEED MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
    IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AUTUMN YET. NONETHELESS THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE
    COMPLETED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND
    INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST RIDES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN AS WELL.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 06:34 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 28
    WP, 11, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 387N, 1515E,  70,  973, TY,  34, NEQ,  110,  120,   95,   75, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 387N, 1515E,  70,  973, TY,  50, NEQ,   55,   60,   45,   35, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 387N, 1515E,  70,  973, TY,  64, NEQ,   20,   20,   20,   20, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-25 12:18 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 29

    WTPN32 PGTW 250300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       250000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 151.5E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 151.5E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 42.5N 155.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 46.6N 161.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    250300Z POSITION NEAR 39.6N 152.4E.
    25AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST
    OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    250000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 250300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 38.7N 151.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT SOMEONE
    FINALLY DRUG THE DRUMMER OUT OF THE BACK OF THE VAN AND GOT THE
    EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PARTY GOING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
    HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
    NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE SPEED OF
    ADVANCE ALONG TRACK HAS NEARLY DOUBLED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN TIGHTLY WOUND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE STORM ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF FUSION
    WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET. A JETMAX DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A
    SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROF IS EXPEDITING THE PROCESS. POSITIONING IS
    BASED ON 242332 GMI SERIES. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS SLIGHTY
    ABOVE AGENC DVORAK ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE EVIDENT DECAYING TREND
    AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS SHOWING IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, WHICH IS
    SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ADT AND SATCON TRENDS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT
    THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E AND BEGINNING TO BE
    ACCELERATED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 2340Z
       CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 242040Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
    ARE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS IS
    ACCELERATING. TY 11W WILL ENCOUNTER MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AND ACCELERATE ITS
    SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THICKNESS AND 500MB
    VORTICITY CHARTS INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED NEAR
    TAU 24. FLORIDA STATE PHASE-BASED DIAGRAMS BASED ON GFS OUTPUT
    SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO. THE PROCESS IS PROCEEDING A LITTLE SLOWER
    THAN TYPICAL DUE TO THE SEASON BECAUSE THE UPSTREAM AIR IS NOT AS
    SEVERELY DRY AND COLD AND THE JETSTREAM NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT WILL
    BE IN THE AUTUMN. TYPHOON TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ITS ETT AND TRACK
    TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AS A GALE FORCE LOW.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH
    THIS STORM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS ON THE
    MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NEAR THE MEAN.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 12:20 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 30
    WP, 11, 2022082506,   , BEST,   0, 404N, 1528E,  55,  982, TS,  34, NEQ,  110,  120,  100,   75, 1007,  140,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082506,   , BEST,   0, 404N, 1528E,  55,  982, TS,  50, NEQ,   55,   60,   50,    0, 1007,  140,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-25 08:38 回复
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