2210号强台风“蝎虎”(11W.Tokage) 热带气旋档案

CMG ygsj24 2022-8-22 11:00 1214






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WP, 99, 2022082112, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1511E, 20, 1003, DB,
最后于 2022-8-27 05:20 被ygsj24编辑 ,原因:
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  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 36
    WP, 11, 2022082606,   , BEST,   0, 488N, 1657E,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,   85,  125,    0,    0, 1012,  155,  70,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-26 05:35 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 35
    WP, 11, 2022082600,   , BEST,   0, 466N, 1611E,  40, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,  115,  105,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  70,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-26 04:53 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 34
    WP, 11, 2022082518,   , BEST,   0, 446N, 1577E,  40,  994, TS,  34, NEQ,   95,  130,   85,   45, 1010,  180,  70,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE,  , 
    2022-8-26 04:33 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 33

    WTPN32 PGTW 251500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       251200Z --- NEAR 42.4N 155.0E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 155.0E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 46.2N 160.7E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 35 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       261200Z --- 49.6N 169.8E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    251500Z POSITION NEAR 43.3N 156.4E.
    25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632
    NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
    26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SYSTEM, WITH A FULLY
    EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), RAPIDLY TRANSITING
    NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 251106Z ASCAT BULLSEYE INDICATED A HIGHLY
    ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN
    HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN
    QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. JTWC MANUAL AND AUTOMATED
    PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A HYBRID
    TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL
    CYCLONE, SUCH AS A WARM CORE, AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS
    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT AND COLD SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE SYSTEM IS
    RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING HOWEVER TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
    STARTS TO COME IN-PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, EMBEDS UNDER A
    200MB JET STREAK AND DEVELOPS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
    ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A GALE-FORCE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
    THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
    WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
    10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING OF THIS
    SYSTEM.//
    NNNN
    2022-8-26 04:32 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 32
    WP, 11, 2022082512,   , BEST,   0, 424N, 1549E,  45,  988, TS,  34, NEQ,  105,  160,    0,    0, 1009,  155,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-26 04:29 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 31

    WTPN32 PGTW 250900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013
       DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       250600Z --- NEAR 40.4N 152.8E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
         POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 40.4N 152.8E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 44.0N 157.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 48.0N 165.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    250900Z POSITION NEAR 41.3N 153.9E.
    25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530
    NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 250900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR
    013//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 40.4N 152.8E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TS 11W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
    STORM, PER AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION DATA. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BUT VERY
    WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED
    CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE MSI REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF WEAK
    FRONTAL BAND LINGERING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE
    INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI AND A QUASI-MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A
    250538Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
    KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF
    AVAILABLE AGENCY FIXES, OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND A 250216Z AMSR2 WIND
    SPEED ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
    THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
    NORTH, ALONG THE GRADIENT OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
    200MB JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN THE
    INTERMEDIATE SUBTROPICAL PHASE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY HAVING
    FEATURES OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
    ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH HIGH VWS, AND
    COOL SSTS BEING MARGINALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ENHANCED
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
       RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 250306Z
       CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 250540Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 23-24 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY
    NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    ALONG THE INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH
    AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING TO THE NORTH. WHILE
    CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, IT IS
    EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, GALE-FORCE
    LOW AS IT TAKES ON INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, IS
    SMOTHERED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, IS SHEARED APART BY RAPIDLY
    INCREASING VWS AND EMBEDS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED 200MB JET STREAK
    AND 500MB TROUGH.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
    AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL ALONG AND
    CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
    RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH GFS AND HWRF
    BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH
    DROPS THE SYSTEM TO JUST 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
    DYNAMICS CURRENTLY IN PLAY, THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
    WEAKENING, AND LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 08:40 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 30
    WP, 11, 2022082506,   , BEST,   0, 404N, 1528E,  55,  982, TS,  34, NEQ,  110,  120,  100,   75, 1007,  140,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082506,   , BEST,   0, 404N, 1528E,  55,  982, TS,  50, NEQ,   55,   60,   50,    0, 1007,  140,  45,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-25 08:38 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 29

