2210号强台风“蝎虎”(11W.Tokage) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-22 11:00 840

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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 31

    WTPN32 PGTW 250900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013
       DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       250600Z --- NEAR 40.4N 152.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 40.4N 152.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 44.0N 157.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 48.0N 165.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    250900Z POSITION NEAR 41.3N 153.9E.
    25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530
    NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 250900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR
    013//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 40.4N 152.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TS 11W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
    STORM, PER AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION DATA. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BUT VERY
    WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED
    CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE MSI REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF WEAK
    FRONTAL BAND LINGERING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI AND A QUASI-MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A
    250538Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
    KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF
    AVAILABLE AGENCY FIXES, OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND A 250216Z AMSR2 WIND
    SPEED ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
    THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    NORTH, ALONG THE GRADIENT OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
    200MB JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN THE
    INTERMEDIATE SUBTROPICAL PHASE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY HAVING
    FEATURES OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
    ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH HIGH VWS, AND
    COOL SSTS BEING MARGINALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ENHANCED
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 250306Z
       CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 250540Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY
    NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    ALONG THE INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH
    AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING TO THE NORTH. WHILE
    CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, IT IS
    EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, GALE-FORCE
    LOW AS IT TAKES ON INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, IS
    SMOTHERED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, IS SHEARED APART BY RAPIDLY
    INCREASING VWS AND EMBEDS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED 200MB JET STREAK
    AND 500MB TROUGH.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL ALONG AND
    CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
    RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH GFS AND HWRF
    BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH
    DROPS THE SYSTEM TO JUST 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
    DYNAMICS CURRENTLY IN PLAY, THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
    WEAKENING, AND LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 08:40 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 32
    WP, 11, 2022082512,   , BEST,   0, 424N, 1549E,  45,  988, TS,  34, NEQ,  105,  160,    0,    0, 1009,  155,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-26 04:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 33

    WTPN32 PGTW 251500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       251200Z --- NEAR 42.4N 155.0E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 155.0E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 46.2N 160.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 35 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 49.6N 169.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    251500Z POSITION NEAR 43.3N 156.4E.
    25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632
    NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
    26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SYSTEM, WITH A FULLY
    EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), RAPIDLY TRANSITING
    NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 251106Z ASCAT BULLSEYE INDICATED A HIGHLY
    ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN
    HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
    QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. JTWC MANUAL AND AUTOMATED
    PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A HYBRID
    TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE, SUCH AS A WARM CORE, AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS
    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT AND COLD SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE SYSTEM IS
    RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING HOWEVER TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
    STARTS TO COME IN-PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, EMBEDS UNDER A
    200MB JET STREAK AND DEVELOPS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
    ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A GALE-FORCE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
    THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
    WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
    10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING OF THIS
    SYSTEM.//
    NNNN
    2022-8-26 04:32 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 34
    WP, 11, 2022082518,   , BEST,   0, 446N, 1577E,  40,  994, TS,  34, NEQ,   95,  130,   85,   45, 1010,  180,  70,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-26 04:33 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 35
    WP, 11, 2022082600,   , BEST,   0, 466N, 1611E,  40, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,  115,  105,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  70,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-26 04:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 36
    WP, 11, 2022082606,   , BEST,   0, 488N, 1657E,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,   85,  125,    0,    0, 1012,  155,  70,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-26 05:35 回复
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