2210号强台风“蝎虎”(11W.Tokage) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-22 11:00 840






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WP, 99, 2022082112, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1511E, 20, 1003, DB,
最后于 2022-8-27 05:20 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 2
    WP, 99, 2022082112,   , BEST,   0, 226N, 1511E,  20, 1003, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    2022-8-22 11:00 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 3
    WP, 99, 2022082118,   , BEST,   0, 233N, 1514E,  20, 1003, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    2022-8-22 11:00 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 4

    (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 151.4E APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211909Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ITS MAIN CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) SHEAR OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003MB.
    2022-8-22 01:58 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 5
    WP, 99, 2022082200,   , BEST,   0, 241N, 1516E,  20, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  , 
    2022-8-22 01:58 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 6
    WP, 11, 2022082206,   , BEST,   0, 249N, 1517E,  40,  998, TS,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  ,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, wp992022 to wp112022, 
    2022-8-22 06:09 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 7

    WTPN32 PGTW 220900
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 001
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       220600Z --- NEAR 24.9N 151.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 151.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       221800Z --- 27.2N 151.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 15 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       230600Z --- 30.0N 150.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       231800Z --- 32.0N 149.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       240600Z --- 33.8N 149.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 36.2N 150.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 43.0N 154.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    220900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 151.6E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880
    NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
    AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 220900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W
    (TOKAGE) WARNING
    NR 001//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 24.9N 151.7E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 880 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
    DISCUSSION: TS TOKAGE HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
    INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN THE OPEN WATERS
    EAST OF JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
    (MSI) DEPICTS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
    INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
    A 220541Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE MUCH
    IMPROVED STRUCTURE, WITH INTENSE BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
    ACTIVITY WRAPPING IN A COMMA-SHAPED ARC FROM WEST TO
    SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 212311Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE MEANWHILE
    REVEALED A TIGHT LLCC WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST AND AN
    RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF 25 KNOT OR HIGHER WINDS EXTENDING
    THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH A PATCH OF 35 KNOT
    WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS DATA AND THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    SCATTEROMETER DATA, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO HEDGE ABOVE
    THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIX INTENSITIES. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
    NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION,
    AS THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
    EAST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) PROVIDING
    VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, SUPPORTED BY WARM
    (29-30C) SSTS.
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
    DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
       KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: NONE
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING
    AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS CURRENTLY MOVING
    RELATIVELY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
    DEEP STR TO THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE
    RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
    AND TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TURN THE RUDDER OVER TO THE
    NORTHWEST. THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, BEFORE THE SYSTEM WILL
    ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
    OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE
    REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
    WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
    BECOME IN-PHASE WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF
    JAPAN AND CROSS OVER COLDER WATERS, MARKING THE ONSET
    OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), WHICH IS EXPECTED
    TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 96. IN TERMS OF
    INTENSIFICATION, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STEADY
    INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
    OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AFTER TAU 24, AND SHOULD
    BUT THE BRAKES ON ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH ALL
    OTHER PARAMETERS BEING GENERALLY FAVORABLE. AS THE
    SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS IT WILL START TO BE IMPACTED
    BY SOME NORTHERLY, CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE 200MB LEVEL,
    WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS,
    WILL LEAD TO GENERALIZED WEAKENING FROM THERE TO THE END
    OF THE FORECAST.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL DATA IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT PRESENT
    DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, THUS THE FORECAST IS
    GENERATED USING GLOBAL MODEL FIELD ANALYSIS, BOTH IN TERMS
    OF TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE ONLY TRACKER AVAILABLE IS THE
    GFS, BUT FIELD ANALYSIS OF BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
    MODELS SUGGEST THEY ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
    TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE GFS TRACK FOR NOW,
    BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF SPECIFIC GUIDANCE
    AT THIS TIME. SIMILARLY FOR INTENSITY GUIDANCE, JTWC IS
    CURRENTLY LIMITED, BUT THE DECAY-SHIPS GFS SUGGESTED A
    PEAK OF 65 KNOTS, WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT SEEMS
    UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AND THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
    PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 48. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER DUE
    TO THE LACK OF GUIDANCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-22 06:18 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 8
    WP, 11, 2022082212,   , BEST,   0, 261N, 1517E,  45,  998, TS,  34, NEQ,   60,   60,    0,    0, 1009,  200,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, M, 
    2022-8-23 07:54 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 9