    WTPN32 PGTW 250300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       250000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 151.5E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 151.5E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       251200Z --- 42.5N 155.2E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       260000Z --- 46.6N 161.6E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    250300Z POSITION NEAR 39.6N 152.4E.
    25AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST
    OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    250000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 250300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 38.7N 151.5E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT SOMEONE
    FINALLY DRUG THE DRUMMER OUT OF THE BACK OF THE VAN AND GOT THE
    EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PARTY GOING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
    HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
    NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE SPEED OF
    ADVANCE ALONG TRACK HAS NEARLY DOUBLED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN TIGHTLY WOUND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
    SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE STORM ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF FUSION
    WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET. A JETMAX DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A
    SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROF IS EXPEDITING THE PROCESS. POSITIONING IS
    BASED ON 242332 GMI SERIES. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS SLIGHTY
    ABOVE AGENC DVORAK ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE EVIDENT DECAYING TREND
    AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS SHOWING IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, WHICH IS
    SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ADT AND SATCON TRENDS.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT
    THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E AND BEGINNING TO BE
    ACCELERATED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 2340Z
       CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 242040Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
    ARE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS IS
    ACCELERATING. TY 11W WILL ENCOUNTER MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AND ACCELERATE ITS
    SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THICKNESS AND 500MB
    VORTICITY CHARTS INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED NEAR
    TAU 24. FLORIDA STATE PHASE-BASED DIAGRAMS BASED ON GFS OUTPUT
    SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO. THE PROCESS IS PROCEEDING A LITTLE SLOWER
    THAN TYPICAL DUE TO THE SEASON BECAUSE THE UPSTREAM AIR IS NOT AS
    SEVERELY DRY AND COLD AND THE JETSTREAM NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT WILL
    BE IN THE AUTUMN. TYPHOON TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ITS ETT AND TRACK
    TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AS A GALE FORCE LOW.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH
    THIS STORM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS ON THE
    MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NEAR THE MEAN.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 12:20 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 28
    WP, 11, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 387N, 1515E,  70,  973, TY,  34, NEQ,  110,  120,   95,   75, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 387N, 1515E,  70,  973, TY,  50, NEQ,   55,   60,   45,   35, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    WP, 11, 2022082500,   , BEST,   0, 387N, 1515E,  70,  973, TY,  64, NEQ,   20,   20,   20,   20, 1007,  140,  12,   0,  15,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     TOKAGE, D, 
    2022-8-25 12:18 回复
  • ygsj24 CMG
    0 引用 27

    WTPN32 PGTW 242100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011//
    RMKS/
    1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011
       02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
        ---
       WARNING POSITION:
       241800Z --- NEAR 37.1N 150.4E
         MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
         POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
         POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
       PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       REPEAT POSIT: 37.1N 150.4E
        ---
       FORECASTS:
       12 HRS, VALID AT:
       250600Z --- 40.4N 153.3E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS
        ---
       24 HRS, VALID AT:
       251800Z --- 44.4N 158.4E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
       VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS
        ---
       36 HRS, VALID AT:
       260600Z --- 48.4N 166.1E
       MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
       WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
       EXTRATROPICAL
       RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
        ---
    REMARKS:
    242100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.1E.
    24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST-
    SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
    IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
    FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
    //
    NNNN
    WDPN32 PGTW 242100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011//
    RMKS/
    1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
    2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    
    SUMMARY:
       INITIAL POSITION: 37.1N 150.4E
       INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
       GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB
       MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET
    
    SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME ABOUT ENTERING THE
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM OUTFLOW REMAINS DISTINCT FROM THE JETSTREAM
    APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST--FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ANIMATED
    INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED-- JTWC SWITCHED FIXING
    METHODS FROM EYE TO EMBEDDED CENTER--BUT THE CORE REMAINS SYMMETRIC.
    THERE IS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF DRYING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED FROM
    THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    (LLCC) HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE IT HAS NOT YET BEGUN ACCELERATION
    ALONG TRACK. THE LLCC IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOL
    WATERS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING SPLITS THE JTWC AND JMA FIXES,
    WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75KTS
    BASED ON A CI OF T4.5 FROM JTWC AND ADT. THE INTENSITY ALSO
    REFLECTS A 5MB RISE IN MSLP SINCE THE 12Z POSITION AND IS COHERENT
    WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECAYING SCENARIO.
    
    INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM AN EXCELLENT
    SCATTEROMETRY PASS AT 241126Z.
    
    CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS
    ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E.
    
    AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
       PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
       RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
       CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 241546Z
       CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 241740Z
    
    FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    UNFAVORABLE
       VWS: 20-25 KTS
       SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
       OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
       OTHER FACTORS: TY 11W WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SEA WATERS
    DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
    
    ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
       INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
       INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
       INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
    3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
    FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS
    WILL REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TOKAGE TRACKS INTO
    MUCH COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE ENCROACHING
    WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS
    ROUNDING THE WESTERNMOST AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS
    MOMENT AND WILL SOON ACCELERATE AND SHOOT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
    ALONG WITH THAT PROCESS COMES THE PACKAGE DEAL OF INCREASING
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, STRETCHING OF THE GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY
    FIELDS, DIABATIC COOLING, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALTHOUGH THE
    INTENSITY WILL PLUNGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ABUNDANT ENERGY
    AVAILABLE FROM THE UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM
    AS A GALE FORCE LOW ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THICKNESS
    AND PHASED-BASED GUIDANCE FROM FSU INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL
    PROCEED MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING
    IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AUTUMN YET. NONETHELESS THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE
    COMPLETED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60.
    
    MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND
    INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST RIDES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN AS WELL.
    
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
       TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
       INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    NNNN
    2022-8-25 06:34 回复
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