__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
编扰资讯
WP, 99, 2022082112, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1511E, 20, 1003, DB,
最后于 2022-8-27 05:20
被ygsj24编辑
，原因：
最新回复 (35)
-
-
-
-
WTPN32 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 42.4N 155.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 26 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 155.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 46.2N 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 35 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 49.6N 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 43.3N 156.4E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SYSTEM, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), RAPIDLY TRANSITING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 251106Z ASCAT BULLSEYE INDICATED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS THAN 25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. JTWC MANUAL AND AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS A WARM CORE, AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, SUCH AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT AND COLD SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING HOWEVER TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT STARTS TO COME IN-PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, EMBEDS UNDER A 200MB JET STREAK AND DEVELOPS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS A GALE-FORCE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 28 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING OF THIS SYSTEM.// NNNN2022-8-26 04:32 回复 -
-
WTPN32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 40.4N 152.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 22 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 40.4N 152.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 44.0N 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 48.0N 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 41.3N 153.9E. 25AUG22. TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 250900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 40.4N 152.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TS 11W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL STORM, PER AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION DATA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BUT VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE MSI REVEALS THE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRONTAL BAND LINGERING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI AND A QUASI-MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 250538Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONGRUENCE OF AVAILABLE AGENCY FIXES, OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND A 250216Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, ALONG THE GRADIENT OF ENHANCED WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A 200MB JET STREAK APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS IN THE INTERMEDIATE SUBTROPICAL PHASE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY HAVING FEATURES OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH HIGH VWS, AND COOL SSTS BEING MARGINALLY OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 250306Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 250540Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 23-24 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING TO THE NORTH. WHILE CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TROPICAL-SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, IT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL, GALE-FORCE LOW AS IT TAKES ON INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, IS SMOTHERED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, IS SHEARED APART BY RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AND EMBEDS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED 200MB JET STREAK AND 500MB TROUGH. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH GFS AND HWRF BEING SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH DROPS THE SYSTEM TO JUST 20 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS CURRENTLY IN PLAY, THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING, AND LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN2022-8-25 08:40 回复 -
-
WTPN32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z --- NEAR 38.7N 151.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 38.7N 151.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 42.5N 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 46.6N 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250300Z POSITION NEAR 39.6N 152.4E. 25AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 38.7N 151.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 487 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT SOMEONE FINALLY DRUG THE DRUMMER OUT OF THE BACK OF THE VAN AND GOT THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PARTY GOING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND THE SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG TRACK HAS NEARLY DOUBLED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN TIGHTLY WOUND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE STORM ARE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF FUSION WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET. A JETMAX DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A SHALLOW SHORT WAVE TROF IS EXPEDITING THE PROCESS. POSITIONING IS BASED ON 242332 GMI SERIES. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS SLIGHTY ABOVE AGENC DVORAK ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE EVIDENT DECAYING TREND AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS SHOWING IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ADT AND SATCON TRENDS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO REFLECT THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TY 11W IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E AND BEGINNING TO BE ACCELERATED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 2340Z CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 242040Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE DROPPING PRECIPITOUSLY. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS IS ACCELERATING. TY 11W WILL ENCOUNTER MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AND ACCELERATE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THICKNESS AND 500MB VORTICITY CHARTS INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED NEAR TAU 24. FLORIDA STATE PHASE-BASED DIAGRAMS BASED ON GFS OUTPUT SUPPORT THAT SCENARIO. THE PROCESS IS PROCEEDING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN TYPICAL DUE TO THE SEASON BECAUSE THE UPSTREAM AIR IS NOT AS SEVERELY DRY AND COLD AND THE JETSTREAM NOT AS VIGOROUS AS IT WILL BE IN THE AUTUMN. TYPHOON TOKAGE WILL COMPLETE ITS ETT AND TRACK TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS AS A GALE FORCE LOW. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH THIS STORM OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NEAR THE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 12:20 回复 -
-
WTPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 37.1N 150.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 37.1N 150.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 40.4N 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 44.4N 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 33 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 48.4N 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.1E. 24AUG22. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MA-ON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNNWDPN32 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 37.1N 150.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 480 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE) IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME ABOUT ENTERING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM OUTFLOW REMAINS DISTINCT FROM THE JETSTREAM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST--FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS FILLED-- JTWC SWITCHED FIXING METHODS FROM EYE TO EMBEDDED CENTER--BUT THE CORE REMAINS SYMMETRIC. THERE IS THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF DRYING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED FROM THE UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS ROUNDED THE RIDGE IT HAS NOT YET BEGUN ACCELERATION ALONG TRACK. THE LLCC IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLY COOL WATERS. THE CURRENT POSITIONING SPLITS THE JTWC AND JMA FIXES, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75KTS BASED ON A CI OF T4.5 FROM JTWC AND ADT. THE INTENSITY ALSO REFLECTS A 5MB RISE IN MSLP SINCE THE 12Z POSITION AND IS COHERENT WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A DECAYING SCENARIO. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM AN EXCELLENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS AT 241126Z. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED NEAR 40N 170E. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 92 KTS AT 241546Z CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 241740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 26-27 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: TY 11W WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SEA WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PROCESS WILL REALLY RAMP UP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS TOKAGE TRACKS INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE ENCROACHING WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS ROUNDING THE WESTERNMOST AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS MOMENT AND WILL SOON ACCELERATE AND SHOOT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. ALONG WITH THAT PROCESS COMES THE PACKAGE DEAL OF INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, STRETCHING OF THE GRADIENT LEVEL VORTICITY FIELDS, DIABATIC COOLING, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL PLUNGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE ABUNDANT ENERGY AVAILABLE FROM THE UPSTREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A GALE FORCE LOW ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THICKNESS AND PHASED-BASED GUIDANCE FROM FSU INDICATE THE ETT PROCESS WILL PROCEED MORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AUTUMN YET. NONETHELESS THE ETT PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 60. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST RIDES THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE MEAN AS WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN2022-8-25 06:34 回复