最新回复 (35)
-
WTPN32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 40.4N 152.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 40.4N 152.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 44.0N 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 48.0N 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 41.3N 153.9E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 40.4N 152.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL STORM, PER AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION DATA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BUT VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE MSI REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRONTAL BAND LINGERING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI AND A QUASI-MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 250538Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF AVAILABLE AGENCY FIXES, OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND A 250216Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, ALONG THE GRADIENT OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A 200MB JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN THE INTERMEDIATE SUBTROPICAL PHASE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY HAVING FEATURES OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH HIGH VWS, AND COOL SSTS BEING MARGINALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 250306Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 250540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 23-24 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING TO THE NORTH. WHILE CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, GALE-FORCE LOW AS IT TAKES ON INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, IS SMOTHERED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, IS SHEARED APART BY RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND EMBEDS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED 200MB JET STREAK AND 500MB TROUGH. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH GFS AND HWRF BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH DROPS THE SYSTEM TO JUST 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS CURRENTLY IN PLAY, THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING, AND LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN2022-8-25 08:40 回复 -
-
WTPN32 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 42.4N 155.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 26 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 155.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 46.2N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 49.6N 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 43.3N 156.4E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SYSTEM, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), RAPIDLY TRANSITING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 251106Z ASCAT BULLSEYE INDICATED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. JTWC MANUAL AND AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS A WARM CORE, AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT AND COLD SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING HOWEVER TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT STARTS TO COME IN-PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, EMBEDS UNDER A 200MB JET STREAK AND DEVELOPS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A GALE-FORCE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING OF THIS SYSTEM.// NNNN2022-8-26 04:32 回复 -
-
-