    WTPN32 PGTW 221500
    SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 002
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       221200Z --- NEAR 26.1N 151.7E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 151.7E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       230000Z --- 28.5N 150.9E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       231200Z --- 30.9N 150.0E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       240000Z --- 32.9N 149.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 10 KTS
        ---
       EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
       48 HRS, VALID AT:
       241200Z --- 34.8N 149.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
        ---
       72 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 41.0N 152.5E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
        ---
       LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
        ---
       96 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 45.6N 157.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    221500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7N 151.5E.
    22AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828
    NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    BT
    #0001
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 221500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE)
    WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 26.7N 151.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 828 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
    THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN ON A SHRIMP-LIKE STRUCTURE, WITH AN ELONGATED
    AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS OBSCURED BY AN AREA OF SYMMETRICAL DEEP
    CONVECTION, DISTINCT FROM THE EASTERN BAND. THE MOST RECENT EIR
    IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A
    BANDING EYE FEATURE, WITH SOME WEAK HOT TOWERS STARTING TO
    ROTATE AROUND THE ASSESSED CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT
    MICROWAVE IMAGERY BUT AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
    220830Z PROVIDED A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR AN EXTRAPOLATION,
    LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    THE OVERALL OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES AND THE EARLIER
    SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE
    SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO PICK UP SOME SPEED
    AS IT TRACKS MORE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
    VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE SYSTEM, AS IT LIES BETWEEN
    A WEAKENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE
    WEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE EAST, WHICH IS
    PRODUCING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM
    AND LOW VWS. SSTS ARE QUITE WARM AS WELL, RUNNING ABOUT 29-30C.
    
    WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
       KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
       CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 221210Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
       VWS: 10-15 KTS
       SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: NONE
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
    FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
    THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS COMING TOGETHER NICELY UNDER
    FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, DEVELOPING A POTENTIAL
    BANDING EYE AND TAKING ON THE CLASSIC SHRIMP SHAPE ASSOCIATED
    WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
    TURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
    STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST SLIDES A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
    BUILDS. TS 11W WILL TRACK UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, AND
    ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 48, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
    ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF
    THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 60 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
    WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVE UNDER
    THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG 200MB JET MAX ASSOCIATED 500MB
    MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
    ETT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
    RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS. TS
    11W HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE
    UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN, BEFORE THE TUTT DISSIPATES TO THE
    WEST AND THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES DIRECTLY OVER
    THE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS OCCURS THE NET OUTFLOW WILL ACTUALLY
    DECREASE, PUTTING A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION. ONCE THE SYSTEM
    ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS TO BE IMPACTED BY DRAMATICALLY
    INCREASED SHEAR AND QUICKLY DECREASING SSTS, IT WILL START A RAPID
    WEAKENING TREND, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE FORCE LOW.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE
    REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH AVAILABLE TRACK AND INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC.
    HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND THE ECENS AND GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN
    TIGHTLY FOCUSED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CROSS-TRACK ENVELOPE. HOWEVER,
    AS IS NORMAL FOR RECURVING SYSTEMS, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
    ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE
    AXIS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK,
    WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 48, WITH MEDIUM
    CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MISSING FOR THE MOST PART, WITH
    ONLY THE COTC AND CTCX TRACKERS AVAILABLE. WITH ONLY TWO TRACKERS
    AVAILABLE, AND SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN 50 AND 75 KNOTS,
    THE JTWC FORECAST HAS INCREASED A BIT BASED ON THE RECENT TRENDS,
    BUT REMAINS BELOW THE HIGHEST MODEL ESTIMATES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
    DUE TO THE LACK OF GUIDANCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
       TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
       INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    NNNN
    2022-8-23 07:55 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 10
    WP, 11, 2022082218,   , BEST,   0, 272N, 1513E,  55,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,   75,   65,   50,   60, 1009,  210,  25,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    WP, 11, 2022082218,   , BEST,   0, 272N, 1513E,  55,  996, TS,  50, NEQ,   25,   20,    0,    0, 1009,  210,  25,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-23 07:55 回复
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