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WP, 99, 2022082112, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1511E, 20, 1003, DB,
最后于 2022-8-27 05:20
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(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 151.4E APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211909Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ITS MAIN CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) SHEAR OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003MB.2022-8-22 01:58 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 220900 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 151.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 151.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 27.2N 151.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 30.0N 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 32.0N 149.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 33.8N 149.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 36.2N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 151.6E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // BT #0001 NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.9N 151.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 880 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 220541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE, WITH INTENSE BANDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING IN A COMMA-SHAPED ARC FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 212311Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE MEANWHILE REVEALED A TIGHT LLCC WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST AND AN RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF 25 KNOT OR HIGHER WINDS EXTENDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH A PATCH OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS DATA AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO HEDGE ABOVE THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIX INTENSITIES. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, AS THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) PROVIDING VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, SUPPORTED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: NONE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS CURRENTLY MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TURN THE RUDDER OVER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, BEFORE THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOME IN-PHASE WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF JAPAN AND CROSS OVER COLDER WATERS, MARKING THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 96. IN TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AFTER TAU 24, AND SHOULD BUT THE BRAKES ON ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH ALL OTHER PARAMETERS BEING GENERALLY FAVORABLE. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS IT WILL START TO BE IMPACTED BY SOME NORTHERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE 200MB LEVEL, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS, WILL LEAD TO GENERALIZED WEAKENING FROM THERE TO THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL DATA IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT PRESENT DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, THUS THE FORECAST IS GENERATED USING GLOBAL MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS, BOTH IN TERMS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE ONLY TRACKER AVAILABLE IS THE GFS, BUT FIELD ANALYSIS OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGEST THEY ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE GFS TRACK FOR NOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF SPECIFIC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. SIMILARLY FOR INTENSITY GUIDANCE, JTWC IS CURRENTLY LIMITED, BUT THE DECAY-SHIPS GFS SUGGESTED A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS, WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AND THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-22 06:18 回复 -
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WTPN32 PGTW 221500 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 26.1N 151.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 151.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 28.5N 150.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 30.9N 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 32.9N 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 34.8N 149.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 41.0N 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 45.6N 157.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 151.5E. 22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // BT #0001 NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 151.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 828 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON A SHRIMP-LIKE STRUCTURE, WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS OBSCURED BY AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTION, DISTINCT FROM THE EASTERN BAND. THE MOST RECENT EIR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A BANDING EYE FEATURE, WITH SOME WEAK HOT TOWERS STARTING TO ROTATE AROUND THE ASSESSED CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY BUT AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 220830Z PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR AN EXTRAPOLATION, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES AND THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AS IT TRACKS MORE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE SYSTEM, AS IT LIES BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE EAST, WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW VWS. SSTS ARE QUITE WARM AS WELL, RUNNING ABOUT 29-30C. WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 221210Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: NONE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS COMING TOGETHER NICELY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL BANDING EYE AND TAKING ON THE CLASSIC SHRIMP SHAPE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST SLIDES A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BUILDS. TS 11W WILL TRACK UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 60 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVE UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG 200MB JET MAX ASSOCIATED 500MB MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS. TS 11W HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, BEFORE THE TUTT DISSIPATES TO THE WEST AND THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS OCCURS THE NET OUTFLOW WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE, PUTTING A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION. ONCE THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS TO BE IMPACTED BY DRAMATICALLY INCREASED SHEAR AND QUICKLY DECREASING SSTS, IT WILL START A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE FORCE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH AVAILABLE TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND THE ECENS AND GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN TIGHTLY FOCUSED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, AS IS NORMAL FOR RECURVING SYSTEMS, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK, WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MISSING FOR THE MOST PART, WITH ONLY THE COTC AND CTCX TRACKERS AVAILABLE. WITH ONLY TWO TRACKERS AVAILABLE, AND SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN 50 AND 75 KNOTS, THE JTWC FORECAST HAS INCREASED A BIT BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS, BUT REMAINS BELOW THE HIGHEST MODEL ESTIMATES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN2022-8-23 07:55 回复 -